中国城市地震灾害危险度评价
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摘要
应用中国历史上发生的M≥4的6759条地震信息和2000年中国672个城市的有关信息,采用中国城市近源地震等效震级M和城市地震灾害承灾体易损性指数CV,构建了中国城市地震灾害危险度指数WX,并编制了相应的分布图。研究表明:中国41.82%的城市历史上发生过M≥4的近源地震。CV高值城市的分布与我国城市群、城市带的分布并不一致。华北地区、台湾岛地区是我国城市高危险度的高密集区,其次是福建广东沿海、云南省、新疆天山山脉等地区。WX值在3.0以上的37个城市应作为国家减轻地震灾害的重点城市。
Based on 6759 historical earthquake records(M≥4) and socioeconomic database of 672 cities in China in 2000, the hazard index W(X) of earthquake for cities and urban regions in China were established using the (equivalent) magnitude M of earthquakes, and the vulnerability index C(V) of urban areas. Meanwhile the (corresponding) maps were set up. The analysis indicates:(1) Over 41.82% urban regions experienced near source earthquakes with equivalent magnitudes equal or above 4. (2) The urban regions of high value of vulnerability (index) are not corresponding to the distribution of metropolitan regions in China. (3) The high W(X) value regions are in North China and Taiwan Island, and the second high W(X) value regions are the coastal areas of Fujian and (Guangdong) provinces, the areas of Yunnan Province and Tianshan Mountain of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous (Region). The 37 cities of W(X)≥3.0 are the key cities for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation.
Based on 6759 historical earthquake records(M≥4) and socioeconomic database of 672 cities in China in 2000, the hazard index W(X) of earthquake for cities and urban regions in China were established using the (equivalent) magnitude M of earthquakes, and the vulnerability index C(V) of urban areas. Meanwhile the (corresponding) maps were set up. The analysis indicates:(1) Over 41.82% urban regions experienced near source earthquakes with equivalent magnitudes equal or above 4. (2) The urban regions of high value of vulnerability (index) are not corresponding to the distribution of metropolitan regions in China. (3) The high W(X) value regions are in North China and Taiwan Island, and the second high W(X) value regions are the coastal areas of Fujian and (Guangdong) provinces, the areas of Yunnan Province and Tianshan Mountain of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous (Region). The 37 cities of W(X)≥3.0 are the key cities for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation.
引文
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[2]张晓梅,王小平.城市地震灾害及防御对策浅析[J].高原地震,2001,13(4):57-60.
[3]楼宝棠.中国古今地震灾情总汇[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.
[4]http://www.quake06.org/lerm.html#[EB/OL].
[5]http://www.cedim.de/workingprogram＿earthquake＿risk.htm#Sub-project%201a[EB/OL].
[6]胡聿贤.地震工程学[M].北京:地震出版社,1988.
[7]陈,刘杰.地震灾害损失预测(综述)[J].自然灾害学报,1995,4(2):20-29.
[8]尹之潜.城市地震危险性分析的基本框架和方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,1999,19(1):70-75.
[9]杨挺.城市局部地震灾害危害性指数及其在上海市的应用[J].国际地震动态,2002,(2):4-7.
[10]http://quake.wr.usgs.gov[EB/OL].
[11]方盛明,张先康,刘保金,等.探测大城市活断层的地球物理方法[J].地震地质,2002,24(4):606-613.
[12]邓起东.城市活动断裂探测和地震危险性评价问题[J].地震地质,2002,24(4):601-605.
[13]时振梁,曹学锋,闫秀杰.中国城市地震研究概述[J].中国地震,2002,18(4):365-370.
[14]尹之潜,李树桢,赵直,等.地震灾害预测与地震灾害等级[J].中国地震,1991,7(1):9-19.
[15]SalazarAR,HaldarA.Structuralresponsesconsideringtheverticalcomponetofearthquakes[J].ComputerandStructures,2000,17:131-145.
[16]EllingwoodRR.Erathquakeriskassessmentofbuildingstructures[J].ReliabilityEngineeringandSystemSafety,2001,74:251-262.
[17]ErdikM,AydinoN.EarthquakevulnerabilityofbuildinginTrukey.[A].RiskandGovernance,ProgramofWorldCongressonRisk[C].Brussels,2003.
[18]YEYaoxian,OKADANorio.RegionalvulnerabilitybasedonChineseandJapaneseearthquakedisastercasestudies[A].RiskandGovernance,ProgramofWorldCongressonRisk[C].Brussels,2003.
[19]王中宇,陈,陈鑫连,等.中国经济系统地震易损性分析[J].自然灾害学报,1995,4(1):26-33.
[20]史培军.灾害研究的理论与实践[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版),自然灾害研究专辑,1991:37-41.
[21]史培军.再论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(4):6-17.
[22]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪———公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.
[23]国家地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录(公元1912年———公元1990年)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1995.
[24]李闽峰,马宗晋.烈度当量———预测地震灾害的一种新途径[J].灾害学,1990,(4):8-13.
[25]陈棋福,陈,陈凌,等.全球地震灾害预测[J].科学通报,1999,44(1):21-25.
[26]陈棋福,陈,陈凌.利用国内生产总值和人口数据进行地震灾害损失预测评估[J].地震学报,1997,19(6):640-649.
[27]ChenLS,ChenY,ChenQ,etal.Assessmentofglobalseismiclossbasedonmacroeconomicindicators[J].NaturalHazards,1998,17:269-283.
[28]HainingR.Spatialdataanalysisinthesocialandenvironmentsciences[M].Cambridge,1990.
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