基于AMOS的地震人员伤亡影响因素分析
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摘要
选用震级、震中烈度、极震区面积、Ⅴ度区以上面积、地震预报、抗震设防烈度、设计基本地震加速度值、房屋倒塌面积、房屋破坏面积(中等破坏及以上)、男女性别比、受灾区人口密度、地震时间、震源深度13个因子作为地震人员伤亡的影响因素,在定性分析的基础上,运用SPSS、AMOS软件,选用1949年至2010年间发生在我国的362次成灾地震进行数据分析,构建地震人员伤亡影响因素结构方程模型,综合分析各个影响因素对人员伤亡的影响程度。模型的GFI为0.911,RMSEA为0.081,PGFI为0.607,PNFI为0.596,NC为3.077,表明模型拟合效果良好,适配合理,具有简约适配度。分析表明:房屋倒塌面积、房屋破坏面积(中等破坏及以上)、震中烈度、震级、五度区以上面积是影响地震人员伤亡的五项最主要影响因素,减少房屋的倒塌和破坏情况、进行地震预报是减少地震人员伤亡的主要措施,并按重要性分别提出关键措施、一般措施和其他措施,为区域防灾减灾工作提供建议。
This paper takes the thirteen factors,namely magnitude,epicentral intensity,meizoseismic area,the area with seismic intensity higher than V,earthquake prediction,seismic fortification intensity,design basic acceleration of ground motion,the area where houses are collapsed,the area where houses are destroyed(medium damage and above),the ratio of male to female,population density of the affected area,seismic time,focal depth,as the influential factors to the earthquake casualties.On the basis of qualitative analysis,we adopt SPSS and AMOS software to analyze the relationship between the factors and earthquake casualties according to the data of three hundred and sixty-two earthquake disasters happened in our country from 1949 to 2010 and build the structural equation model of earthquake casualties influencing factors and comprehensively analyse each factor's influential coefficients of earthquake casualties.The goodness-of-fit index of the model is 0.911,root mean square error of approximation is 0.081,parsimony goodness-of-fit index is 0.607,parsimony-adjusted NFI is 0.596,normed chi-square is 3.077, all these show that the model is fitting well with the simple goodness of fit.Analysis shows that the area where houses are collapsed,the area where houses are destroyed(medium damage and above),epicentral intensity,magnitude,the area with seismic intensity higher than V are the five important factors.Reducing the houses collapse and destruction,making earthquake prediction are the main measures to reduce earthquake casualties.According to the importance of the factors,we put forward key,general and other measures,provide recommendations for the work of the regional disaster prevention and mitigation.
This paper takes the thirteen factors,namely magnitude,epicentral intensity,meizoseismic area,the area with seismic intensity higher than V,earthquake prediction,seismic fortification intensity,design basic acceleration of ground motion,the area where houses are collapsed,the area where houses are destroyed(medium damage and above),the ratio of male to female,population density of the affected area,seismic time,focal depth,as the influential factors to the earthquake casualties.On the basis of qualitative analysis,we adopt SPSS and AMOS software to analyze the relationship between the factors and earthquake casualties according to the data of three hundred and sixty-two earthquake disasters happened in our country from 1949 to 2010 and build the structural equation model of earthquake casualties influencing factors and comprehensively analyse each factor's influential coefficients of earthquake casualties.The goodness-of-fit index of the model is 0.911,root mean square error of approximation is 0.081,parsimony goodness-of-fit index is 0.607,parsimony-adjusted NFI is 0.596,normed chi-square is 3.077, all these show that the model is fitting well with the simple goodness of fit.Analysis shows that the area where houses are collapsed,the area where houses are destroyed(medium damage and above),epicentral intensity,magnitude,the area with seismic intensity higher than V are the five important factors.Reducing the houses collapse and destruction,making earthquake prediction are the main measures to reduce earthquake casualties.According to the importance of the factors,we put forward key,general and other measures,provide recommendations for the work of the regional disaster prevention and mitigation.
引文
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[3]黄兴伟.如何看待我国地震预报研究在防震减灾中的作用[J].国际地震动态,2009,6:24-31.HUANG Xingwei.How to treat with earthquake prediction in china earthquake disaster mitigation[J].Recent Development in World Seismology,2009,6:24-31.(in Chinese)
[4]周真恒,向才英.关于地震预报的思考[J].大自然探索,1999,18(2):39-43.ZHOU Zhenheng XIANG Caiying.Ponderation on the earthquake prediciton[J].Exploration of Nature,1999,18(2):39-43.(in Chinese)
[5]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.GB50011-2010建筑抗震设计规范[S].北京:建筑工业出版社2010.Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People’s Republic of China.GB50011-2010 Code for Seismic Design of Building[S].Beijing:China Building Industry Press,2010.(in Chinese)
[6]马玉宏,谢礼立.关于地震人员伤亡因素的探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(3):84-90.MA Yuhong,XIE Lili.A study on factors influencing earthquake casualties[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2000,9(3):84-90.(in Chinese)
[7]张肇诚.中国震例[M].北京:地震出版社,2000.ZHANG Zhaocheng.Chinese earthquake case[M].Beijing:Earthquake Publishing House,2000.(in Chinese)
[8]陈棋福.中国震例[M].北京:地震出版社,2002.CHEN Qifu.Chinese earthquake case[M].Beijing:Earthquake Publishing House,2002.(in Chinese)
[9]国家地震局,国家统计局.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1990～1995)[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.State Seismological Bureau,the National Bureau of Statistics.Compilation of earthquake damage assessment happened in China Mainland(1996～2000)[M].Beijing:Earthquake Publishing House,1996.(in Chinese)
[10]中国地震局监测预报司.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1996～2000)[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.Monitoring and Forecasting Division of China Seismological Bureau.Compilation of earthquake damage assessment happened in China Mainland(1996～2000)[M].Beijing:Earthquake Publishing House,2001.(in Chinese)
[11]李顺会,白新荣.结构方程模型概述[J].沿海企业与科技,2009(12):40-42.LI Shunhui,BAI Xinrong.Overview of structural equation model[J].Coastal Enterprises and Science and Technology,2009,(12):40-42.(inChinese)
[12]赖国毅,陈超编.SPSS17.0中文版常用功能与应用实例精讲[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2010.LAI Guoyi,CHEN Chaobian.The commonly used functions and application examples succinctly Chinese version of SPSS17.0[M].Beijing:Elec-tronic Industry Press,2010.(in Chinese)
[13]荣泰生.AMOS与研究方法[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社,2009:92-139.RONG Taisheng.The AMOS and research methods[M].Chongqing:Chongqing University Press,2009:92-139.(in Chinese)
[14]吴明隆.结构方程模型:AMOS的操作与应用,[M].2版.重庆:重庆大学出版社,2010:52-53.WU Minglong.Structural equation modeling:the AMOS operating with application(the second version)[M].2nd ed.Chongqing:Chongqing U-niversity Press,2010:52-53.(in Chinese)
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