关于加卸载响应比理论运用于地震预测的几点思考
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摘要
加卸载响应比理论已在地震预测中得到广泛应用,但也面临挑战。本文对加卸载响应比理论及方法进行了分析,并提出该理论几个可能的研究方面:(1)根据固体潮应力变化值给定每个小地震Benioff应变在加卸载响应比计算中的权重;(2)考虑地震之前应力空间分布,确定加卸载响应比可能升高的区域形状,进而确定加卸载响应比计算中小震资料的选取范围;(3)将实测的小震震源机制与假定小震震源机制都相同时的加卸载响应比计算结果进行比较,研究测定的小震震源机制对加卸载响应比方法的改善情况;(4)研究加卸载响应比方法对不同震源机制类型地震的适用情况。
The theory of Load and Unload Response Ratio (LURR) has applicated in earthquake prediction extensivelly,but it meet challenge also.In this paper,the theory of LURR and its application are analyzed and some aspects for study in near futuer are proposed:(1) Weight of Benioff strain of every small earthquake would be added in LURR calculation according to Coulomb failure stress generated by earth tide; (2) The region shape in where small earthquakes are selected would be determined by the range of LURR would-be-high according to stress distribution before impending large earthquake; (3) By comparing the results of LURR from the assumed same mechanism of small earthquakes and that from measured mechanism of small earthquakes, study the improvement of LURR from using measured data; (4) The applicability of LURR to different seismic fault types of large earthquake would be studied.
The theory of Load and Unload Response Ratio (LURR) has applicated in earthquake prediction extensivelly,but it meet challenge also.In this paper,the theory of LURR and its application are analyzed and some aspects for study in near futuer are proposed:(1) Weight of Benioff strain of every small earthquake would be added in LURR calculation according to Coulomb failure stress generated by earth tide; (2) The region shape in where small earthquakes are selected would be determined by the range of LURR would-be-high according to stress distribution before impending large earthquake; (3) By comparing the results of LURR from the assumed same mechanism of small earthquakes and that from measured mechanism of small earthquakes, study the improvement of LURR from using measured data; (4) The applicability of LURR to different seismic fault types of large earthquake would be studied.
引文
[1] YinX,ChenX,SongZ,etal..Anewapproachtoearthquakeprediction:Theload/unloadresponseratio(LURR)theory[J].PureAppl.Geophys.,1995,145(3/4):703-715.
[2] YinX,WangY,PengK,etal.,Developmentofanewapproachtoearthquakeprediction:Load/unloadresponseratio(LURR)theory[J].PureAppl.Geophys.,2000,157:2365-2383.
[3] 尹祥础,尹灿.非线性系统失稳的前兆与地震预报———响应比理论及其应用[J].中国科学(B辑),1991,5:512-518.
[4] 尹祥础.地震预报新途径探索[J].中国地震,1987,3(1):1-7.
[5] HarrisRA.Introductiontospecialsection:Stresstriggers,stressshadows,andimplicationsforseismichazad[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1987,103:24347-24358.
[6] 施行觉,许和明,万永中,等.模拟引潮力作用下岩石破裂特征———加卸载响应比理论的实验研究之一[J].地球物理学报,1994,37(5):633-638.
[7] 王裕仓,尹祥础,王海涛.地震预测的加卸载响应比岩石试验模拟[J].中国地震,1998.14(2):126-130.
[8] WangYC,YinXC,WangHT,etal..Numericalsimulationofrockfailureandearthquakeprocessonmesoscopicscale[J].PureAppl.Geophys.,2000,157:1905-1928.
[9] 陈棋福,尹祥础,马丽.加卸载响应比的自然概率分布[J].中国地震,1996,12(3):269-274.
[10] 庄建仓,尹祥础 加卸载响应比在Poisson模型下的随机分布[J].中国地震,1999,15(2):128-138.
[11] 宋治平,尹祥础,陈学忠.加卸载响应比的时空演化特征及其对地震三要素的预测意义[J].地震学报,1996,18(2):179-186.
[12] 王裕仓,宋治平,细野耕司,等.日本兵库存县南部地震和关东地区强震前正负地震的演变特征及其对地震预测的意义[J].地震学报,1998,20(1):29-35.
[13] 许昭永,杨润海,王彬,等.负坡段加卸载响应比的物理意义及预测效能[J].地震学报,2002,24(1):42-49.
[14] BradyBT.TheoryofearthquakeI[J].PureAppl.Geophys.,1975,113:149-168.
[15] 华祥文.唐山地震前后北京、天津周围地区应力的变化过程[J].地震学报,1980,2(2):234-242.
[16] 曹新玲,李自强,刘建中.唐山地震前后的应力变化[J].地震学报,1984,6(4):405-413.
[17] XuZH,WangSY.Apossiblechangeinstressfieldorientationduetothe1976Tanghsanearthquake[J].PureAppl.Geophys.,1986,124:941-955.
[18] 赵根模,褚宝珑,郭瑞芝.宁河6.9级强震前小震主应力轴取向的变化[J].地震学报,1984,6(4):414-424.
[19] ReasenbergPA.Foreshockoccurrencebeforelargeearthquakes[J].Geophys.Res.,1999,104:4755-4768.
[20] 万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.地震静态应力触发模型的全球检验[J].地震学报,2002,24(3):302-316.
[21] SuroukaH,OhtakeM,SatoH.Statisticaltestofthetidaltriggeringofearthquakes:contributionoftheoceantideloadingeffect[J].Geophys.J.Int.,1995,122:183-194.
[22] 吴忠良.鉴别地震活动周期性和随机性的广义Rydelek-Sacks检验[J].地震学报,1999,21(5):487-494.
[23] KingGCP,SteinRS,LinJ.Staticstresschangesandthetriggeringofearthquakes[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1994,84:935-953.
[24] FreedAM,LinJ.Time-dependentchangesinfailurestressfollowingthrustearthquakes[J].J.Geophys.Res.1998,103:24393-24409.
[25] BowmannDD,KingGCP.Acceleratingseismicityandstressstressaccumulationbeforelargeeartqhauke[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2001,28:4039-4042.
[26] Okada,Y.Internaldeformationduetoshearandtensilefaultsinahalf-space[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1992,82:1018-1040.
[27] FreedAM,LinJ.Delayedtriggeringofthe1999HectorMineearthquakebyviscoelasticstresstransfer[J].Nature,2001,411:180-183.
[28] WellsDL,CoppersmithKJ.Newempiricalrelationshipsamongmagnitude,ruptureareaandsurfacedisplacement[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1994,84:974-1002.
[29] ZivA,RubinAM.Staticstresstransferandearthquaketriggering:Nolowerthresholdinsight?[J].J.Geophys.Res.,2000,105:13631-13642.
[2] YinX,WangY,PengK,etal.,Developmentofanewapproachtoearthquakeprediction:Load/unloadresponseratio(LURR)theory[J].PureAppl.Geophys.,2000,157:2365-2383.
[3] 尹祥础,尹灿.非线性系统失稳的前兆与地震预报———响应比理论及其应用[J].中国科学(B辑),1991,5:512-518.
[4] 尹祥础.地震预报新途径探索[J].中国地震,1987,3(1):1-7.
[5] HarrisRA.Introductiontospecialsection:Stresstriggers,stressshadows,andimplicationsforseismichazad[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1987,103:24347-24358.
[6] 施行觉,许和明,万永中,等.模拟引潮力作用下岩石破裂特征———加卸载响应比理论的实验研究之一[J].地球物理学报,1994,37(5):633-638.
[7] 王裕仓,尹祥础,王海涛.地震预测的加卸载响应比岩石试验模拟[J].中国地震,1998.14(2):126-130.
[8] WangYC,YinXC,WangHT,etal..Numericalsimulationofrockfailureandearthquakeprocessonmesoscopicscale[J].PureAppl.Geophys.,2000,157:1905-1928.
[9] 陈棋福,尹祥础,马丽.加卸载响应比的自然概率分布[J].中国地震,1996,12(3):269-274.
[10] 庄建仓,尹祥础 加卸载响应比在Poisson模型下的随机分布[J].中国地震,1999,15(2):128-138.
[11] 宋治平,尹祥础,陈学忠.加卸载响应比的时空演化特征及其对地震三要素的预测意义[J].地震学报,1996,18(2):179-186.
[12] 王裕仓,宋治平,细野耕司,等.日本兵库存县南部地震和关东地区强震前正负地震的演变特征及其对地震预测的意义[J].地震学报,1998,20(1):29-35.
[13] 许昭永,杨润海,王彬,等.负坡段加卸载响应比的物理意义及预测效能[J].地震学报,2002,24(1):42-49.
[14] BradyBT.TheoryofearthquakeI[J].PureAppl.Geophys.,1975,113:149-168.
[15] 华祥文.唐山地震前后北京、天津周围地区应力的变化过程[J].地震学报,1980,2(2):234-242.
[16] 曹新玲,李自强,刘建中.唐山地震前后的应力变化[J].地震学报,1984,6(4):405-413.
[17] XuZH,WangSY.Apossiblechangeinstressfieldorientationduetothe1976Tanghsanearthquake[J].PureAppl.Geophys.,1986,124:941-955.
[18] 赵根模,褚宝珑,郭瑞芝.宁河6.9级强震前小震主应力轴取向的变化[J].地震学报,1984,6(4):414-424.
[19] ReasenbergPA.Foreshockoccurrencebeforelargeearthquakes[J].Geophys.Res.,1999,104:4755-4768.
[20] 万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.地震静态应力触发模型的全球检验[J].地震学报,2002,24(3):302-316.
[21] SuroukaH,OhtakeM,SatoH.Statisticaltestofthetidaltriggeringofearthquakes:contributionoftheoceantideloadingeffect[J].Geophys.J.Int.,1995,122:183-194.
[22] 吴忠良.鉴别地震活动周期性和随机性的广义Rydelek-Sacks检验[J].地震学报,1999,21(5):487-494.
[23] KingGCP,SteinRS,LinJ.Staticstresschangesandthetriggeringofearthquakes[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1994,84:935-953.
[24] FreedAM,LinJ.Time-dependentchangesinfailurestressfollowingthrustearthquakes[J].J.Geophys.Res.1998,103:24393-24409.
[25] BowmannDD,KingGCP.Acceleratingseismicityandstressstressaccumulationbeforelargeeartqhauke[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2001,28:4039-4042.
[26] Okada,Y.Internaldeformationduetoshearandtensilefaultsinahalf-space[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1992,82:1018-1040.
[27] FreedAM,LinJ.Delayedtriggeringofthe1999HectorMineearthquakebyviscoelasticstresstransfer[J].Nature,2001,411:180-183.
[28] WellsDL,CoppersmithKJ.Newempiricalrelationshipsamongmagnitude,ruptureareaandsurfacedisplacement[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1994,84:974-1002.
[29] ZivA,RubinAM.Staticstresstransferandearthquaketriggering:Nolowerthresholdinsight?[J].J.Geophys.Res.,2000,105:13631-13642.
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