突发事件的事件链概率模型
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摘要
突发事件发生后,可能会引发一系列的次生、衍生事件,形成事件链式效应。事件链式效应使得突发事件更加复杂,因此对突发事件链式效应的研究对应急管理工作具有重要指导意义。该文在现有灾害理论研究的基础上,针对突发事件的发生规律,提出了突发事件由4个要素组成,即致灾因子、承灾体、孕灾环境和相互作用形式,并进而提出了一种描述事件链式效应的方法。以地震事件链为例对该方法进行了实例验证,结果表明该方法可对突发事件链式效应进行有效的描述。
A series of secondary and derived events may occur after an emergency, which is called a disaster chain. The disaster chain makes the emergency event more complex; therefore, research is needed to improve emergency management of disaster chains. Theories of disaster science state that an emergency event consists of four elements: hazard formative factors, hazard affected bodies, hazard producing environment, and mutual functions. This paper presents a method to describe the disaster chains. The model is then used to describe the disaster chain of an earthquake with the results showing that the model accurately describes the emergency event and the event chain.
A series of secondary and derived events may occur after an emergency, which is called a disaster chain. The disaster chain makes the emergency event more complex; therefore, research is needed to improve emergency management of disaster chains. Theories of disaster science state that an emergency event consists of four elements: hazard formative factors, hazard affected bodies, hazard producing environment, and mutual functions. This paper presents a method to describe the disaster chains. The model is then used to describe the disaster chain of an earthquake with the results showing that the model accurately describes the emergency event and the event chain.
引文
[1]袁宏永,付成伟,疏学明,等.论事件链、预案链在应急管理中的角色与应用[J].中国应急管理,2008(1):28-31.YUAN Hongyong,FU Chengwei,SHU Xueming,et al.The role and application of disaster chain and emergency response planning chain in emergency management[J].China Emergency Management,2008(1):28-31.(in Chinese)
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[11]陈长坤,孙云凤,李智.冰雪灾害危机事件演化及衍生链特征分析[J].灾害学,2009,24(1):18-21.CHEN Changkun,SUN Yunfeng,LI Zhi.Characteristic analysis of evolution and derivative on chain of risk events caused by snow and ice disasters[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2009,24(1):18-21.(in Chinese)
[12]范海军,肖盛燮,郝艳广,等.自然灾害链式效应结构关系及其复杂性规律研究[J].岩土力学与工程学报,2006,25(S1):2603-2611.FAN Haijun,XI AOShengxie,HAO Yanguang,et al.Study on structural relation of chain effects on natural disaster and its complexity[J].Chinses Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2006,25(S1):2603-2611.(in Chinese)
[13]文传甲.广义灾害、灾害链及其防治探讨[J].灾害学,2000,15(4):13-18.WEN Chuanjia.Generalized disaster,disaster chain and their prevention and control[J].Journal of Catastorphology,2000,15(4):13-18.(in Chinese)
[14]Salzano E,Iervolino I,Fabbrocino G.Seismic risk of at mospheric storage tanks in the framework of quantitative risk analysis[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2003,16:403-409.
[15]陈棋福,陈凌.地震损失预测评估中的易损性分析[J].中国地震,1999,15(2):97-105.CHEN Qifu,CHEN Ling.Vulnerability analysis in earthquake loss esti mate[J].Earthquake Researchin China,1999,15(2):97-105.(in Chinese)
[2]史培军.再论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(4):6-14.SHI Peijun.Theory and practice of disaster study[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1996,5(4):6-14.(in Chinese)
[3]Wang H B,Sassa K,Xu W Y.Analysis of a spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the2004Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata Prefecture,Japan[J].Natural Hazards,2007,41:43-60.
[4]Cheng J D,Huang Y C,Wu H L,et al.Hydrometeorological and land use attributes of debris flows and debris floods during typhoon Toraji,July29-30,2001in central Tai wan[J].Journal of Hydrology,2005,306:161-173.
[5]Dai F C,Deng J H,Tham L G,et al.Alarge landslide in Zigui County,Three Gorges area[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,2004,41(6):1233-1240.
[6]Iverson R M.Landslide triggering by rain infiltration[J].Water Resources Research,2000,36:1897-1910.
[7]韩金良,吴树仁,汪华斌.地质灾害链[J].地学前缘,2007,14(6):11-23.HAN Jinliang,WU Shuren,WANG Huabin.Preli minary study on geological hazard chains[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2007,14(6):11-23.(in Chinese)
[8]彭剑峰,张立,栗云召.豫西山地自然灾害链效应研究[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(10):4622-4624.PENG Jianfeng,ZHANG Li,LI Yunzhao.Research on natural disasters chain effects in western Henan mountains[J].Journal of Anhui Agri Sci,2009,37(10):4622-4624.(in Chinese)
[9]门可佩,高建国.重大灾害链及其防御[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(1):270-275.MEN Kepei,GAO Jianguo.Severe disaster chain and its defense[J].Progress in Geophysics,2008,23(1):270-275.(in Chinese)
[10]李明,唐红梅,叶四桥.典型地质灾害链式机理研究[J].灾害学,2008,23(1):1-5.LI Ming,TANG Hongmei,YE Siqiao.Research on chain rule of typical geological disaster[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2008,23(1):1-5.(in Chinese)
[11]陈长坤,孙云凤,李智.冰雪灾害危机事件演化及衍生链特征分析[J].灾害学,2009,24(1):18-21.CHEN Changkun,SUN Yunfeng,LI Zhi.Characteristic analysis of evolution and derivative on chain of risk events caused by snow and ice disasters[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2009,24(1):18-21.(in Chinese)
[12]范海军,肖盛燮,郝艳广,等.自然灾害链式效应结构关系及其复杂性规律研究[J].岩土力学与工程学报,2006,25(S1):2603-2611.FAN Haijun,XI AOShengxie,HAO Yanguang,et al.Study on structural relation of chain effects on natural disaster and its complexity[J].Chinses Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2006,25(S1):2603-2611.(in Chinese)
[13]文传甲.广义灾害、灾害链及其防治探讨[J].灾害学,2000,15(4):13-18.WEN Chuanjia.Generalized disaster,disaster chain and their prevention and control[J].Journal of Catastorphology,2000,15(4):13-18.(in Chinese)
[14]Salzano E,Iervolino I,Fabbrocino G.Seismic risk of at mospheric storage tanks in the framework of quantitative risk analysis[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2003,16:403-409.
[15]陈棋福,陈凌.地震损失预测评估中的易损性分析[J].中国地震,1999,15(2):97-105.CHEN Qifu,CHEN Ling.Vulnerability analysis in earthquake loss esti mate[J].Earthquake Researchin China,1999,15(2):97-105.(in Chinese)
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