2010年玉树7.1级地震趋势预测研究回顾
|
摘要
本文整理了自2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震至2010年4月14日玉树7.1级地震前,年度地震趋势预测和日常会商中提出的地震活动和前兆异常及其分析意见。结果表明,玉树7.1级地震前存在一些较为明确的有关地震活动水平和危险区域判定的预测依据,但由于玉树地区地震监测能力较弱,缺乏较为可靠的中短期前兆异常,因此未将该区划定为年度地震重点危险区,仅在我国大陆地震形势预测和强震主体活动地区估计上有所涉及。2010年青藏块体中东部地区强震危险性增强,但由于玉树地区震前地震活动性异常以平静为主,地震前兆数量也较少,因此未能在玉树7.1级地震前形成短临预测意见。
In the paper,we collected and analyzed seismicity and precursor anomalies and their analysis results on yearly earthquake tendency forecast and weekly/monthly consultations between Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake on May 12,2008 and Yushu M7.1 earthquake on April 14,2010.The results show that there were some explicit phenomena before the Yushu M7.1 earthquake,which forecasted the earthquake tendency and important seismic risk area in China mainland.But Yushu is in an area of poor monitoring capability,lacking the credible moderate-short term precursory anomalies,therefore the area was not judged to be the annual key regions with a certain seismic risk,only mentioned in the earthquake tendency and important seismic risk area in China mainland.The strong-earthquake risk in the middle and east parts of the Tibet block was enhanced in 2010.But seismicity anomalies in the Yushu area were mainly the quietude anomalies,and precursory anomalies were few.Therefore short term prediction for the Yushu M7.1 earthquake could not be made.
In the paper,we collected and analyzed seismicity and precursor anomalies and their analysis results on yearly earthquake tendency forecast and weekly/monthly consultations between Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake on May 12,2008 and Yushu M7.1 earthquake on April 14,2010.The results show that there were some explicit phenomena before the Yushu M7.1 earthquake,which forecasted the earthquake tendency and important seismic risk area in China mainland.But Yushu is in an area of poor monitoring capability,lacking the credible moderate-short term precursory anomalies,therefore the area was not judged to be the annual key regions with a certain seismic risk,only mentioned in the earthquake tendency and important seismic risk area in China mainland.The strong-earthquake risk in the middle and east parts of the Tibet block was enhanced in 2010.But seismicity anomalies in the Yushu area were mainly the quietude anomalies,and precursory anomalies were few.Therefore short term prediction for the Yushu M7.1 earthquake could not be made.
引文
[1]中国地震台网中心编.中国地震趋势预测研究(2009年度)[M].北京:地震出版社,2009.
[2]中国地震台网中心编.中国地震趋势预测研究(2010年度)[M].北京:地震出版社,2010.
[3]刘杰,郭铁栓,杨立明,等.汶川8.0级地震前地震趋势分析意见的回顾[J].地震,2009,29(1):40-52.
[4]薛艳,刘杰,梅世蓉,等.2008年汶川MS8.0地震前地震活动异常特征[J].地震学报,2009,31(6):606-619.
[2]中国地震台网中心编.中国地震趋势预测研究(2010年度)[M].北京:地震出版社,2010.
[3]刘杰,郭铁栓,杨立明,等.汶川8.0级地震前地震趋势分析意见的回顾[J].地震,2009,29(1):40-52.
[4]薛艳,刘杰,梅世蓉,等.2008年汶川MS8.0地震前地震活动异常特征[J].地震学报,2009,31(6):606-619.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心