公众对地震的风险感知研究
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摘要
为了探索影响公众对地震风险感知的关键因素,并分析该因素随时间变化的趋势,运用公众问卷调研法及多元统计法调查公众对地震的风险感知,并进行风险支付意愿的回归分析与时间维度下风险感知的差异性对比。研究表明,公众对地震的了解程度和感知到的威胁程度因时间发生显著变化,并影响公众对风险的感知态度。建议政府通过与公众的有效沟通以及加强立法,纠正公众的风险感知偏差,并将公众的风险感知纳入风险分析和政策决策中。
In this paper we characterize the perception of public in the north part of Jiangsu Province, China, towards one kind of natural disaster—earthquake based on the psychometric paradigm method. An organized questionnaire which contains the elements from this approach was administered to 300 respondents of Sihong, Xuyi and Hongze County in May 2008, shortly after the Wenchuan Earthquake and a total of 156 questionnaires were returned. Then in a second survey of July 2008, 500 respondents from the same research area were randomly chosen, with 318 questionnaires were collected. This research was designed to examine the attitudes and perceptions of people who did not directly experience the Wenchuan Earthquake. We have interested in how the attitudes and perceptions differ depending on gender, age, education and residential type as well as socioeconomic status, characteristics of seismic hazard such as social effect, benefit, controllability etc. The data collected was used to calibrate a multiple liner regression in which the demographic and risk characteristics were set as independent variables. The results indicated 28.2% of variance in the respondents willingness to accept (WTA) risk of earthquake. The results has also revealed that four variables—knowledge of risk, rarity of risk, fear of risk and trust in government have influenced the public s WTA on earthquake. At the same time, F-test was used to examine the equality of the four variables from the two surveys and the statistical processing has indicated a significant difference in knowledge of risk and fear of risk, which implied that these factors would change with time. The findings are helpful for the government to comprehend and predict the behaviors of people according to their demographic characteristics and preferences for seismic. The results revealed that the government should make the information of earthquake more available for individuals so that they could understand the direct and indirect severity of earthquake. Furthermore , a well designed communication of risks with public and effective mitigation policies are also necessary to improve public's rational risk judgment towards earthquake
In this paper we characterize the perception of public in the north part of Jiangsu Province, China, towards one kind of natural disaster—earthquake based on the psychometric paradigm method. An organized questionnaire which contains the elements from this approach was administered to 300 respondents of Sihong, Xuyi and Hongze County in May 2008, shortly after the Wenchuan Earthquake and a total of 156 questionnaires were returned. Then in a second survey of July 2008, 500 respondents from the same research area were randomly chosen, with 318 questionnaires were collected. This research was designed to examine the attitudes and perceptions of people who did not directly experience the Wenchuan Earthquake. We have interested in how the attitudes and perceptions differ depending on gender, age, education and residential type as well as socioeconomic status, characteristics of seismic hazard such as social effect, benefit, controllability etc. The data collected was used to calibrate a multiple liner regression in which the demographic and risk characteristics were set as independent variables. The results indicated 28.2% of variance in the respondents willingness to accept (WTA) risk of earthquake. The results has also revealed that four variables—knowledge of risk, rarity of risk, fear of risk and trust in government have influenced the public s WTA on earthquake. At the same time, F-test was used to examine the equality of the four variables from the two surveys and the statistical processing has indicated a significant difference in knowledge of risk and fear of risk, which implied that these factors would change with time. The findings are helpful for the government to comprehend and predict the behaviors of people according to their demographic characteristics and preferences for seismic. The results revealed that the government should make the information of earthquake more available for individuals so that they could understand the direct and indirect severity of earthquake. Furthermore , a well designed communication of risks with public and effective mitigation policies are also necessary to improve public's rational risk judgment towards earthquake
引文
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[5] PELLING M.The vulnerability of cities:natural disasters and social resilience[M].London:Earthscan,2003．
[6] FENG Changgen(冯长根),WANG Yajun(王亚军)Safety production accidents and natural disasters in China in the year 2005[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2007,7(5) :146-160．
[7] ALCANTARA-AYALA I.Geomorphology,natural hazards,vulnerability and prevention of natural disasters in developing countries[J].Geomorphologies,2002,47(2/3/4) :107-124．
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[9] YU Qingyuan(于清源),XIE Xiaofei(谢晓非).The characters of risk perception in environment[J].Psychological Science(心理科学),2006,29(2) :362-365．
[10] SJ(O|¨)BERG L.Explaining individual risk perception:the case of nuclear waste[J].Risk Management,2004,6(1) :51-64．
[11] SCHUMM S.Erroneous perceptions of fluvial hazards[J].Geomorphology,1994,10(1/2/3/4) :129-138．
[12] SLOVIC P.Perception of risk[J].Science,1987,236(4799) :280-285．
[13] CROOPER M,SUBRAMANIAN U.Public choice between lifesaving programs:the tradeoff between qualitative factors and lives saved[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,2000,21(1) :117-149．
[14] BECHETL R B,MARANS R W,MICHELSON W.Methods in environmental and behavioral research[M].New York:Van Nostrand Reinhold Company,1987．
[15] SLOVIC P.Accident probabilities in seat belt usage:a psychological perspective[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,1978,10(4) :281-285．
[16] GRANGER K,HAYNE M.Natural hazards and the risk they pose to south-east Queensland[R].Canberra:Commonwealth Government of Australia,2001．
[17] ARMAS I.Earthquake risk perception in Bucharest,Romania[J].Risk Analysis,2006,26(5) :1223-1233．
[18] BI Jun(毕军),YANG Jie(杨洁),LI Qiliang(李其亮).Regional environmental risk analysis and management(区域环境风险分与管理)[M].Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,2006:2-3．
[19] FLYNN J,SLOVIC P,MERTZ C K,et al.Public support for earthquake risk mitigation in Portland,Oregon[J].Risk Analysis,1999,19(2) :205-216．
[20] KAHNEMAN D,TVERSKY A,SLOVIC P.Judgment under uncertainty:heuristics and biases[M].London:Cambridge Universi- ty Press,1982．
[21] KRIMSKY S,COLDING D.Social theories of risk(风险的社会理论学说)[M].XU Vuanling(徐元玲),MENG Liuhuan(孟旒焕),XU Ling(徐玲),tran.Beijing:Beijing Publishing House,2005．
[22] MARRIS C,LANGFORD I H,O'RIORDAN T.A quantitative test of the cultural theory of risk perceptions:comparison with the psychometric paradigm[J].Risk Analysis,1998,18(5) :635-647．
[23] RENN O,SLOVIC P,BROWN H S,et al.The social amplification of risk:a conceptual framework[J].Risk Analysis,1988,8(2) :177-187．
[2] EM-DAT.The OFDA/ CRED international disaster database[EB/OL].[2010-01-19] .http://www.emdat.be/disaster-profiles.
[3] BLAIKIE PM,CANNON T,WISNER B.At risk:natural hazards,people's vulnerability and disasters[M].London:Routledge,1994．
[4] TWIGG J.Corporate social responsibility and disaster reduction:a global overview[R].London:UK Department for International Development,2002．
[5] PELLING M.The vulnerability of cities:natural disasters and social resilience[M].London:Earthscan,2003．
[6] FENG Changgen(冯长根),WANG Yajun(王亚军)Safety production accidents and natural disasters in China in the year 2005[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2007,7(5) :146-160．
[7] ALCANTARA-AYALA I.Geomorphology,natural hazards,vulnerability and prevention of natural disasters in developing countries[J].Geomorphologies,2002,47(2/3/4) :107-124．
[8] Wenchuan earthquake[EB/OL].[2010-01-19] .http://baike.baidu.com/view/1587399． htm.
[9] YU Qingyuan(于清源),XIE Xiaofei(谢晓非).The characters of risk perception in environment[J].Psychological Science(心理科学),2006,29(2) :362-365．
[10] SJ(O|¨)BERG L.Explaining individual risk perception:the case of nuclear waste[J].Risk Management,2004,6(1) :51-64．
[11] SCHUMM S.Erroneous perceptions of fluvial hazards[J].Geomorphology,1994,10(1/2/3/4) :129-138．
[12] SLOVIC P.Perception of risk[J].Science,1987,236(4799) :280-285．
[13] CROOPER M,SUBRAMANIAN U.Public choice between lifesaving programs:the tradeoff between qualitative factors and lives saved[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,2000,21(1) :117-149．
[14] BECHETL R B,MARANS R W,MICHELSON W.Methods in environmental and behavioral research[M].New York:Van Nostrand Reinhold Company,1987．
[15] SLOVIC P.Accident probabilities in seat belt usage:a psychological perspective[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,1978,10(4) :281-285．
[16] GRANGER K,HAYNE M.Natural hazards and the risk they pose to south-east Queensland[R].Canberra:Commonwealth Government of Australia,2001．
[17] ARMAS I.Earthquake risk perception in Bucharest,Romania[J].Risk Analysis,2006,26(5) :1223-1233．
[18] BI Jun(毕军),YANG Jie(杨洁),LI Qiliang(李其亮).Regional environmental risk analysis and management(区域环境风险分与管理)[M].Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,2006:2-3．
[19] FLYNN J,SLOVIC P,MERTZ C K,et al.Public support for earthquake risk mitigation in Portland,Oregon[J].Risk Analysis,1999,19(2) :205-216．
[20] KAHNEMAN D,TVERSKY A,SLOVIC P.Judgment under uncertainty:heuristics and biases[M].London:Cambridge Universi- ty Press,1982．
[21] KRIMSKY S,COLDING D.Social theories of risk(风险的社会理论学说)[M].XU Vuanling(徐元玲),MENG Liuhuan(孟旒焕),XU Ling(徐玲),tran.Beijing:Beijing Publishing House,2005．
[22] MARRIS C,LANGFORD I H,O'RIORDAN T.A quantitative test of the cultural theory of risk perceptions:comparison with the psychometric paradigm[J].Risk Analysis,1998,18(5) :635-647．
[23] RENN O,SLOVIC P,BROWN H S,et al.The social amplification of risk:a conceptual framework[J].Risk Analysis,1988,8(2) :177-187．
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