台海隧道工程建设的风险分析
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摘要
只就技术风险角度试对台海隧道工程的各类技术风险识别、风险分析与控制以及风险管理等方面的问题进行初步探讨。介绍近年来国内外对长大隧道和重大工程建设项目所已进行的风险分析情况;对采用隧道掘进机(TBM)开挖施工的技术性风险进行分析;分析并提出隧道施工期和运营期的工程安全性研究与评价所应考虑的主要问题;同时对工程风险管理提出了实行社会化的工程保险机制和保险体系及量化、科学化分析评价的要求。经风险识别得出的几种主要技术风险进行分析将有利于估计工程建造费用并掌控工期,进而讨论其诸多不确定性与风险程度,为确定这些重要指标的可信度提供科学依据。
The author tries to make a preliminary study on the technology risk identification,risk analysis and risk control as well as risk management of Taiwan Strait Tunnel from the aspect of technology risk.First,the author presents some risk analysis information on long tunnels and major projects both at home and abroad in recent years,and analyses the technology risks of TBM-constructed tunnels.Then,he analyses and puts forward some issues that need to be considered in project safety study and safety evaluation during tunnel construction and operation.At the same time,the author brings forward the requirements for the application of socialized project insurance system and scientific risk analysis and risk evaluation method in project risk management.The analysis on the several main technology risks gained from risk identification is helpful to the cost estimation and construction schedule control.What is more,the study on the several uncertainties and risk degrees can provide scientific basis for the determination of these main indexes.
The author tries to make a preliminary study on the technology risk identification,risk analysis and risk control as well as risk management of Taiwan Strait Tunnel from the aspect of technology risk.First,the author presents some risk analysis information on long tunnels and major projects both at home and abroad in recent years,and analyses the technology risks of TBM-constructed tunnels.Then,he analyses and puts forward some issues that need to be considered in project safety study and safety evaluation during tunnel construction and operation.At the same time,the author brings forward the requirements for the application of socialized project insurance system and scientific risk analysis and risk evaluation method in project risk management.The analysis on the several main technology risks gained from risk identification is helpful to the cost estimation and construction schedule control.What is more,the study on the several uncertainties and risk degrees can provide scientific basis for the determination of these main indexes.
引文
[1]孙钧.隧道和地铁工程建设的风险整治与管理及其在中国的若干进展[C]//地下工程施工与风险防范技术:2007第三届上海隧道工程研讨会论文集.上海:同济大学出版社,2007:3-20.
[2]徐书林,Piergiorgio GRASSO.大型隧洞工程的风险分析[C]//南水北调西线工程深埋长大隧道关键技术及掘进机应用国际研讨会论文集.北京:国务院南水北调工程建设委员会专家委员会,2005:147-159.
[3]孙钧.对兴建台湾海峡隧道的工程可行性及其若干技术关键的认识[J].隧道建设,2009,29(2):131-144.
[4]莫耀升,王月华,巩南.敞开式TBM在长大输水隧洞中的施工技术[C]//南水北调西线工程深埋长大隧道关键技术及掘进机应用国际研讨会论文集.北京:国务院南水北调工程建设委员会专家委员会,2005:329-355.
[5]魏平,陈新民,刘莉娇.基于整体风险分析法地震荷载作用下隧道的易损性评估[J].隧道建设,2008,28(3):277-280.
[6]孙钧.对浙江省诸永高速公路两座长隧道运营期防火、排烟方案的认识和意见[R].上海:同济大学隧道所,2008.
[7]郭陕云.关于我国海底隧道建设若干工程技术问题的思考[J].隧道建设,2007,27(3):1-3.
[2]徐书林,Piergiorgio GRASSO.大型隧洞工程的风险分析[C]//南水北调西线工程深埋长大隧道关键技术及掘进机应用国际研讨会论文集.北京:国务院南水北调工程建设委员会专家委员会,2005:147-159.
[3]孙钧.对兴建台湾海峡隧道的工程可行性及其若干技术关键的认识[J].隧道建设,2009,29(2):131-144.
[4]莫耀升,王月华,巩南.敞开式TBM在长大输水隧洞中的施工技术[C]//南水北调西线工程深埋长大隧道关键技术及掘进机应用国际研讨会论文集.北京:国务院南水北调工程建设委员会专家委员会,2005:329-355.
[5]魏平,陈新民,刘莉娇.基于整体风险分析法地震荷载作用下隧道的易损性评估[J].隧道建设,2008,28(3):277-280.
[6]孙钧.对浙江省诸永高速公路两座长隧道运营期防火、排烟方案的认识和意见[R].上海:同济大学隧道所,2008.
[7]郭陕云.关于我国海底隧道建设若干工程技术问题的思考[J].隧道建设,2007,27(3):1-3.
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