历史地震序列类型的划分及其应用刍议
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摘要
作者对我国历史地震记载特点进行了分析 ,探索了历史地震序列类型划分的建议方案 ,即根据历史地震序列的记载特点 ,将其分为“安全类”和“危险类”两种类型。在此基础上以山东地区为例 ,对山东及邻区历史地震序列分类。结果表明 ,区内历史地震序列中安全类约占83 9%,危险类约占 16 1%,这一结果与本区现代地震序列类型划分结果大体一致 ,但与全国现代地震序列类型统计结果有一定差异。由于受地震史料记载详略因素的限制 ,上述结果是粗略的、初步的 ,但仍是对于现代地震序列类型信息的一种补充。所得结果可在震后早期趋势快速判定中参考。
On the basis of the analysis on the characteristics of historical recorded events in China, a suggested method to recognize the historical event types has been explored. Two types, the “safe type” that would not be followed by stronger events and “risk type” that would be stronger events followed, are defined. This method has been applied to the historical recorded events over Shandong Province and found that 83.9% of the historical events belong to the “safe type” and 16.1% belong to the “risk type”. This is very similar to the result on the earthquake types recognition one had with the modern catalogue in this region, while there is a little bit difference from the statistical result for the earthquake types one got with the modern catalogue over China as a whole. Limited by the omission of historical records for earthquakes, the result might be preliminary and rough somehow, while it really be a useful supplement for the earthquake types research with modern seismic data. Also, the application to the early judgment on the seismicity tendency after main shocks occurring in Shandong region has been discussed.
On the basis of the analysis on the characteristics of historical recorded events in China, a suggested method to recognize the historical event types has been explored. Two types, the “safe type” that would not be followed by stronger events and “risk type” that would be stronger events followed, are defined. This method has been applied to the historical recorded events over Shandong Province and found that 83.9% of the historical events belong to the “safe type” and 16.1% belong to the “risk type”. This is very similar to the result on the earthquake types recognition one had with the modern catalogue in this region, while there is a little bit difference from the statistical result for the earthquake types one got with the modern catalogue over China as a whole. Limited by the omission of historical records for earthquakes, the result might be preliminary and rough somehow, while it really be a useful supplement for the earthquake types research with modern seismic data. Also, the application to the early judgment on the seismicity tendency after main shocks occurring in Shandong region has been discussed.
引文
山东省地震史料编辑室,1983,山东省地震史料汇编,北京:地震出版社。
吴戈、房贺岩、李志田等,1992,东北地震史料辑览,北京:地震出版社。
谢毓寿、蔡美彪,1983,中国地震历史资料汇编(第一卷至第三卷),北京:地震出版社。
中国地震局,1998,地震现场工作大纲和技术指南,25～26,北京:地震出版社。
吴戈、房贺岩、李志田等,1992,东北地震史料辑览,北京:地震出版社。
谢毓寿、蔡美彪,1983,中国地震历史资料汇编(第一卷至第三卷),北京:地震出版社。
中国地震局,1998,地震现场工作大纲和技术指南,25～26,北京:地震出版社。
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