地震预测的构造物理模型研究
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摘要
在系统收集和分析中国大陆的活动构造、地震活动和地球物理场资料的基础上,初步圈定出769个构造物理潜在震源,并对其中477个位于主要强震区、带内的潜在震源进行了空间几何定量描述和基本震源参数的系统分析,在GIS平台上开发了分析系统,逐一计算了每一潜在震源的十年发震概率,圈定了1999～2008年的强震危险区,根据发震概率的大小对危险区的危险性进行分类。近几年发生的强震与预测结果的对比检验结果表明,用构造物理模型确定的十年地震危险区具有较好的预测效果。
Having collected and analyzed the active faults, seismicity and geophysical fields, 769 potential tectonophysical seismic sources were defined. 477 sources studied in this paper are located along major seismic belts in China's continent. The spatial geometric data are quantitatively described and the source parameters are systematically studied. The analytical system is developed on GIS platform. The probability of strong earthquake occurrence in the decade is calculated. The danger regions in 1999~2008 are predicted. These danger regions can be divided into 3 grades according to their probability. The prediction shows a good result predicting the strong earthquake occurrence from 1999 to 2001 in China's continent.
Having collected and analyzed the active faults, seismicity and geophysical fields, 769 potential tectonophysical seismic sources were defined. 477 sources studied in this paper are located along major seismic belts in China's continent. The spatial geometric data are quantitatively described and the source parameters are systematically studied. The analytical system is developed on GIS platform. The probability of strong earthquake occurrence in the decade is calculated. The danger regions in 1999~2008 are predicted. These danger regions can be divided into 3 grades according to their probability. The prediction shows a good result predicting the strong earthquake occurrence from 1999 to 2001 in China's continent.
引文
[1] 王绳祖.强震危险区的多判据原理[A].国家地震局地质研究所.现代地壳运动研究(4) [C].北京:地震出版社,1989． 16-22．
[2] 王绳祖.浅源强震的判据和发展概率[J].地震地质,1990,12(2) :131-140．
[3] 王绳祖.震源应力降、错动速度及突发失稳判据[J].地震地质,1990,12(3) :237-242．
[4] 王绳祖.北京地区潜在震源区发震概率的多判据构造物理方法预测[J].中国地震,1990,6(3) :11-18．
[5] 王绳祖.青藏高原中部地区潜在震源发震概率的构造物理方法研究[J].地震地质,1993,15(1) :1-12．
[6] 王绳祖.烈度的几何特征与震源参数的估计[J].地震地质,1988,10(1) :61-69．
[7] 王绳祖.亚洲大陆岩石圈多层构造模型和塑性流动网络[J].地质学报,1993,67(1) :1-18．
[8] 王绳祖.大陆岩石圈的网络状流动、塑性波和地震活动[A].国家地震局地质研究所.现今地球动力学研究及其应用[C].北京:地震出版社,1985． 20-27．
[9] 王绳祖,李建国,张宗淳.岩石圈塑性流动波的实验研究(Ⅰ)[J].地度地质,2001,23(3) :407-418．
[10] 国家地震局.中国地震烈度区划图(1990) 概率[M].北京:地震出版社,1996． 64-109．
[11] 鄢家全,时振梁,汪素云,等.中国及邻区现代构造应力场的区域特征[J].地震学报,1979,1(1) :9-24．
[12] 汪素云.中国东部大陆的地震构造应力场[J].地震学报,1985,3(3) :10-19．
[13] 应绍奋.中国大陆垂直向现代地壳运动基本特征[J].中国地震,1988,4(4) :6-12．
[14] 张祖胜.应用大地形变带测量资料估计我国大陆地区近几十年的地震趋势[A].国家地震局.中国地震大形势预报研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1990． 12-19．
[15] 邓志辉,王绳祖,黄秀铭,等.强震预测的构造物理概率模型及近期强震危险区预测[A].国家地震局地质研究所.2000年度地震危险性预测研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1999． 50-59．
[2] 王绳祖.浅源强震的判据和发展概率[J].地震地质,1990,12(2) :131-140．
[3] 王绳祖.震源应力降、错动速度及突发失稳判据[J].地震地质,1990,12(3) :237-242．
[4] 王绳祖.北京地区潜在震源区发震概率的多判据构造物理方法预测[J].中国地震,1990,6(3) :11-18．
[5] 王绳祖.青藏高原中部地区潜在震源发震概率的构造物理方法研究[J].地震地质,1993,15(1) :1-12．
[6] 王绳祖.烈度的几何特征与震源参数的估计[J].地震地质,1988,10(1) :61-69．
[7] 王绳祖.亚洲大陆岩石圈多层构造模型和塑性流动网络[J].地质学报,1993,67(1) :1-18．
[8] 王绳祖.大陆岩石圈的网络状流动、塑性波和地震活动[A].国家地震局地质研究所.现今地球动力学研究及其应用[C].北京:地震出版社,1985． 20-27．
[9] 王绳祖,李建国,张宗淳.岩石圈塑性流动波的实验研究(Ⅰ)[J].地度地质,2001,23(3) :407-418．
[10] 国家地震局.中国地震烈度区划图(1990) 概率[M].北京:地震出版社,1996． 64-109．
[11] 鄢家全,时振梁,汪素云,等.中国及邻区现代构造应力场的区域特征[J].地震学报,1979,1(1) :9-24．
[12] 汪素云.中国东部大陆的地震构造应力场[J].地震学报,1985,3(3) :10-19．
[13] 应绍奋.中国大陆垂直向现代地壳运动基本特征[J].中国地震,1988,4(4) :6-12．
[14] 张祖胜.应用大地形变带测量资料估计我国大陆地区近几十年的地震趋势[A].国家地震局.中国地震大形势预报研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1990． 12-19．
[15] 邓志辉,王绳祖,黄秀铭,等.强震预测的构造物理概率模型及近期强震危险区预测[A].国家地震局地质研究所.2000年度地震危险性预测研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1999． 50-59．
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