地震学异常度预测法在天山及周边地区的应用
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摘要
以我国南北天山、塔里木盆地及昆仑山脉北缘地区的地震学资料为例 ,运用地震学异常度预测法 ,对由地震频度 N值、蠕变值、缺震值、η值、Rm 值和 GL值等地震学预报参量进行空间扫描所得出的数据进行综合异常判定 ,得出了近几年的综合预测图。内符检验结果表明 :(1)除了新疆、青海、西藏三省区交界地区由于地震台网较稀而监控能力偏低外 ,其他地区 ,对于 5级以上地震的监控能力在综合预测图上可以达到 80 %以上 ,6级以上地震在综合预测图上也均有较好的异常显示。 (2 )所有异常区有 5级以上地震的概率为 73.7% ;大于 2°× 2°的大异常区所对应的 6级以上地震的概率为55.6 %。
Exemplified by the seismological information in South North Tianshan,Tarim Basin and the northern edge of Kunlun Mountains,six parameters of N value,creep value,earthquake absent value,η value,R m value and GL value are used to made a spatial scanning according to the principle and calculating method of seismological anomaly degree prediction.From the scanning results,a synthetic anomaly judgement is made,and the synthetic prediction charts in the near few years are given.The internal uniform result shows:(1) The monitoring ability is relatively low in the juncture of Xinjiang,Qinghai and Tibet because of sparse seismological network.But in other areas,the monitoring ability for M S≥5.0 earthquake can be more than 80 per cent on synthetic prediction charts.For M S≥6.0 earthquakes,there is also good appearance in the charts.(2) The probability of occuring M S≥5.0 earthquakes is as much as 73.7 per cent in all anomalous areas;and the probability of M S≥6.0 events is 55.6 per cent in large anomaly areas of 2°×2° and above。
Exemplified by the seismological information in South North Tianshan,Tarim Basin and the northern edge of Kunlun Mountains,six parameters of N value,creep value,earthquake absent value,η value,R m value and GL value are used to made a spatial scanning according to the principle and calculating method of seismological anomaly degree prediction.From the scanning results,a synthetic anomaly judgement is made,and the synthetic prediction charts in the near few years are given.The internal uniform result shows:(1) The monitoring ability is relatively low in the juncture of Xinjiang,Qinghai and Tibet because of sparse seismological network.But in other areas,the monitoring ability for M S≥5.0 earthquake can be more than 80 per cent on synthetic prediction charts.For M S≥6.0 earthquakes,there is also good appearance in the charts.(2) The probability of occuring M S≥5.0 earthquakes is as much as 73.7 per cent in all anomalous areas;and the probability of M S≥6.0 events is 55.6 per cent in large anomaly areas of 2°×2° and above。
引文
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2 陈立军 ,周 霞 .华南地区 1998年度地震趋势分析——地震学异常度预测法 [J].地震学刊 ,1999,(1) :9～ 16 .
3 陈立军 ,周 霞 ,陈晓逢 .地震学异常度预测法的概念、计算与应用 [J].华南地震 ,1999,19(3) :10～ 19.
4 陆远忠 ,阎利军 ,郭若眉 .用于中短期地震预报的一些地震活动性参量相关性讨论 [J].震情研究 ,1998,(3) :39～ 48.
5 李志雄 ,高 旭 .地震非均匀度的研究及在强震中期预报中的应用 [J].地震 ,1994,14(6 ) :11～ 18.
6 国家地震局科技监测司 .地震学分析预报方法程式指南 [M].北京 :地震出版社 ,1990
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