危险率函数在地表破裂型地震危险性评估中的应用——以宁夏灵武断裂为例
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摘要
在对中国北部板内地区的古地震资料拟合、给出时间相依的统计模型基础上 ,利用近期获取的灵武断裂有关资料和危险率函数 ,对灵武断裂未来一定时段的发震潜势和当前地震危险性特征进行了分析 ,认为该断裂已进入发震时段 ,在未来 10～ 10 0年内有发生 7 0～ 7 5级左右地震的潜势。
Based on the fitting on paleo-earthquake data of inner plate region in North Ch ina and giving statistical model which is time interdependent, the potentially d amaging earthquake occurrence in a definite future period and dangerous characte ristics of the present shocks along Lingwu faults have been analyzed by using da ta c oncerned and dangerous probability function of Lingwu faults. We have inferred t hat the faults are coming into a period that earthquakes will probably occur and there will have a potential danger that a strong earthquake with M 7.0～7 5 will occur in 10～100 years.
Based on the fitting on paleo-earthquake data of inner plate region in North Ch ina and giving statistical model which is time interdependent, the potentially d amaging earthquake occurrence in a definite future period and dangerous characte ristics of the present shocks along Lingwu faults have been analyzed by using da ta c oncerned and dangerous probability function of Lingwu faults. We have inferred t hat the faults are coming into a period that earthquakes will probably occur and there will have a potential danger that a strong earthquake with M 7.0～7 5 will occur in 10～100 years.
引文
② 柴炽章,廖玉华,张文孝,许文俊.2000,灵武断裂晚第四纪活动习性及其地震危险性研究.(内部报告).
柴炽章,廖玉华,张文孝,许文俊,申旭辉,田勤俭,灵武断裂晚第四纪古地震及其破裂特征,地震地质,23(1):15～23。
甘卫军、刘百、黄雅虹,1999,板内大震原地准周期复发间隔的概率分布,西北地震学报,21(1):7～16。
李起彤,1991,活断层及其工程评价,北京:地震出版社。
茆诗松、王铃铃,1984,可靠性统计,上海:华东师范大学出版社。
廖玉华、柴炽章、张文孝、许文俊,2000,灵武断裂晚第四纪活动特征及位移速率,中国地震,16(2):158～165。
廖玉华,1988,贺兰山东麓断裂带,鄂尔多斯活动断裂系,258～269,北京:地震出版社闻学泽,1995,活动断裂的地震潜势的定量评估,北京:地震出版社。
张培震、毛凤英,1996,活动断裂定量研究与中长期强震危险性概率评价,活断层研究(5):12～31北京:地震出版社。
B .L .Amstadter,1978,可靠性数学,北京:科学出版社。
S .P .NishenkoandR .Buland.1987.AGenericRecurrenceIntervalDistributionforEarthquakeForecasting.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am..77(4):1382～1399.
柴炽章,廖玉华,张文孝,许文俊,申旭辉,田勤俭,灵武断裂晚第四纪古地震及其破裂特征,地震地质,23(1):15～23。
甘卫军、刘百、黄雅虹,1999,板内大震原地准周期复发间隔的概率分布,西北地震学报,21(1):7～16。
李起彤,1991,活断层及其工程评价,北京:地震出版社。
茆诗松、王铃铃,1984,可靠性统计,上海:华东师范大学出版社。
廖玉华、柴炽章、张文孝、许文俊,2000,灵武断裂晚第四纪活动特征及位移速率,中国地震,16(2):158～165。
廖玉华,1988,贺兰山东麓断裂带,鄂尔多斯活动断裂系,258～269,北京:地震出版社闻学泽,1995,活动断裂的地震潜势的定量评估,北京:地震出版社。
张培震、毛凤英,1996,活动断裂定量研究与中长期强震危险性概率评价,活断层研究(5):12～31北京:地震出版社。
B .L .Amstadter,1978,可靠性数学,北京:科学出版社。
S .P .NishenkoandR .Buland.1987.AGenericRecurrenceIntervalDistributionforEarthquakeForecasting.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am..77(4):1382～1399.
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