三性法及静中动方法对甘肃岷县漳县M_S6.6地震的趋势性前兆显现的回顾研究
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摘要
针对2013年7月22日甘肃岷县漳县MS6.6地震,本文用三性法、静中动两种方法,对其前兆显现、震前预测过程进行了回顾和分析。回顾表明,在2012年时,对甘肃东南部历史上8级、7级以及6级三个震级档的地震进行三性法分析后,预测在2013-2014年时间段内,天水地区可能有6级地震发生。圈定的地点是在天水为中心150km的范围内。另外,注意到1987年1月8日迭部5.8级地震与"静中动地震"指标所要求与定义的震级和年份相近,因而以此地震作为"准静中动"地震判断地区,与该区域三性法所做的时间预测相配合,预测在1987年1月8日迭部5.8级地震周围大约150km的范围之内,将也会在2012年以及2013、2014年发生一个6至7级的地震。而实际发生的岷县漳县地震震中距离天水123.8km,距离迭部112.1km,即该地震发生在预测的范围内。由于地震预测的复杂性,当用三性法以及静中动指标对全国和甘肃省的地震情况分析后表明,在别的地区还有更为显著的发震指标显现,出于危险区不能划得太多的限制,因而把针对甘肃东南部的预测列为第二个发震可能性的方案之中,遂在2012年只得出研究性的预测结果,没有提出预测意见。甘肃岷县漳县的MS6.6地震实际发生验证,甘肃省首发的强震不是在一个最有可能的静中动指标所指明的地点之中,却在一个"准静中动地震"的地点发生。但该地震对三性法的震后验证表明,其方法还是有前兆性指标显示的。该次地震的发生,表明"准静中动指标"也是值得重视的预测指标。研究表明,三性法相比较常用的中期尺度的预测方法,它能在存在强震背景的情况下,在趋势上指出一个特定的时间段,这是其独特的地方,与多种方法结合后,将会进一步提高强震预测的效能。
The triplet method is an analysis method based on the time frequency of the M > 7.0 earthquakes.A specific approach is used for studying the time series of great earthquakes occurring in the past in a certain region by using a time series composed of periodicity,multiple periodicity,and golden section.If they fit well,we can use it for predicting the time of a future earthquake by the time series."Activity in quiescence" is a method for analyzing the seismic activity on the basis of considering the earthquakes in a low-tide period as a precursory index for predicting the earthquakes in a high-tide period.It calls approximately one decade when no M >7.0earthquakes occurred in the Mainland China intermittent period,then subtracts two years from both ends of the intermittent period to eliminate the influence of the start and the end of the earthquake climax;hence,the rest of the period is called the quiet period.In the places where M6.0earthquakes occurred in the quiet period,the M ≥ 7.0earthquakes may occur when the climax of the next earthquakes is reached. By aiming at the Minxian-Zhangxian MS 6.6 earthquake that occurred on July 22,2013,in this paper,we reviewed and analyzed the apparent precursors and prediction process before the earthquake with the triplet method and "activity in quiescence" method.The results show that, after using the triplet method to analyze historical earthquakes of magnitude 8,magnitude 7and magnitude 6that occurred in the southeastern Gansu,in 2012we predicted that an MS 6earthquake would occur in Tianshui in the 2013-2014period,and the prediction location was within a 150km radius of Tianshui.In addition,because the magnitude and seismogenic year of the Diebu MS 5.8earthquake occurring on January 8,1987were similar to the index of "earthquake of activity in quiescence",we used this earthquake as the index of a "quasi-activity in quiescence", made a time prediction with the triplet method,and then predicted that from 2012to 2014,an MS 6～7earthquake would occur in a 150km radius of the location of the Diebu MS 5.8earthquake. Because of the complexity of earthquake prediction,after analyzing the whole country and Gansu province by using the index of the triplet method and "activity in quiescence" method,we found that there were more significant precursor shows in other regions,so the prediction on the southeastern Gansu was just listed in the second program of earthquake risk.In 2012we only obtained an investigational prediction result,but not put forward a prediction advice. The reality is that the Minxian-Zhangxian MS 6.6 earthquake occurs in the location of a " quasi-activity in quiescence" earthquake;however,this earthquake shows that the triplet method and "activity in quiescence" method still display earthquake precursory indicators,and the "quasiactivity in quiescence" indicators are worthy of attention.Comparing to the commonly used prediction methods for medium-term prediction,the triplet method can point out a specific time period in the background of strong earthquake,which is its obvious feature.If combined with a variety of other methods,the triplet method will further enhance its efficiency of predicting strong earthquakes.
The triplet method is an analysis method based on the time frequency of the M > 7.0 earthquakes.A specific approach is used for studying the time series of great earthquakes occurring in the past in a certain region by using a time series composed of periodicity,multiple periodicity,and golden section.If they fit well,we can use it for predicting the time of a future earthquake by the time series."Activity in quiescence" is a method for analyzing the seismic activity on the basis of considering the earthquakes in a low-tide period as a precursory index for predicting the earthquakes in a high-tide period.It calls approximately one decade when no M >7.0earthquakes occurred in the Mainland China intermittent period,then subtracts two years from both ends of the intermittent period to eliminate the influence of the start and the end of the earthquake climax;hence,the rest of the period is called the quiet period.In the places where M6.0earthquakes occurred in the quiet period,the M ≥ 7.0earthquakes may occur when the climax of the next earthquakes is reached. By aiming at the Minxian-Zhangxian MS 6.6 earthquake that occurred on July 22,2013,in this paper,we reviewed and analyzed the apparent precursors and prediction process before the earthquake with the triplet method and "activity in quiescence" method.The results show that, after using the triplet method to analyze historical earthquakes of magnitude 8,magnitude 7and magnitude 6that occurred in the southeastern Gansu,in 2012we predicted that an MS 6earthquake would occur in Tianshui in the 2013-2014period,and the prediction location was within a 150km radius of Tianshui.In addition,because the magnitude and seismogenic year of the Diebu MS 5.8earthquake occurring on January 8,1987were similar to the index of "earthquake of activity in quiescence",we used this earthquake as the index of a "quasi-activity in quiescence", made a time prediction with the triplet method,and then predicted that from 2012to 2014,an MS 6～7earthquake would occur in a 150km radius of the location of the Diebu MS 5.8earthquake. Because of the complexity of earthquake prediction,after analyzing the whole country and Gansu province by using the index of the triplet method and "activity in quiescence" method,we found that there were more significant precursor shows in other regions,so the prediction on the southeastern Gansu was just listed in the second program of earthquake risk.In 2012we only obtained an investigational prediction result,but not put forward a prediction advice. The reality is that the Minxian-Zhangxian MS 6.6 earthquake occurs in the location of a " quasi-activity in quiescence" earthquake;however,this earthquake shows that the triplet method and "activity in quiescence" method still display earthquake precursory indicators,and the "quasiactivity in quiescence" indicators are worthy of attention.Comparing to the commonly used prediction methods for medium-term prediction,the triplet method can point out a specific time period in the background of strong earthquake,which is its obvious feature.If combined with a variety of other methods,the triplet method will further enhance its efficiency of predicting strong earthquakes.
引文
[1]郭增建,韩延本,吴谨冰.由三性法和静中动判据预测大震[J].地学前缘,2003,10(1):210-211.GUO Zeng-jian,HAN Yan-ben,WU Jin-bing.On Prediction of Strong Earthquakes by means of Three Triplet Method and Criterion of Activity in Quiescence[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2003,10(1):210-211.(in Chinese)
[2]郭增建,韩延本,吴谨冰.从震源物理角度讨论外因对地震的触发机制[J].国际地震动态,2001,20(1):13-15.GUO Zeng-jian,HAN Yan-ben,WU Jin-bing.Discussion on Earthquake Triggering Mechanism by External Factors from the Angle of Earthquake Source Physics[J].Recent Developments In World Seismology,2001,20(1):13-15.(in Chinese)
[3]郭增建,秦保燕,李革平.未来灾害学[M].北京:地震出版社,1992.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan,LI Ge-ping.Science of Future Disaster[M].Beijing:Press of Seismology,1992.(in Chinese)
[4]李鑫.静中动与三性法指标预测大地震的方法系统研究及成因探讨[D].兰州:中国地震局兰州地震研究所,2012.LI Xin.Static Method of Moving Targets in Three of the Earthquake Prediction Research Method and Origin of the System[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou Institutue of Seismology,2012.(in Chinese)
[5]郭安宁,郭增建.二外因合成预测地震[G]∥灾害预测方法集成.北京:气象出版社,2010:191-193.GUO Zeng-jian,GUO An-ning.Prediction of Earthquake by Synthesis of Two External Factors[G]∥Integration of Disaster Prediction Methods.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2010:191-193.(in Chinese)
[6]郭安宁,郭增建.5·12汶川地震预报回顾[M].西安:西安地图出版社,2009.GUO An-ning,GUO Zeng-jian.5·12 Wenchuan Earthquake Prediction Review[M].Xi'an:The Xi'an Map Publishing House,2009.(in Chinese)
[7]郭安宁,郭增建.从震源模式讨论2008年汶川8级地震的回顾性预测[J].西北地震学报,2010,32(1):115-126.GUO An-ning GUO Zeng-jian.A Discussion on the Retrospective Prediction of the MS8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008by Means of Earthquake Source Modles[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2010,32(1):115-126.(in Chinese)
[8]郭增建,陆鸣,李革平,等.青海7级以上大地震发生时间特点的研究[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(1):92-94.GUO Zeng-jian,LU Ming,LI Ge-ping,et al.Study on the Temporal Regularity of Large Earthquake(M≥7)Occurrence in Qinghai Province[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2006,28(1):92-94.(in Chinese)
[9]郭增建,郭安宁.用非传统方法回顾性讨论2008年新疆于田7.3级地震的预[J].西北地震学报,2009,31(1):102.GUO Zeng-jian,GUO An-ning.Reviewing Discussion on the Prediction of Yutian MS7.3Earthquake in Xinjiang on March21,2008,by Nontraditional Prediction Method[J]..Northwestern Seismological Journal,2009,31(1):102.(in Chinese)
[10]郭增建,秦保燕.由“中动判据”对1996年2月3日丽江7级大震的中长期预测[J].地震学报,2002,22(4):442-445.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan.The Mid-long Term Prediction of the February 3,1996Lijiang Earthquake(MS=7)by“Criterion of Activity in Quiescenece”[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2002,22(4):442-445.(in Chinese)
[11]郭增建,郭安宁.华北地区某些地震问题讨论[J].内陆地震,2011,25(4):300-306.GUO Zeng-jian,GUO An-ning.Discussion on Some Problems of Earthquake Activities in North China[J].Inland Earthquake,2011,25(4):300-306.(in Chinese)
[12]郭安宁,郭增建,焦姣,等.青海玉树7.1级大震的预测讨论[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(1):39-43.GUO An-ning,GUO Zeng-jian,JIAO Jiao,et al.Discussion on Prediction of Qinghai Yushu MS7.1 Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(1):39-43.(in Chinese)
[13]郭安宁,李鑫,赵乘程,等.2013年庐山7.0级地震一年尺度预测的回顾性研究[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(2):257-265.GUO An-ning,LI Xin,ZHAO Cheng-cheng,et al.Retrospective Study on One-year Predition for 2013Lushan MS7.0Earthquake[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2013,35(2):257-265.(in Chinese)
[14]董蕾,杨立明.汶川大震前数字地震仪位移地脉动低频异常现象研究[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(3):268-273.Dong Lei,Yang Li-ming.Research on Low-frequency Anomalies of Microtremor Displacement Recorded by Digital Seismigraph before the Wemchuan Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(3):268-273.(in Chinese)
[15]余怀忠,程佳,张小涛,等.多方法联合分析未来地震发生趋势[J].西北地震学报,2012,34:(1),1-9.YU Huai-zhong,CHENG Jia,ZHANG Xiao-tao et al.Mutimethod Linked to Study Future Seismic Tendency[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(1):1-9.(in Chinese)
[16]王双绪,张希,祝意青,等.南北地震带北段强震形变异常特征与预测指标研究[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(2):105-113.WANG Shuang-xu,ZHANG Xi,ZHU Yi-qing et al.Study on the Characteristics of Strong Earthquake Deformation Anomalies and Forecasting Index in the North Segment of the South-north Seismic Belt of China[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(2):105-113.(in Chinese)
[17]焦姣,郭安宁,高思如,等.水库区地震前兆在地震预报中的意义[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(3):294-298.JIAO Jiao,GUO An-ning,GAO Si0-ru,et al.Significance of the Earthquake Precursor in Reservoir Area for Earthquake Predition[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(3):294-298.(in Chinese)
[18]许康生,李秋红,李英.大地震前近台背景噪声的频谱分析[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(2),150-153.XU Kang-sheng,LI Qiu-hong,LI Ying.Analysis on the Spectrum of Background Noise in Station near by Epicenters of Two Great Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(2):150-153.(in Chinese)
[19]李杰,王晓强,王琪,等.2008年于田7.3级地震前西昆仑地形变的GPS初步研究[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(3):256-263.LI Jie,WANG Xiao-qiang,WANG Qi,et al.Crustal Deformation in Western Kunlun Tectonic Zone from GPS Measurements before the Yutian M7.3Earthquake in 2008[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(3):256-263.(in Chinese)
[2]郭增建,韩延本,吴谨冰.从震源物理角度讨论外因对地震的触发机制[J].国际地震动态,2001,20(1):13-15.GUO Zeng-jian,HAN Yan-ben,WU Jin-bing.Discussion on Earthquake Triggering Mechanism by External Factors from the Angle of Earthquake Source Physics[J].Recent Developments In World Seismology,2001,20(1):13-15.(in Chinese)
[3]郭增建,秦保燕,李革平.未来灾害学[M].北京:地震出版社,1992.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan,LI Ge-ping.Science of Future Disaster[M].Beijing:Press of Seismology,1992.(in Chinese)
[4]李鑫.静中动与三性法指标预测大地震的方法系统研究及成因探讨[D].兰州:中国地震局兰州地震研究所,2012.LI Xin.Static Method of Moving Targets in Three of the Earthquake Prediction Research Method and Origin of the System[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou Institutue of Seismology,2012.(in Chinese)
[5]郭安宁,郭增建.二外因合成预测地震[G]∥灾害预测方法集成.北京:气象出版社,2010:191-193.GUO Zeng-jian,GUO An-ning.Prediction of Earthquake by Synthesis of Two External Factors[G]∥Integration of Disaster Prediction Methods.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2010:191-193.(in Chinese)
[6]郭安宁,郭增建.5·12汶川地震预报回顾[M].西安:西安地图出版社,2009.GUO An-ning,GUO Zeng-jian.5·12 Wenchuan Earthquake Prediction Review[M].Xi'an:The Xi'an Map Publishing House,2009.(in Chinese)
[7]郭安宁,郭增建.从震源模式讨论2008年汶川8级地震的回顾性预测[J].西北地震学报,2010,32(1):115-126.GUO An-ning GUO Zeng-jian.A Discussion on the Retrospective Prediction of the MS8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008by Means of Earthquake Source Modles[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2010,32(1):115-126.(in Chinese)
[8]郭增建,陆鸣,李革平,等.青海7级以上大地震发生时间特点的研究[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(1):92-94.GUO Zeng-jian,LU Ming,LI Ge-ping,et al.Study on the Temporal Regularity of Large Earthquake(M≥7)Occurrence in Qinghai Province[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2006,28(1):92-94.(in Chinese)
[9]郭增建,郭安宁.用非传统方法回顾性讨论2008年新疆于田7.3级地震的预[J].西北地震学报,2009,31(1):102.GUO Zeng-jian,GUO An-ning.Reviewing Discussion on the Prediction of Yutian MS7.3Earthquake in Xinjiang on March21,2008,by Nontraditional Prediction Method[J]..Northwestern Seismological Journal,2009,31(1):102.(in Chinese)
[10]郭增建,秦保燕.由“中动判据”对1996年2月3日丽江7级大震的中长期预测[J].地震学报,2002,22(4):442-445.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan.The Mid-long Term Prediction of the February 3,1996Lijiang Earthquake(MS=7)by“Criterion of Activity in Quiescenece”[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2002,22(4):442-445.(in Chinese)
[11]郭增建,郭安宁.华北地区某些地震问题讨论[J].内陆地震,2011,25(4):300-306.GUO Zeng-jian,GUO An-ning.Discussion on Some Problems of Earthquake Activities in North China[J].Inland Earthquake,2011,25(4):300-306.(in Chinese)
[12]郭安宁,郭增建,焦姣,等.青海玉树7.1级大震的预测讨论[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(1):39-43.GUO An-ning,GUO Zeng-jian,JIAO Jiao,et al.Discussion on Prediction of Qinghai Yushu MS7.1 Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(1):39-43.(in Chinese)
[13]郭安宁,李鑫,赵乘程,等.2013年庐山7.0级地震一年尺度预测的回顾性研究[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(2):257-265.GUO An-ning,LI Xin,ZHAO Cheng-cheng,et al.Retrospective Study on One-year Predition for 2013Lushan MS7.0Earthquake[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2013,35(2):257-265.(in Chinese)
[14]董蕾,杨立明.汶川大震前数字地震仪位移地脉动低频异常现象研究[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(3):268-273.Dong Lei,Yang Li-ming.Research on Low-frequency Anomalies of Microtremor Displacement Recorded by Digital Seismigraph before the Wemchuan Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(3):268-273.(in Chinese)
[15]余怀忠,程佳,张小涛,等.多方法联合分析未来地震发生趋势[J].西北地震学报,2012,34:(1),1-9.YU Huai-zhong,CHENG Jia,ZHANG Xiao-tao et al.Mutimethod Linked to Study Future Seismic Tendency[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(1):1-9.(in Chinese)
[16]王双绪,张希,祝意青,等.南北地震带北段强震形变异常特征与预测指标研究[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(2):105-113.WANG Shuang-xu,ZHANG Xi,ZHU Yi-qing et al.Study on the Characteristics of Strong Earthquake Deformation Anomalies and Forecasting Index in the North Segment of the South-north Seismic Belt of China[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(2):105-113.(in Chinese)
[17]焦姣,郭安宁,高思如,等.水库区地震前兆在地震预报中的意义[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(3):294-298.JIAO Jiao,GUO An-ning,GAO Si0-ru,et al.Significance of the Earthquake Precursor in Reservoir Area for Earthquake Predition[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(3):294-298.(in Chinese)
[18]许康生,李秋红,李英.大地震前近台背景噪声的频谱分析[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(2),150-153.XU Kang-sheng,LI Qiu-hong,LI Ying.Analysis on the Spectrum of Background Noise in Station near by Epicenters of Two Great Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(2):150-153.(in Chinese)
[19]李杰,王晓强,王琪,等.2008年于田7.3级地震前西昆仑地形变的GPS初步研究[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(3):256-263.LI Jie,WANG Xiao-qiang,WANG Qi,et al.Crustal Deformation in Western Kunlun Tectonic Zone from GPS Measurements before the Yutian M7.3Earthquake in 2008[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(3):256-263.(in Chinese)
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