中国大陆8级地震的空间关联特征及复发周期探讨

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英文篇名：Discussion on Spatial Correlation of Earthquakes with Magnitude 8 in the Continent of China and the Recurrence Interval 中文刊名：灾害学 英文刊名：Journal of Catastrophology 作者：何崇君 英文作者：HE Chong-jun (Lintong Seismic Station ; Earthquake Administration ofShaanxi Province ; Lintong ; Shaanxi 710600 ; China) 中文关键词：8级地震 ; 空间关联 ; 黄金分割 ; 复发周期 ; 中国大陆 英文关键词：magnitude 8 earthquake ; spatial correlation ; golden mean ; recurrence interval ; continent of China 出版日期：2004-09-30 机构：陕西省地震局临潼地震台 陕西临潼710600 年：2004 期：03 出版单位：灾害学

摘要

某些8级以上地震具有在同一经线和同一纬线上成组交替发生的特点。在此认识的基础上应用"黄金分割数"探讨了8级地震的空间关联现象。结果发现8级地震具有空间关联特征,其关联特征可以用"黄金分割数"定量描述。据此建立了"黄金分割预测模型",并对昆仑山口西8 1级地震后的下一次8级地震的发生区域进行了预测。中国大陆及周边的M≥734级地震有25年的复发周期,这种复发周期既有较小范围的转移,也有较大范围的转移。由此预测下次8级地震将发生在2022年前后。
The earthquakes with magnitude 8 or greater characterized by the fact that they occur alternately on a same longitude and latitude. According to this knowledge, golden mean is used to discuss the spatial correlation of earthquake with magnitude 8. It shows that the earthquakes of magnitude 8 are correlated in space and this phenomenon can be depicted quantitatively by use of golden mean. An earthquake prediction model by golden mean is developed in this paper. It is used to predict the location of the next magnitude 8 earthquake following the magnitude 8.1 earthquake in the west of Kunlunshan mountain. The results show that, in China and its surroundings, recurrence interval of earthquake with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 3/4 is 25 years. This interval may change in small or large range. It is predicted that the next magnitude 8 earthquake would take place after 2022.

引文

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