上海市主要自然灾害特点与应对策略
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摘要
本文以大量的事实和翔实的数据说明,全球自然灾害的风险与日俱增,并造成日益严重的经济损失.如何防灾减灾已成为当前国际社会和学术界普遍关注的热点问题.实践表明,预报和预警灾害的发生非常重要.指出,上海作为中国东部沿海特大型城市,其可能的自然灾害主要包括海平面上升、地面沉降、台风风暴潮、暴雨内涝、赤潮、高温、雷击和地震等.上海自然灾害的特点是发生频繁,灾情严重和成因复杂.针对上海市降险减灾的严峻形势,提出应从防范重点自然灾害,开展灾害风险评估与技术研究,健全综合救灾体系,建立可操作应急预案,加强应急避难所建设,减轻防灾降险后遗症,组建防灾救灾志愿者队伍,开展减灾科普宣传和培养灾害管理人才等方面积极着手,以提高上海市应对自然灾害的能力.
The paper pointed out that with global warming,sea level rising and the accelerated urbanization process,the intensity and frequency of natural disasters,and vulnerability of society and economy are growing quickly.Therefore,in order to seek effective disaster prevention and relief measures,natural disasters become hotspots for international society and academy.In Shanghai,one of the major big cities in eastern coastal areas of China,typhoons,rainstorms,storm surges and other natural disasters occur frequently,and often cause serious damages.The characteristics of these disasters are analyzed in detail.Facing the serious situation of risk mitigation and disaster prevention in Shanghai,several countermeasures should be adopted in order to improve Shanghai's responding ability to natural disasters,which include taking strict precautions against serious natural disasters,developing disaster risk assessment methods and technologies, improving comprehensive disaster relief systems,establishing operational emergency plans, strengthening emergency shelters,relieve the disaster after-effects,promoting volunteer teams for emergency responses and rescues,carrying out disaster prevention publicity and disaster management personnel education.
The paper pointed out that with global warming,sea level rising and the accelerated urbanization process,the intensity and frequency of natural disasters,and vulnerability of society and economy are growing quickly.Therefore,in order to seek effective disaster prevention and relief measures,natural disasters become hotspots for international society and academy.In Shanghai,one of the major big cities in eastern coastal areas of China,typhoons,rainstorms,storm surges and other natural disasters occur frequently,and often cause serious damages.The characteristics of these disasters are analyzed in detail.Facing the serious situation of risk mitigation and disaster prevention in Shanghai,several countermeasures should be adopted in order to improve Shanghai's responding ability to natural disasters,which include taking strict precautions against serious natural disasters,developing disaster risk assessment methods and technologies, improving comprehensive disaster relief systems,establishing operational emergency plans, strengthening emergency shelters,relieve the disaster after-effects,promoting volunteer teams for emergency responses and rescues,carrying out disaster prevention publicity and disaster management personnel education.
引文
数据主要来源于上海市灾害防御协会编写的《上海市减灾白皮书(2005．2006年)》和《上海市综合灾情趋势预测及对策报告(2007，2008年)》．
数据主要来源于国家海洋局编写的《2007年中国海平面公报》．
中国地质环境监测院：http：//www．cigem．gov．cn/dxs/HydEvi．htm
上海市科学技术协会，“科技建言：关于加强灾害应急管控，积极应对自然灾害的建议”2008年第5期(总第24期)．
[1]SMALL C,NICHOLLS R J.A global analysis of human settlement in coastal zones[J].Journal of Coastal Resources,2003,19(3):584-599.
[2]ADGER W N,HUGHES T P,FOLKE C,et al.Social-ecological resilience to coastal dDisesters[J].Science, 2005,309:1036-1039.
[3]SMALL C,COHEN J E.Continental Physiography,Climate and the Global Distribution of Human Popula- tion[C]//Proceedings of the International Symposium on Digital Earth.Beijing:Science Press,1999,965-971.
[4]TOL R S J,BOHN M,DOWNING T E,et al.Adaptation to five meters of sea level rise[J].Journal of Risk Research,2004,9(5):467-482.
[5]KASPERSON R E,BOHN M T,GOBLE R.Assessing the Risks of a Future Rapid Large Sea Level Rise:A Review[R/OL].2005[2008-01-01].http://www.uni-hamburg.de/Wiss/FB/15/Sustainability/annex4.pdf.
[6]WEBSTER P J,HOLLAND G J,Curry J A,et al.Changes in tropical cyclone number,duration,and intensity in a Warming Environment[J].Science,2005,309:1844-1846.
[7]HOYOS C D,AGUDELO P A,WEBSTER P J,et al.Deconvolution of the factors contributing to the increase in global hurricane intensity[J].Science,2006,312(5770):94-97.
[8]VAUGHAN D C,SPOUGE J R.Risk estimation of collapse of the west Antarctic Sheet[J].Climate Change, 2002,52:52-91.
[9]DAWSON R J,HALL J W,BATES P D,et al.Quantified analysis of the probability of flooding in the Thames Estuary under imaginable worst case sea-level rise scenarios[J].International Journal of Water Resources Development,2005,21(4):577-591.
[10]肖功建，韦晓．上海城市灾害分析与减灾建设[J]．灾害学，2001，16(2)：70-75．
[11]李永平，秦曾灏，端义宏．上海地区海平面上升趋势的预测和研究[J]．地理学报，1998，53(5)：393-403．
[12]张维然，段正梁，曾正强，等．1921～2000年上海市地面沉降灾害经济损失评估[J]．同济大学学报，2003，31(6)：743-748．
[13]张维然．王仁涛．2001-2020年上海市地面沉降灾害经济损失评估[J]．水科学进展，2005，16(6)：870-874．
数据主要来源于国家海洋局编写的《2007年中国海平面公报》．
中国地质环境监测院：http：//www．cigem．gov．cn/dxs/HydEvi．htm
上海市科学技术协会，“科技建言：关于加强灾害应急管控，积极应对自然灾害的建议”2008年第5期(总第24期)．
[1]SMALL C,NICHOLLS R J.A global analysis of human settlement in coastal zones[J].Journal of Coastal Resources,2003,19(3):584-599.
[2]ADGER W N,HUGHES T P,FOLKE C,et al.Social-ecological resilience to coastal dDisesters[J].Science, 2005,309:1036-1039.
[3]SMALL C,COHEN J E.Continental Physiography,Climate and the Global Distribution of Human Popula- tion[C]//Proceedings of the International Symposium on Digital Earth.Beijing:Science Press,1999,965-971.
[4]TOL R S J,BOHN M,DOWNING T E,et al.Adaptation to five meters of sea level rise[J].Journal of Risk Research,2004,9(5):467-482.
[5]KASPERSON R E,BOHN M T,GOBLE R.Assessing the Risks of a Future Rapid Large Sea Level Rise:A Review[R/OL].2005[2008-01-01].http://www.uni-hamburg.de/Wiss/FB/15/Sustainability/annex4.pdf.
[6]WEBSTER P J,HOLLAND G J,Curry J A,et al.Changes in tropical cyclone number,duration,and intensity in a Warming Environment[J].Science,2005,309:1844-1846.
[7]HOYOS C D,AGUDELO P A,WEBSTER P J,et al.Deconvolution of the factors contributing to the increase in global hurricane intensity[J].Science,2006,312(5770):94-97.
[8]VAUGHAN D C,SPOUGE J R.Risk estimation of collapse of the west Antarctic Sheet[J].Climate Change, 2002,52:52-91.
[9]DAWSON R J,HALL J W,BATES P D,et al.Quantified analysis of the probability of flooding in the Thames Estuary under imaginable worst case sea-level rise scenarios[J].International Journal of Water Resources Development,2005,21(4):577-591.
[10]肖功建，韦晓．上海城市灾害分析与减灾建设[J]．灾害学，2001，16(2)：70-75．
[11]李永平，秦曾灏，端义宏．上海地区海平面上升趋势的预测和研究[J]．地理学报，1998，53(5)：393-403．
[12]张维然，段正梁，曾正强，等．1921～2000年上海市地面沉降灾害经济损失评估[J]．同济大学学报，2003，31(6)：743-748．
[13]张维然．王仁涛．2001-2020年上海市地面沉降灾害经济损失评估[J]．水科学进展，2005，16(6)：870-874．
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