地震灾害应急管理能力建设投资优化研究
详细信息 本馆镜像全文    |  推荐本文 | | 获取馆网全文
摘要
为提高资源约束条件下地震灾害应急管理能力(EDEMA)建设投资决策的科学性和有效性,以应急管理"全过程"理论为基础,确定各个阶段的能力构成要素,基于层次分析法(AHP),计算指标相对权重。依据EDEMA建设规律,基于系统动力学(SD)原理,利用Vensim软件构建EDEMA建设因果关系图和流图,并对假设的5种不同投资分配方案进行仿真分析。结果表明,最优投资分配系数在全面缩减阶段、应急预备阶段、救援反应阶段、恢复重建阶段依次递减,与应急管理"预防为主,避免事后处理问题"的理念相契合;投资优化有助于明显节约投资,提前降低投资压力。
To improve scientificalness and effectiveness of investment decision for EDEMA construction under the condition of resource constraints,firstly,based on the " whole process theory" in emergency management and according to the required ability to defend earthquake disaster,indexes for EDEMA were confirmed. Based on AHP,relative weights of the indexes were calculated. Then,combining EDEMA construction investment rules with principles of SD,based on Vensim software,an EDEMA construction model was formed,including casual chart and flow chart. Also,five hypothetic investment distribution plans were simulated by using of the model. The results show that the optimal investment distribution coefficient values form a decreasing order: the one for the overall reduction stage,the one for emergency readiness stage,the one for rescue and response stage,and the one for recovery and reconstruction stage,which agrees with the idea of highlighting earlier action and avoiding afterwards treatment during emergency management,and that investment optimization is helpful in saving evidently resources and reducing investment pressure in advance.
引文
[1]王晓静,迟菲,吴晓涛,等.地震应急管理中的专业化分析——从救援、技术、物资、媒体、管理的视角[J].科技促进发展,2013,10(3):38-43.WANG Xiao-jing,CHI Fei,WU Xiao-tao,et al.Professionalism analysis of earthquake emergency management-from rescue,technology,material,media,management's points of view[J].Science&Technology for Development,2013,10(3):38-43.
    [2]呼唤.新中国灾害管理思想演变研究[D].武汉:中国地质大学,2013.HU Huan.Research on the changes of disasters management ideas of new China[D].Wuhan:China University of Geosciences,2013.
    [3]吴新燕.城市地震灾害风险分析与应急准备能力评价体系的研究[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所,2006.WU Xin-yan.Analysis of urban earthquake disaster risk and research of evaluation system of emergency readiness capability[D].Beijing:Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration,2006.
    [4]周进军.地震灾害综合应急能力评估研究[D].北京:北京工业大学,2009.ZHOU Jin-jun.Research on earthquake disaster comprehensive emergency response capability assessment[D].Beijing:Beijing University of Technology,2009.
    [5]郭姗姗.地震灾害应急能力综合评价研究[D].长沙:湖南大学,2013.GUO Shan-shan.The research on comprehensive evaluation of earthquake disaster emergency ability[D].Changsha:Hunan University,2013.
    [6]冯若萍.城市地震灾害应急管理能力评价指标体系与方法研究[D].西安:长安大学,2013.FENG Ruo-ping.Study on the evaluation indexes and method of urban earthquake disaster emergency management ability[D].Xi'an:Chang'an University,2013.
    [7]王湛.突发公共事件应急管理过程及能力评价研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2008.WANG Zhan.Public emergency management procedures and emergency operation capability assessment[D].Wuhan:Wuhan University of Technology,2008.
    [8]荆全忠,姜秀慧,杨鉴淞,等.基于层次分析法(AHP)的煤矿安全生产能力指标体系研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2006,16(9):74-79,145.JING Quan-zhong,JIANG Xiu-hui,YANG Jian-song,et al.Study on index system of capability of production safety in coal mine based on AHP[J].China Safety Science Journal,2006,16(9):74-79,145.
    [9]邓雪,李家铭,曾浩健,等.层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(7):93-100.DENG Xue,LI Jia-ming,ZENG Hao-jian,et al.Research on computation methods of AHP weight vector and its applications[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(7):93-100.
    [10]蔡林.系统动力学在可持续发展研究中的应用[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2008:190-220.CAI Lin.The application of system dynamics in the research of sustainable development[M].Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,2008:190-220.
    [11]李旭.社会系统动力学——政策研究的原理、方法和应用[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2009:26-78.LI Xu.Social system dynamics-principles,methods and application of policy study[M].Shanghai:Fudan University Press,2009:26-78.

版权所有:© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心