地震灾区应急洪水预报方案建立研究
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摘要
提出了一种建立地震灾区应急洪水预报方案的方法,即在划分基本类的基础上,建立每类的应急雨量站和面雨量的回归方程,并提出了时段面雨量计算方法,结合现有的经验预报方案,实现地震灾区洪水预报,用以满足灾后应急洪水预报的需要。该方法不依赖于流域内全部测站的降雨信息,可有效解决灾后流域内雨量站缺测的应急洪水预报问题。实例应用表明,该方法预报结果令人满意。
To avoid the flood secondary disasters caused by the earthquake,the department which has the task of flood forecasting set up emergency flood forecasting scheme to provide scientific basis for earthquake relief in earthquake-prone areas.A method of forecasting emergency flood in earthquake areas is provided in the paper.The logistic equations of each kind of emergency rainfall station and area rainfall are set up by dividing the basic classes in the method.The computation method of acquiring time-area rainfall is also deduced.Combined with the available experience forecasting project,the method could implement flood forecasting to satisfy the earthquake relief in earthquake areas.The method does not depend on the rainfall information in all rainfall stations and could solve the problems of lacking of observation data in disaster areas effectively.The application example shows the forecasting result of the method is satisfactory.
To avoid the flood secondary disasters caused by the earthquake,the department which has the task of flood forecasting set up emergency flood forecasting scheme to provide scientific basis for earthquake relief in earthquake-prone areas.A method of forecasting emergency flood in earthquake areas is provided in the paper.The logistic equations of each kind of emergency rainfall station and area rainfall are set up by dividing the basic classes in the method.The computation method of acquiring time-area rainfall is also deduced.Combined with the available experience forecasting project,the method could implement flood forecasting to satisfy the earthquake relief in earthquake areas.The method does not depend on the rainfall information in all rainfall stations and could solve the problems of lacking of observation data in disaster areas effectively.The application example shows the forecasting result of the method is satisfactory.
引文
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[2]许继军,杨大文,蔡治国,等.基于分布式水文模拟的三峡区间洪水预报(I)模型构建及验证[J].水文,2008,28(1):32-37.
[3]金新芽,邵学强,马志鑫,等.浙江省暴雨定点定面关系分析[J].浙江水利科技,2003(2):7-8.
[4]野晓雷,张志军.北方平原城市雨水系统设计中的几个问题[J].河北科技大学学报,2008,29(2):169-172.
[5]王孝仁,王松桂.实用多元统计分析[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,1990.
[6]陈平雁.Spass统计软件应用教程[M].北京:人民卫生出版社,2008:176-185.
[7]庄一鹤,林三益.水文预报[M].南京:河海大学出版社,1995.
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