使用NCEP数据分析新疆于田地震前异常增温
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摘要
美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)全球再分析资料为监测地震异常提供了新的数据源。分析了2008年3月21日新疆7.3级地震前一个月的NCEP数据,发现2月18日06时(UTCS世界标准时间)在震中附近的断层带上出现温度异常,随后异常持续并向震中位置靠近。20日18时,异常区域完全覆盖震中位置,增温幅度达到7 K。21日12时异常结束。分析表明:温度异常区域与断层分布具有一致性,增温中心对应未来震中位置,增温幅度和发震震级可能存在对应关系,这对预测地震具有重要意义。
The reanalysis data of NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) can be used as a new data source for monitoring anomaly preceding earthquake.The data of NCEP for one month before Xinjiang earthquake occurrence at 21 march 2008 was analyzed.It is found that the thermal anomaly occurred near the epicentral regions at 6 o'clock 18th February(UTCS),then it continued and moved to the epicenter.At 18 o'clock 20th,the variation of temperature had reached 7 K and the abnormal area had covered the epicenter entirely,at last the anomaly ended at 12 o'clock 21th.It can be known that the thermal anomaly area keeps consistency with the fault distributing.The abnormal center will correspond with the future epicentral location.This maybe has some relation between the thermal anomaly amplitude and the earthquake magnitude.The obtained conclusion will be have some important sense for the earthquake forecast.
The reanalysis data of NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) can be used as a new data source for monitoring anomaly preceding earthquake.The data of NCEP for one month before Xinjiang earthquake occurrence at 21 march 2008 was analyzed.It is found that the thermal anomaly occurred near the epicentral regions at 6 o'clock 18th February(UTCS),then it continued and moved to the epicenter.At 18 o'clock 20th,the variation of temperature had reached 7 K and the abnormal area had covered the epicenter entirely,at last the anomaly ended at 12 o'clock 21th.It can be known that the thermal anomaly area keeps consistency with the fault distributing.The abnormal center will correspond with the future epicentral location.This maybe has some relation between the thermal anomaly amplitude and the earthquake magnitude.The obtained conclusion will be have some important sense for the earthquake forecast.
引文
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[3]Saraf A K,Choudhury S.Satellite detects surfacethermal anomalies associated with the Algerian earth-quakes of May 2003[J].International Journal of Re-mote Sensing,2005,26:2705-2713.
[4]Saraf A K,Choudhury S.NOAA-AVHRR detectsthermal anomaly associated with the 26 January 2001B-huj earthquake,Gujrat,India[J].InternationalJournal of Remote Sensing,2005,26:1065-1073.
[5]Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Met-erol Soc,1996,77:437-471.
[6]ROBERT K.The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis:monthly means CD-ROM and documentation[J].Bul-letin of the American Meteorological Society,2001,82(2):247-266.
[7]中国地震台网.新疆于田县发生7.3级地震[EB/OL].http://www.csi.ac.cn/manage/fastReport.jsp?id=668,2008-03-31.The China Earthquake Networks.A 7.3 magnitudequake hit Yutian County Xinjiang[EB/OL].http://www.csi.ac.cn/manage/fastReport.jsp?id=668,2008-03-31.
[8]马未宇,徐秀登,徐保华,等.九江地震NCEP异常增温和天体引潮力附加构造应力变化初探[J].科学技术与工程,2006,6(13):1761-1764.MA Wei-yu,XU Xiu-deng,XU Bao-hua,et al.Usingthe astro-tidal-triggering and the NCEP temperatureincrease abnormal information to analyze the earth-quake of Jiujiang[J].Science Technology and Engi-neering,2006,6(13):1761-1764.
[9]徐秀登.地震前红外异常的基本特征与成因机理[J].西北地震学报,2001,23(3):310-312.XU Xiu-deng.The basic characters and formationmechanism of satellite of infrared anomalies beforestrong earthquakes[J].Northwestern SeismologicalJournal,2001,23(3):310-312.
[10]强祖基,徐秀登,赁常恭.卫星热红外异常——临震前兆[J].科学通报,1990,35(17):1324-1327.QIANG Zu-ji,XU Xiu-deng,LIN Chang-gong.Sa-tellite thermal infra-red anormaly—precursor of im-pending earthquake[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,1990,35(17):1324-1327.
[11]强祖基,赁常恭,李玲芝,等.卫星热红外图像亮温异常——短临震兆[J].中国科学(D辑),1998,28(6):564-573.QIANG Zu-ji,LIN Chang-gong,LI Ling-zhi,et al.Satellite thermal infrared brightness temperatureanomal—short term and impending earthquake pre-cursors[J].Science in China(Series D),1998,28(6):564-573.
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