冀鲁豫交界区地下流体模糊熵值的变化与地震的关系
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摘要
采用概率化预处理方法 ,把冀鲁豫交界区地下流体多种观测项目的观测值转化为概率值时间序列 ,然后计算其模糊从属函数。在此基础上计算该区地下流体构成的信息源系统的模糊熵值 ,分析了模糊熵值变化与 1983年山东菏泽Ms 5 9地震和 1985年河北任县Ms 5 0地震的关系。结果显示 ,在这两次中强地震前分别有明显的减熵异常过程 ,并且一次比一次明显 ,中强地震都发生在低熵值处 ,震后恢复到高熵值的变化过程。这可能反映了地下流体构成的信息源系统在地震孕育和发生过程中的减熵有序变化。通过研究认为 ,该区模糊熵值减到 0 90 7为发震前兆异常警戒线 ,并且离中强地震发生的时间越近 ,减熵过程越大 ;震级越大 ,减熵过程越明显 ,减熵时间越长。
Based on probabilistic preprocessing, the observation values for the observed items of subsurface fluid in the joint area of Hebei, Shandong and Henan Provinces have been transformed into probability and time sequence, then count fuzzy slave function. The fuzzy entropy value of the information source system formed by subsurface fluid in the area is calculated. The relation between the variation of the fuzzy entropy and Heze Ms 5.9 earthquake (Shandong, 1983) and Renxian Ms 5.0 earthquake (Hebei, 1985) is analyzed. The results show that there are two times obvious entropy decreasing before the two events and the later is more distinct than the former. The two events both occurred at the low entropy moment. The entropy recovered after the shocks. This process reflects maybe the ordinal change of the entropy decreasing in the course of earthquake development and occurrence for a subsurface fluid information system. Study shows that 0.907 is the precursory anomalies alarm line for an earthquake in the area, and the closer to an earthquake, the larger the entropy decreasing; the greater the magnitude of the earthquake, the more obvious of the course of entropy decreasing, the longer time of entropy decreasing.
Based on probabilistic preprocessing, the observation values for the observed items of subsurface fluid in the joint area of Hebei, Shandong and Henan Provinces have been transformed into probability and time sequence, then count fuzzy slave function. The fuzzy entropy value of the information source system formed by subsurface fluid in the area is calculated. The relation between the variation of the fuzzy entropy and Heze Ms 5.9 earthquake (Shandong, 1983) and Renxian Ms 5.0 earthquake (Hebei, 1985) is analyzed. The results show that there are two times obvious entropy decreasing before the two events and the later is more distinct than the former. The two events both occurred at the low entropy moment. The entropy recovered after the shocks. This process reflects maybe the ordinal change of the entropy decreasing in the course of earthquake development and occurrence for a subsurface fluid information system. Study shows that 0.907 is the precursory anomalies alarm line for an earthquake in the area, and the closer to an earthquake, the larger the entropy decreasing; the greater the magnitude of the earthquake, the more obvious of the course of entropy decreasing, the longer time of entropy decreasing.
引文
[1]郭德科.冀鲁豫交界区地下流体合成信息熵值变化与地震的关系[J].华北地震科学,2001,(4):67～71
[2]郭德科.模糊分维理论在地下流体资料分析中的应用[J].东北地震研究,2000,(4):17～20
[3]冯德益,林命周,顾瑾平等.模糊地震学[J].地震出版社,1992
[4]王海涛,杨马陵,曲延军等.前兆群体异常的综合识别[A].见:国家地震局预测预防司:地震短临预报的理论与方法[M ].北京:地震出版社,1997:483～492
[2]郭德科.模糊分维理论在地下流体资料分析中的应用[J].东北地震研究,2000,(4):17～20
[3]冯德益,林命周,顾瑾平等.模糊地震学[J].地震出版社,1992
[4]王海涛,杨马陵,曲延军等.前兆群体异常的综合识别[A].见:国家地震局预测预防司:地震短临预报的理论与方法[M ].北京:地震出版社,1997:483～492
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