一次地震预报有效性的“距准误差”评价法——中短期前兆及预报效能评价之一
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摘要
一次地震预报有效性的评价是中短期前兆预报效能统计评分的基础。研究提出了基于误差概念的距准误差评价法(打靶模型)。以预报三要素(φ、λ可合为“地域”一个要素)的目标点为“准”,以准理想预报尺度围成的封闭区为“靶心”,以可容忍误差尺度为“靶径”。实际地震与目标点的距离(误差)小于准理想尺度,则地震预报击中“靶心”即为实现准理想预报(评分为1),以此向外逐渐扩大到可容忍误差尺度为止,误差超过此尺度即为“脱靶”(评分为0)。根据当前预报的实际水平,考虑了中期、短期和短临三类预报及预报震级的不同,分别给予准理想预报尺度和可容忍误差尺度的约定标准。实例证明方法有效可用。
The evaluation of the efficiency of an earthquake prediction is based on statistical e-valuation of the efficiency of middle-short term precursor prediction. Our study comes up with the evaluation method of "Error from target center" based on the concept of "error" ("target practice" model), which takes the objective point of three factors to predict as center, the closed area circled by semi-precision prediction scale as target standard point, acceptance-error scale as target radius. If the distance between the real earthquake and the objective point (error) is less than the semi-precision scale, prediction hits the target center, i. e. realizing the semi-precision prediction (The score is 1). Then extending gradually to the acceptance-scale, exceeding the scale means "off-target" (score 0). According to present actual level of prediction , and considering the three types of prediction, the mid-term, short-term and short and impending prediction, and the difference of prediction magnitudes, we give the standard of semi-precision scale and acceptance-error scale. The cases have verified that method is efficient and available.
The evaluation of the efficiency of an earthquake prediction is based on statistical e-valuation of the efficiency of middle-short term precursor prediction. Our study comes up with the evaluation method of "Error from target center" based on the concept of "error" ("target practice" model), which takes the objective point of three factors to predict as center, the closed area circled by semi-precision prediction scale as target standard point, acceptance-error scale as target radius. If the distance between the real earthquake and the objective point (error) is less than the semi-precision scale, prediction hits the target center, i. e. realizing the semi-precision prediction (The score is 1). Then extending gradually to the acceptance-scale, exceeding the scale means "off-target" (score 0). According to present actual level of prediction , and considering the three types of prediction, the mid-term, short-term and short and impending prediction, and the difference of prediction magnitudes, we give the standard of semi-precision scale and acceptance-error scale. The cases have verified that method is efficient and available.
引文
① 罗兰格等,评价地震预报效能的K指数,震情研究,1991,4。
② 石耀林,地震预报座谈会上的发言,科技委论坛,1997,3。
③ 国家气象局,重要天气预报质量评定方法(试行),1987。
[1] 董颂声,陆学根.希腊VAN地震预报方法的进展和争论(Ⅰ)[J].国际地震动态,1998(12) :11-17．
[2] 董颂声,陆学根.希腊VAN地震预报方法的进展和争论(Ⅱ)[J].国际地震动态,1999(1) :12-20．
[3] A M. K [J].AHCCP,Cep.1955,4:105-116．
[4] 顾震潮.从信息论看天气预报的评分和使用[J].气象学报,1957,28(4) :1-10．
[5] 陈培善,林邦慧.极值理论在中长期预报中的应用[J].地球物理学报,1973,16(1) :6-24．
[6] 许绍燮.地震预报能力评分[A].国家地震局监测预报司.地震预报方法实用化研究文集地震学专辑[C].北京:学术期刊出版社,1989． 586-590．
[7] 曹聿明.定量研究预报效果的一种方法[J].地震战线,1975,4:32-36．
[8] 天津市地震局地震处,北京市地震队.地下水与地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1976． 164-165．
[9] 洪时中.关于地震预报评分问题的初步讨论[J].地震研究,1981,4(3) :334-345．
[10] 冯德益,林命周,顾瑾平.地震预报意见的模糊评价[J].地震,1984,4(5) :39-45．
[11] 朱令人,王海涛.新疆地震会商预报的效能分析[J].地震,1986,6(1) :33-41．
[12] 黄世奇.预报方法有效性的判定[J].地震科学研究,1981,3:25-30．
[13] 黄世奇.预报方法优劣的序贯比较[J].华南地震,1983,3(增刊):17-25．
[14] 黄世奇.预报方法效能的模糊综合评价与序贯判定[J].西北地震学报,1985,7(3) :17-22．
[15] 朱令人,朱成熹,洪时中,等.地震预报效能评价的研究[J].内陆地震,1990,4(1) :1-12．
[16] 秦卫平.一维地震预报评分问题[J].地震学报,1991,13(2) :234-242．
[17] 秦卫平,洪时中.一维地震预报评分问题--3×2列联表在地震预报评分中的应用[A].国家地震局监测预报司.地震预报方法实用化研究文集(综合预报专集)[C].北京:地震出版社,1991． 406-412．
[18] 朱成熹,朱令人,郑兴树.地震预报有效性的统计检验和统计效率值研究[A].国家地震局监测预报司.地震预报实用化研究文集(综合预报专集)[C].北京:地震出版社,1991． 389-405．
[19] 黄世奇.预报成败的评定方法[A].国家地震局监测预报司.地震预报方法实用化研究文集(综合预报专集)[C].北京:地震出版社,1991． 413-415．
[20] 朱成熹,郑兴树,朱令人.预报手段效率值的研究[J].地震学报,1992,14(3) :296-303．
[21] M A. [J]. 1983-1984, 3: 69-76．
[22] Lin Mingzhou, Feng Deyi, Jiang Chun, et al. the Evaluation of Effectiveness of Earthquake prediction by use of statistical Fuzzy Method[M]. Fuzzy Mathematics in Earthquake Researches, Seismological Press. Beijing, 1995． 276-285．
② 石耀林,地震预报座谈会上的发言,科技委论坛,1997,3。
③ 国家气象局,重要天气预报质量评定方法(试行),1987。
[1] 董颂声,陆学根.希腊VAN地震预报方法的进展和争论(Ⅰ)[J].国际地震动态,1998(12) :11-17．
[2] 董颂声,陆学根.希腊VAN地震预报方法的进展和争论(Ⅱ)[J].国际地震动态,1999(1) :12-20．
[3] A M. K [J].AHCCP,Cep.1955,4:105-116．
[4] 顾震潮.从信息论看天气预报的评分和使用[J].气象学报,1957,28(4) :1-10．
[5] 陈培善,林邦慧.极值理论在中长期预报中的应用[J].地球物理学报,1973,16(1) :6-24．
[6] 许绍燮.地震预报能力评分[A].国家地震局监测预报司.地震预报方法实用化研究文集地震学专辑[C].北京:学术期刊出版社,1989． 586-590．
[7] 曹聿明.定量研究预报效果的一种方法[J].地震战线,1975,4:32-36．
[8] 天津市地震局地震处,北京市地震队.地下水与地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1976． 164-165．
[9] 洪时中.关于地震预报评分问题的初步讨论[J].地震研究,1981,4(3) :334-345．
[10] 冯德益,林命周,顾瑾平.地震预报意见的模糊评价[J].地震,1984,4(5) :39-45．
[11] 朱令人,王海涛.新疆地震会商预报的效能分析[J].地震,1986,6(1) :33-41．
[12] 黄世奇.预报方法有效性的判定[J].地震科学研究,1981,3:25-30．
[13] 黄世奇.预报方法优劣的序贯比较[J].华南地震,1983,3(增刊):17-25．
[14] 黄世奇.预报方法效能的模糊综合评价与序贯判定[J].西北地震学报,1985,7(3) :17-22．
[15] 朱令人,朱成熹,洪时中,等.地震预报效能评价的研究[J].内陆地震,1990,4(1) :1-12．
[16] 秦卫平.一维地震预报评分问题[J].地震学报,1991,13(2) :234-242．
[17] 秦卫平,洪时中.一维地震预报评分问题--3×2列联表在地震预报评分中的应用[A].国家地震局监测预报司.地震预报方法实用化研究文集(综合预报专集)[C].北京:地震出版社,1991． 406-412．
[18] 朱成熹,朱令人,郑兴树.地震预报有效性的统计检验和统计效率值研究[A].国家地震局监测预报司.地震预报实用化研究文集(综合预报专集)[C].北京:地震出版社,1991． 389-405．
[19] 黄世奇.预报成败的评定方法[A].国家地震局监测预报司.地震预报方法实用化研究文集(综合预报专集)[C].北京:地震出版社,1991． 413-415．
[20] 朱成熹,郑兴树,朱令人.预报手段效率值的研究[J].地震学报,1992,14(3) :296-303．
[21] M A. [J]. 1983-1984, 3: 69-76．
[22] Lin Mingzhou, Feng Deyi, Jiang Chun, et al. the Evaluation of Effectiveness of Earthquake prediction by use of statistical Fuzzy Method[M]. Fuzzy Mathematics in Earthquake Researches, Seismological Press. Beijing, 1995． 276-285．
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