灾变性事件引起的消费品产业链价格波及效应研究
|
摘要
为了研究地震等灾变性事件对于消费品产业链内价格传递和市场的影响,本文利用从2008年2月至2009年3月四川省江油市畜产业链进行实证研究,使用向量纠错模型(VECM)和历史分解图(HDG)分析了价格调整的动态效果和沿产业链的因果关系。结果表明,价格的调整关于速度和大小都是不对称的,外生震荡对于该产业链的不同层面产生不同影响,导致价格差益的扩大和价格不完全传递。该方法能够有效地分析灾变事件条件下消费品产业链内价格波及效应问题。
In order to investigate the effect of such catastrophic events as earthquake on the price transfer and market in the consumable industry chain,the paper illustrates with the livestock industry chain from February 2008 to March 2009 in disaster area-Jiangyou,Sichuan and uses vector error correction model(VECM) and its historical decomposition graph(HDG) to analyze the dynamical adjustment of price and the causality along the industry chain.The result shows that price adjustment is asymmetric in both speed and magnitude,and reveals a differential impact of the exogenous shock on differential levels,and thus leads to wide price margins and imperfect price transmission.The approach can effectively analyze the issue of price ripple effect on consumable industry chain incurred by catastrophic events.
In order to investigate the effect of such catastrophic events as earthquake on the price transfer and market in the consumable industry chain,the paper illustrates with the livestock industry chain from February 2008 to March 2009 in disaster area-Jiangyou,Sichuan and uses vector error correction model(VECM) and its historical decomposition graph(HDG) to analyze the dynamical adjustment of price and the causality along the industry chain.The result shows that price adjustment is asymmetric in both speed and magnitude,and reveals a differential impact of the exogenous shock on differential levels,and thus leads to wide price margins and imperfect price transmission.The approach can effectively analyze the issue of price ripple effect on consumable industry chain incurred by catastrophic events.
引文
[1]张珣,余乐安,黎建强,汪寿阳.重大突发事件对原油价格的影响[J].系统工程理论与实践,2009,29(3):10-15
[2]Lloyd T.,McCorriston S.,Morgan W.How do Markets Respond to Food Scares[R].Discussion Papers in Economics,University ofNottingham,No.03/18,2003
[3]Saghaian,et al.Dynamics of Price Transmission in the Presence of a Major Food Safety Shock:Impact of H5N1 Avian Influenzaon the Turkish Poultry Sector[J].Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics,2008,40(3):1015-1031
[4]Ben-Kaabia M.,Gill J.M.,Boshnjaku L.Price Transmission Asymmetries in the Spanish Lamb Sector[C].X.Congress of EuropeanAssociation of Agricultural Economists,Zaragoza,Spain,August,2002:28-31
[5]Luoma A.,Luoto J.,Taipale M.Threshold Cointegration and Asymmetric Price Transmission in Finish Beef and Pork Markets[R].Pellervo Economic Research Institute,Working Paper,2004
[6]Pelzman S.Prices Rise Faster than They Fall[J].Journal of Political Economy,2000,108(3):446-502
[7]Bakucs L.Z.,Ferto I.Marketing Margins and Price Transmission on the Hungarian Pork Meat Market[J].Agribusiness,2005,21(2):273-286
[8]Jumah A.The Long Run,Market Power and Retail Pricing[J].Empirical Economics,2004,9(3):605-620
[9]焦建玲,范英,魏一鸣.基于VECM的汽柴油价格不对称性分析[J].中国管理科学,2006,14(3):97-102
[10]丁晨,屠梅曾.论房价在货币政策传导机制中的作用——基于VECM分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,24(11):106-114,132
[11]毕玉江.人民币汇率变动对中国进口商品价格的传递效应——基于VECM的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,25(8):70-82
[12]陈建军,胡晨光.产业集聚的集聚效应——以长江三角洲次区域为例的理论和实证分析[J].管理世界,2008,(6):68-83
[13]杨海珍,李银华,赵艳平等.金融风暴下国际资本流动态势及其对中国宏观经济的影响[J].管理评论,2009,21(2):40-45,67
[14]Nicholas E.Piggott Thomas L.Marsh.Does Food Safety Information Impact U.S.Meat Demand&Quest?[J].American Journal ofAgricultural Economics,2004,186(1):154-174
[2]Lloyd T.,McCorriston S.,Morgan W.How do Markets Respond to Food Scares[R].Discussion Papers in Economics,University ofNottingham,No.03/18,2003
[3]Saghaian,et al.Dynamics of Price Transmission in the Presence of a Major Food Safety Shock:Impact of H5N1 Avian Influenzaon the Turkish Poultry Sector[J].Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics,2008,40(3):1015-1031
[4]Ben-Kaabia M.,Gill J.M.,Boshnjaku L.Price Transmission Asymmetries in the Spanish Lamb Sector[C].X.Congress of EuropeanAssociation of Agricultural Economists,Zaragoza,Spain,August,2002:28-31
[5]Luoma A.,Luoto J.,Taipale M.Threshold Cointegration and Asymmetric Price Transmission in Finish Beef and Pork Markets[R].Pellervo Economic Research Institute,Working Paper,2004
[6]Pelzman S.Prices Rise Faster than They Fall[J].Journal of Political Economy,2000,108(3):446-502
[7]Bakucs L.Z.,Ferto I.Marketing Margins and Price Transmission on the Hungarian Pork Meat Market[J].Agribusiness,2005,21(2):273-286
[8]Jumah A.The Long Run,Market Power and Retail Pricing[J].Empirical Economics,2004,9(3):605-620
[9]焦建玲,范英,魏一鸣.基于VECM的汽柴油价格不对称性分析[J].中国管理科学,2006,14(3):97-102
[10]丁晨,屠梅曾.论房价在货币政策传导机制中的作用——基于VECM分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,24(11):106-114,132
[11]毕玉江.人民币汇率变动对中国进口商品价格的传递效应——基于VECM的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,25(8):70-82
[12]陈建军,胡晨光.产业集聚的集聚效应——以长江三角洲次区域为例的理论和实证分析[J].管理世界,2008,(6):68-83
[13]杨海珍,李银华,赵艳平等.金融风暴下国际资本流动态势及其对中国宏观经济的影响[J].管理评论,2009,21(2):40-45,67
[14]Nicholas E.Piggott Thomas L.Marsh.Does Food Safety Information Impact U.S.Meat Demand&Quest?[J].American Journal ofAgricultural Economics,2004,186(1):154-174
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心