甘肃岷县漳县M_S6.6地震前“陆态网络”基准站东西分量时序曲线异常特征研究
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摘要
收集了甘肃岷县漳县MS6.6地震前震中附近"陆态网络"基准站GPS数据,并应用PODAP软件进行解算。结果发现震中附近大多数基准站位移三分量时间序列曲线出现突变性异常,异常分量主要为东西分量;异常出现时间集中在震前4周左右;异常幅度为10mm左右。
The China Earthquake Network Center recorded an MS 6.6 earthquake at 7:45CST on July 22,2013,at the boundary of Minxian and Zhangxian in Gansu province.The earthquake was located in the western region of the Qinling Mountains in southern Gansu along the north branch of the Lintan-Dangchang fault.Thirteen counties were affected in the VI degree zone and above. Immediately following this earthquake,the data from 10Global Navigation Satellite Systems(GNSS)stations of the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China recorded from July 2, 2012,through July 4,2013,were analyzed to determine that nine earthquakes of magnitude≥ MS 6.0occurred during this period in China's mainland and adjacent areas.Analysis revealed that the horizontal component of the displacement time series curves differed prior to and following these earthquakes.Two of the most recent earthquakes showed obvious,significant changes indicating that north-south component is a weaker earthquake indicator than the east-west component. Since June 1,nearly all reference stations recorded obvious changes.The variable quantities were more than 10mm and significantly exceeded this value in two days.This large variation was particularly notable after June 23,approximately one month prior to the earthquake.Several reference stations showed significant changes in eastern displacement.The Jingning and Lanzhou stations showed changes at the same time on June 23to June 24with amplitudes of 18.1mm and 20.9mm,respectively.The Dingxi station showed a significant change on June 27 with amplitude of 22.7mm. In comparison,changes at Dingxi,Maqu,and Qingshui stations were not significant changes between June 29and July 5.However,stations distributed north-south frequently showed changes greater than 10mm changes,and those located farther from the earthquake's focus generally occurred earlier.The displacement time series did not show consistency between in east-west and north-south distribution. Not reference station registered abnormal changes in horizontal displacement before the earthquake,and the changes generally were not synchronized.Some deformation occurred on or following the earthquake that differed among stations.However,all of these precursor characteristics are considered meaningful. The displacement component alone is insufficient for determining precursor anomalies;rather,a combination of various observation methods and a variety of earthquake monitoring data are necessary for identifying anomalies,which should include integrated information various different angles.Although changes were detected in the results,such anomalies weakly suggest the seismogenic moment of an upcoming earthquake and do not clearly to confirm earthquake location. To address this challenge,further research and in-depth analysis are required for earthquake prediction.
The China Earthquake Network Center recorded an MS 6.6 earthquake at 7:45CST on July 22,2013,at the boundary of Minxian and Zhangxian in Gansu province.The earthquake was located in the western region of the Qinling Mountains in southern Gansu along the north branch of the Lintan-Dangchang fault.Thirteen counties were affected in the VI degree zone and above. Immediately following this earthquake,the data from 10Global Navigation Satellite Systems(GNSS)stations of the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China recorded from July 2, 2012,through July 4,2013,were analyzed to determine that nine earthquakes of magnitude≥ MS 6.0occurred during this period in China's mainland and adjacent areas.Analysis revealed that the horizontal component of the displacement time series curves differed prior to and following these earthquakes.Two of the most recent earthquakes showed obvious,significant changes indicating that north-south component is a weaker earthquake indicator than the east-west component. Since June 1,nearly all reference stations recorded obvious changes.The variable quantities were more than 10mm and significantly exceeded this value in two days.This large variation was particularly notable after June 23,approximately one month prior to the earthquake.Several reference stations showed significant changes in eastern displacement.The Jingning and Lanzhou stations showed changes at the same time on June 23to June 24with amplitudes of 18.1mm and 20.9mm,respectively.The Dingxi station showed a significant change on June 27 with amplitude of 22.7mm. In comparison,changes at Dingxi,Maqu,and Qingshui stations were not significant changes between June 29and July 5.However,stations distributed north-south frequently showed changes greater than 10mm changes,and those located farther from the earthquake's focus generally occurred earlier.The displacement time series did not show consistency between in east-west and north-south distribution. Not reference station registered abnormal changes in horizontal displacement before the earthquake,and the changes generally were not synchronized.Some deformation occurred on or following the earthquake that differed among stations.However,all of these precursor characteristics are considered meaningful. The displacement component alone is insufficient for determining precursor anomalies;rather,a combination of various observation methods and a variety of earthquake monitoring data are necessary for identifying anomalies,which should include integrated information various different angles.Although changes were detected in the results,such anomalies weakly suggest the seismogenic moment of an upcoming earthquake and do not clearly to confirm earthquake location. To address this challenge,further research and in-depth analysis are required for earthquake prediction.
引文
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[6]洪敏,邵德盛,李春光,等.云南GNSS基准站连续观测资料应用研究[J].地震研究,2012,35(4):535-539.HONG Min,SHAO De-sheng,LI Chun-guang,et al.Research on the Application of Continuous Observations Data Recorded by GNSS Reference Station in Yunnan[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2012,35(4):535-539.(in Chinese)
[7]新华社.中国地震局正式发布甘肃漳县岷县6.6级地震烈度图[BO/BL].中央政府门户网站:2013,http://www.gov.cn/jrzg/2013-07/24/content_2454515.htm Xinhua News Agency.China Earthquake Administration officially released intensity map of Zhangxian-Minxian Ms6.6earthquake in Gansu[BO/BL].Government Portal,2013,http://www.gov.cn/jrzg/2013-07/24/content_2454515.htm(in Chinese)
[2]朱治国,李桂荣.应用GPS连续观测和流动重力资料分析新疆洛浦MS6 .0级地震的前兆特征[J].内陆地震,2013,27(2):19 -28.ZHU Zhi-guo,LI Gui-rong.Analysis of Precursory Characteristics of Luopu MS6 .0Earthquake in Xinjiang with GPS Continuous Observation and Gravity Flow Data[J].Inland Earthquake,2013,27(20):19-28.(in Chinese)
[3]王晓强,宋和平,程瑞忠,等.基于“中国大陆构造环境监测网络”的天山及邻近地区地壳运动与地震活动的初步研究[J].内陆地震,2012,26(2):97-107.WANG Xiao-qiang,SONG He-ping,CHENG Rui-zhong,et al.A Preliminary Study on Crustal Movement of Tianshan and Sseismic Activity Based on Crustal Movement Observation Network of China[J].Inland Earthquake,2012,26(2):97-107 .(in Chinese)
[4]顾国华.印尼8.7级大震前后GPS观测站的地壳水平与垂直位移时间序列结果[J].地震,2006,26(2):19-28.GUO Guo-hua.Results of Time Series of Horizontal and Vertical Displacements at GPS Observation Stations before and after the Sumatra Earthquake with 8.7in Indonesia[J].Earthquake,2006,26(2):19-28.(in Chinese)
[5]施闯,赵齐乐,楼益栋,等.卫星导航系统综合分析处理软件[J].航天器工程,2009,18(4):64-70.SHI Chuang,ZHAO Qi-le,LOU Yi-dong,et al.PANDA:Comprehensive Processing Software for Satellite Navigation Systems and Its Research Progress[J].Spacecraft Engineering,2009,18(4):64-70.(in Chinese)
[6]洪敏,邵德盛,李春光,等.云南GNSS基准站连续观测资料应用研究[J].地震研究,2012,35(4):535-539.HONG Min,SHAO De-sheng,LI Chun-guang,et al.Research on the Application of Continuous Observations Data Recorded by GNSS Reference Station in Yunnan[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2012,35(4):535-539.(in Chinese)
[7]新华社.中国地震局正式发布甘肃漳县岷县6.6级地震烈度图[BO/BL].中央政府门户网站:2013,http://www.gov.cn/jrzg/2013-07/24/content_2454515.htm Xinhua News Agency.China Earthquake Administration officially released intensity map of Zhangxian-Minxian Ms6.6earthquake in Gansu[BO/BL].Government Portal,2013,http://www.gov.cn/jrzg/2013-07/24/content_2454515.htm(in Chinese)
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