大连市主要自然灾害危险性评价
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摘要
以大连市主要自然灾害为评价对象,探讨自然灾害评价机理,并在此基础上依据灾害发生可能性、作用时间和造成损失三方面建立大连市洪水灾害、地质灾害、地震灾害、气象灾害和环境污染灾害危险性评价指标体系。查阅大连1949年以来《史志》记载资料,在GIS支持下,初步创建大连市106个乡镇和公里网格单元的灾害危险性统计数据库,采用主成分—熵值权重法确定指标权重,利用GIS技术属性数据管理和空间分析功能等实现数据处理和分析,针对各类灾害因子影响的空间特点及数据来源的多途径,采用"行政单元—动态网格"交互赋值技术,在MapInfo、Vm26环境下实现了大连市单要素及各类灾害危险性定量评价,可视化展示大连各类自然灾害危险性的空间差异,并进行主要灾害因子排序,为大连市四类主体功能区的划分与减灾防治区划提供参考依据。
Dalian,a coastal city located in the southern Liaodong Peninsula,is prone to natural hazards.The natural hazards that Dalian suffers most are diverse,with high frequency and wide distribution.Various hazards have become a major concern in urban economic and sustainable development currently.Natural hazards risk assessment involves a number of data,which are much of spatial,non-linear and random features.GIS,as a useful tool to analyze and manage spatial information,has a huge superiority.A case study in Dalian City explored the assessment mechanism for natural hazards,and developed a method of spatial differences assessment based on GIS in this paper.The method includes 4 steps:(1) Developing natural hazards risk assessment indicators system concerning five types of hazard related to flood,geology,earthquake,meteorology and environmental pollution on the basis of probability of hazard,endangering time and loss;(2) Digitizing Dalian City and setting its 106 county units database and kilometric GRID database of natural hazards indicators,referring to Dalian history records on the basis of remote sensing data and site data,which can provide accurate and substantial data for natural hazards study of Dalian City;(3) Figuring out single element risk index and multi-elements risk composite index of natural hazards indicators by using Graham method and the principal components-entropy with the weight of indicator;(4) Classifying the composite risk zone and mapping the assessment result of natural hazards risk in grid by MapInfo of assigning method and vertical map tools,and ranking the major hazard factors.The visual and quantitative spatial differences of natural hazards risk based on GIS enable regional planners to know the zonation of hazard risk accurately in planning the principal function region.The results can provide references for hazard prevention and reduction of Dalian City.
Dalian,a coastal city located in the southern Liaodong Peninsula,is prone to natural hazards.The natural hazards that Dalian suffers most are diverse,with high frequency and wide distribution.Various hazards have become a major concern in urban economic and sustainable development currently.Natural hazards risk assessment involves a number of data,which are much of spatial,non-linear and random features.GIS,as a useful tool to analyze and manage spatial information,has a huge superiority.A case study in Dalian City explored the assessment mechanism for natural hazards,and developed a method of spatial differences assessment based on GIS in this paper.The method includes 4 steps:(1) Developing natural hazards risk assessment indicators system concerning five types of hazard related to flood,geology,earthquake,meteorology and environmental pollution on the basis of probability of hazard,endangering time and loss;(2) Digitizing Dalian City and setting its 106 county units database and kilometric GRID database of natural hazards indicators,referring to Dalian history records on the basis of remote sensing data and site data,which can provide accurate and substantial data for natural hazards study of Dalian City;(3) Figuring out single element risk index and multi-elements risk composite index of natural hazards indicators by using Graham method and the principal components-entropy with the weight of indicator;(4) Classifying the composite risk zone and mapping the assessment result of natural hazards risk in grid by MapInfo of assigning method and vertical map tools,and ranking the major hazard factors.The visual and quantitative spatial differences of natural hazards risk based on GIS enable regional planners to know the zonation of hazard risk accurately in planning the principal function region.The results can provide references for hazard prevention and reduction of Dalian City.
引文
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[21]伏捷,李永化,张戈,等.大连市海水入侵灾害危险性评价.海洋开发与管理,2009,26(9):38～42.
[22]张超,万庆,张继权.基于格网数据的洪水灾害风险评估方法——以日本新川洪灾为例.地球信息科学,2003,14(4):69～73.
[23]杨俊,李雪铭,王利,等.基于赋值技术的地形分析及应用.测绘通报,2005,16(1):61～62.
[24]王耕,吴伟.基于GIS网格技术的流域生态安全可视化研究.大连理工大学学报,2006,46(5):667～672.
[25]彭慧,徐利淼.缓冲区分析与生态环境影响评价.天津师范大学学报(自然科学版),2004,24(2):34～38.
[26]田国珍,刘新立,王平,等.中国洪水灾害风险区划及其成因分析.灾害学,2006,21(2):1～6.
[27]蒋卫国,盛绍学,朱晓华,等.区域洪水灾害风险格局演变分析——以马来西亚吉兰丹州为例.地理研究,2008,27(3):502～509.
[28]赵霞,王平,龚亚丽,等.基于GIS的内蒙古中部区域洪水灾害风险评价.北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2007,43(6):666～669.
[29]黄玲玲,成建梅,刘军,等.海岸带地质灾害评估理论与方法研究进展.水文地质工程地质,2009,(1):133～137.
[30]柳源.中国地质灾害(以崩、滑、流为主)危险性分析与区划.中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,14(1):95～99.
[31]张春山,李国俊,张业成,等.黄河上游地区崩塌滑坡泥石流地质灾害风险评价.地质力学学报,2006,12(12):211～218.
[32]危福泉,刘高焕,姚新,等.地震灾害预测和应急模拟系统的设计与应用——以永安市城市应急系统为例.地理研究,2005,24(5):749～756.
[33]王志涛,苏经宇,马东辉,等.城市地震灾害风险区划的研究.中国安全科学学报,2008,21(2):135～141.
[2]Snoussi M,Ouchani T,Niazi S.Vulnerability assessment of the i mpact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccancoast:The case of the Mediterranean eastern zone.Estuarine,Coastal and Shelf Science,2007,22(10):1～8.
[3]杨军,刘兴荣,冯乐涛,等.洛门镇响河沟泥石流危险性评价与危险范围预测.防灾科技学院学报,2009,11(2):83～85.
[4]司康平,田原,汪大明,等.滑坡灾害危险性评价的3种统计方法比较——以深圳市为例.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2009,45(4):639～646.
[5]杜鹃,何飞,史培军.湘江流域洪水灾害综合风险评价.自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):38～44.
[6]李洪然,李广杰,秦胜伍.和龙市东城镇泥石流灾害趋势多元分析与危险性评价.吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2005,35(1):97～103.
[7]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价理论与实践.北京:科学出版社,2005.122～134.
[8]许世远,王军,石纯,等.沿海城市自然灾害风险研究.地理学报,2006,61(2):127～138.
[9]张盼娟,陈晋.我国自然灾害类应急预案评价方法研究(Ⅲ):可操作性评价.中国安全科学学报,2009,18(10):16～25.
[10]黄蕙,温家洪,司瑞洁,等.自然灾害风险评估国际计划述评Ⅰ——指标体系.灾害学,2008,23(2):112～116.
[11]张海峰,白永平,刘峰贵.基于GIS的青南高原自然灾害综合区划研究.干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(7):99～104.
[12]张虹.三峡库区(重庆段)自然灾害危险性综合评价.重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版),2008,25(1):1～4.
[13]赵洪涛,李霞,王得楷,等.甘肃省主要自然灾害危险性评价研究.甘肃科学学报,2009,21(1):85～87.
[14]张丽,李广杰,周志广,等.基于灰色聚类的区域地质灾害危险性分区评价.自然灾害学报,2009,18(1):164～168.
[15]黄俊宝.基于GIS的地质灾害危险性模糊数学评判.福建地质,2009,(4):346～351.
[16]龙万学,谭勇鸿,林剑.基于GIS的贵州省地质灾害危险性评价.地理空间信息,2009,7(6):24～27.
[17]李为乐,唐川,杨武年,等.RS和GIS技术在区域泥石流危险性区划中的应用研究.灾害学,2008,23(2):71～75.
[18]Lee S.Application of logistic regression model andits validationfor landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS andremote sensing data.International Journal of Remote Sensing,2005,26(7):1477～1491.
[19]Al-Jeneid S,Bahnassy M,Nasr S,et al.Vulnerability assessment and adaptationto thei mpacts of sealevel rise onthe Kingdomof Bahrain.Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2008,13(1):87～104.
[20]石勇,石纯,孙蕾,等.沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究——以上海浦东新区为例.中国人口.资源与环境,2008,18(4):24～17.
[21]伏捷,李永化,张戈,等.大连市海水入侵灾害危险性评价.海洋开发与管理,2009,26(9):38～42.
[22]张超,万庆,张继权.基于格网数据的洪水灾害风险评估方法——以日本新川洪灾为例.地球信息科学,2003,14(4):69～73.
[23]杨俊,李雪铭,王利,等.基于赋值技术的地形分析及应用.测绘通报,2005,16(1):61～62.
[24]王耕,吴伟.基于GIS网格技术的流域生态安全可视化研究.大连理工大学学报,2006,46(5):667～672.
[25]彭慧,徐利淼.缓冲区分析与生态环境影响评价.天津师范大学学报(自然科学版),2004,24(2):34～38.
[26]田国珍,刘新立,王平,等.中国洪水灾害风险区划及其成因分析.灾害学,2006,21(2):1～6.
[27]蒋卫国,盛绍学,朱晓华,等.区域洪水灾害风险格局演变分析——以马来西亚吉兰丹州为例.地理研究,2008,27(3):502～509.
[28]赵霞,王平,龚亚丽,等.基于GIS的内蒙古中部区域洪水灾害风险评价.北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2007,43(6):666～669.
[29]黄玲玲,成建梅,刘军,等.海岸带地质灾害评估理论与方法研究进展.水文地质工程地质,2009,(1):133～137.
[30]柳源.中国地质灾害(以崩、滑、流为主)危险性分析与区划.中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,14(1):95～99.
[31]张春山,李国俊,张业成,等.黄河上游地区崩塌滑坡泥石流地质灾害风险评价.地质力学学报,2006,12(12):211～218.
[32]危福泉,刘高焕,姚新,等.地震灾害预测和应急模拟系统的设计与应用——以永安市城市应急系统为例.地理研究,2005,24(5):749～756.
[33]王志涛,苏经宇,马东辉,等.城市地震灾害风险区划的研究.中国安全科学学报,2008,21(2):135～141.
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