2008年汶川8.0级地震前川滇地区6级以上地震平静异常
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摘要
2008年5月12日四川汶川8.0级地震前,川滇地区出现了显著的地震平静异常:M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0地震平静时间分别达3.63年、8.29年和12.27年。通过对1900年以来川滇地区M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0地震时间分布特征的统计分析,发现这些平静异常现象在川滇地区近100年来的地震活动性中是非常显著的。在M≥7.0地震平静时间大于5年的条件下,M≥6.0(1.0σ以上)和M≥6.5地震(1.5σ以上)平静异常在统计上具有显著性和重现性,可能是这类7级地震前一个重要或典型的异常现象。
It appeared seismic anomaly quiescence before the Wenchuan earthquake(M=8.0),May 12,2008,in Sichuan-Yunnan region.The quiescence time for the earthquakes with M≥6.0,M≥6.5 and M≥7.0 is about 3.63 years,8.23 years and 12.27 years respectively.By the systematic analysis of the time distribution features for the earthquakes with M≥6.0,M≥6.5 and M≥7.0 from 1900 to 2008 occurred in Sichuan-Yunnan region,the results presents these quiescence anomalies are the very prominent in the past 100 years seismicity in this region.It also presents that the quiescence anomalies for the earthquakes with M≥6.0(above 1.0σ)or M≥6.5(above 1.5σ),have notability and universality when the quiescence time for the earthquake with M≥7.0 is above 5 years.Therefore,it could be an important or typical phenomena before this type earthquakes with M≥7.0 in Sichuan-Yunnan region.
It appeared seismic anomaly quiescence before the Wenchuan earthquake(M=8.0),May 12,2008,in Sichuan-Yunnan region.The quiescence time for the earthquakes with M≥6.0,M≥6.5 and M≥7.0 is about 3.63 years,8.23 years and 12.27 years respectively.By the systematic analysis of the time distribution features for the earthquakes with M≥6.0,M≥6.5 and M≥7.0 from 1900 to 2008 occurred in Sichuan-Yunnan region,the results presents these quiescence anomalies are the very prominent in the past 100 years seismicity in this region.It also presents that the quiescence anomalies for the earthquakes with M≥6.0(above 1.0σ)or M≥6.5(above 1.5σ),have notability and universality when the quiescence time for the earthquake with M≥7.0 is above 5 years.Therefore,it could be an important or typical phenomena before this type earthquakes with M≥7.0 in Sichuan-Yunnan region.
引文
国家地震局震害防御司.1999.中国近代地震目录(公元1912年～1990年)[M].北京:地震出版社.
国家地震局震害防御司.1995.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪～公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社.
韩渭宾.1998.三种地震“平静”的概念及其预报意义综述[J].国际地震动态,(5):9-13.
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学峰.1994.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究(之二)[J].地震学报,16(4):423-432.
刘杰,郭铁栓,杨立明,等.2009.汶川8.0级地震前地震趋势分析意见的回顾[J].地震,29(1):40-52.
刘杰,郭铁栓,杨立明,等.2008.2005～2007年中国大陆6级以上地震超长平静的跟踪预测研究[J].地震研究,31(4):324-329.
石绍先,曹刻,和宏伟,等.2003.川滇地区成组强震活动的基本特征[J].地震研究,26(增刊):55-61.
苏有锦,李忠华,刘祖荫,等.2001a.20世纪云南地区M≥5.0级地震活动的基本特征[J].地震研究,24(1):1-8.
苏有锦,秦嘉政.2001b.川滇地区强地震活动与区域新构造运动的关系[J].中国地震,17(1):24-34.
张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽,等.2008.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因[J].地球物理学报,51(4):1066-1073.
Habermann R E.1988.Precursory seismic quiescence:past,present andfuture[J].Pure and applied Geophysics,126:79-318.
Huang Q,Oncel A O.2002.Sobolev G A.Precursory seismicity changesassociated with theMW=7.41999August17Izmit(Turkey)earth-quake[J].Geophysical Journal International,151:235-242.
Huang Q,Sobolev G A,Nagao T.2001.Characteristics of t he seismic qui-escence and activation patterns before theM=7.2Kobe earthquake[J].Tectonophysics,337:99-116.
Kato N,Ohtake M,Hirasawa T.1997.Possible mechanism of precursoryseismic quiescence:regional stress relaxation due to preseismic slid-ing[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,150(2):249-267.
Katsumata K,Kasahara.1999.Precursory seismic quiescence before the1994Kurile earthquake(MW=8.3)revealed by three independentseismic catalogs[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,155(2-4):443-470.
Kisslinger C.1988.An experiment in earthquake prediction and the7May1986Andreanof islands earthquake[J].Bull SeismSoc Am,78(1):218-229.
Ogata Y.2004.Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection ofcrustal stress changes[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,109(B3):23.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.1994.Seismic quiescence before the Landers(M=7.3)and Big Bear(M=6.5)1992earthquakes[J].Bull Seism SocAm,84:900-916.
Wyss M,Habermann R E.1988.Precursory seismic quiescence[J].Pureand Applied Geophysics,126(2-4):319-332.
Wyss M,Martirosyan A H.1998.Seismic quiescence before theM7,1988,Spitak earthquake,Armenia[J].Geophysical Journal Interna-tional,134(2):329.
Yih-Min Wu,Ling-Yun Chiao.2006.Seismic quiescence before the1999Chi-Chi,Taiwan,MW7.6earthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,96(1):321-327.
国家地震局震害防御司.1995.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪～公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社.
韩渭宾.1998.三种地震“平静”的概念及其预报意义综述[J].国际地震动态,(5):9-13.
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学峰.1994.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究(之二)[J].地震学报,16(4):423-432.
刘杰,郭铁栓,杨立明,等.2009.汶川8.0级地震前地震趋势分析意见的回顾[J].地震,29(1):40-52.
刘杰,郭铁栓,杨立明,等.2008.2005～2007年中国大陆6级以上地震超长平静的跟踪预测研究[J].地震研究,31(4):324-329.
石绍先,曹刻,和宏伟,等.2003.川滇地区成组强震活动的基本特征[J].地震研究,26(增刊):55-61.
苏有锦,李忠华,刘祖荫,等.2001a.20世纪云南地区M≥5.0级地震活动的基本特征[J].地震研究,24(1):1-8.
苏有锦,秦嘉政.2001b.川滇地区强地震活动与区域新构造运动的关系[J].中国地震,17(1):24-34.
张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽,等.2008.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因[J].地球物理学报,51(4):1066-1073.
Habermann R E.1988.Precursory seismic quiescence:past,present andfuture[J].Pure and applied Geophysics,126:79-318.
Huang Q,Oncel A O.2002.Sobolev G A.Precursory seismicity changesassociated with theMW=7.41999August17Izmit(Turkey)earth-quake[J].Geophysical Journal International,151:235-242.
Huang Q,Sobolev G A,Nagao T.2001.Characteristics of t he seismic qui-escence and activation patterns before theM=7.2Kobe earthquake[J].Tectonophysics,337:99-116.
Kato N,Ohtake M,Hirasawa T.1997.Possible mechanism of precursoryseismic quiescence:regional stress relaxation due to preseismic slid-ing[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,150(2):249-267.
Katsumata K,Kasahara.1999.Precursory seismic quiescence before the1994Kurile earthquake(MW=8.3)revealed by three independentseismic catalogs[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,155(2-4):443-470.
Kisslinger C.1988.An experiment in earthquake prediction and the7May1986Andreanof islands earthquake[J].Bull SeismSoc Am,78(1):218-229.
Ogata Y.2004.Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection ofcrustal stress changes[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,109(B3):23.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.1994.Seismic quiescence before the Landers(M=7.3)and Big Bear(M=6.5)1992earthquakes[J].Bull Seism SocAm,84:900-916.
Wyss M,Habermann R E.1988.Precursory seismic quiescence[J].Pureand Applied Geophysics,126(2-4):319-332.
Wyss M,Martirosyan A H.1998.Seismic quiescence before theM7,1988,Spitak earthquake,Armenia[J].Geophysical Journal Interna-tional,134(2):329.
Yih-Min Wu,Ling-Yun Chiao.2006.Seismic quiescence before the1999Chi-Chi,Taiwan,MW7.6earthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,96(1):321-327.
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