2013年芦山7.0级地震一年尺度预测的回顾性研究——基于三性法、静中动和垂震底继模式
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摘要
对2013年中期地震预测的研究结果(一年尺度)进行了阐述与分析。该预测综合了三性法判据、静中动判据和垂震底继模式,给出了2013年左右在鲜水河断裂带上发生7级以上大震的可能性很大的结论。重点预测了两个具体发生的区域,预测的区域与2013年4月20日芦山7.0级地震的震源区相差70～80km左右。预测结果震级与时间吻合,但地点上发生了偏离。文中重点回顾研究了基于三性法,静中动、垂震底继方法的预测过程。
The medium-term prediction(one-year scale) is focused on and mainly considered for the master's thesis written by the first author and his student in 2012.Before the earthquake,it predicted that an MS7.0 earthquake would occur in the Xianshuihe seismic belt by means of a triplet method and the regularity of "an earthquake on the bottom follow-up earthquake on the perpendicular fault," and the prediction location was approximately 70~80 km from the accurate circle.In the medium-term(one-year) predictions that aimed at predicting the Yaan MS7.0 earthquake,the predictions should be the closet one.The triplet method,the "activity in quiescence" method,and the regularity of "an earthquake on the bottom follow-up earthquake on the perpendicular fault" are retrospectively researched in this paper,and they are shown to have good prediction efficiency. The triplet method is an analysis method based on the time frequency of the M > 7.0 earthquakes.A specific approach is used for studying the time series of great earthquakes occurring in the past in a certain region by using a time series composed of periodicity,multiple periodicity,and golden section.If they fit well,we can use it for predicting the time of a future earthquake by the time series. "Activity in quiescence" was a method for analyzing the seismic activity on the basis of considering the earthquakes in a low-tide period as a precursory index for predicting the earthquakes in a high-tide period.It calls approximately one decade when no M > 7.0 earthquakes occurred in the Mainland China intermittent period,then subtracts two years from both ends of the intermittent period to eliminate the influence of the start and the end of the earthquake climax;hence,the rest of the period is called the quiet period.In the places where M6.0 earthquakes occurred in the quiet period,the M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes may occur when the climax of the next earthquakes is reached. The regularity of "an earthquake on the bottom follow-up earthquake on a perpendicular fault" is based on the theory that seismogenic faults interact with each other and then affect another seismogenic fault,and thus,an earthquake is caused.It states that the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake in 2008 exhibited a shock-adding effect on the intersecting Xianshuihe fault.
The medium-term prediction(one-year scale) is focused on and mainly considered for the master's thesis written by the first author and his student in 2012.Before the earthquake,it predicted that an MS7.0 earthquake would occur in the Xianshuihe seismic belt by means of a triplet method and the regularity of "an earthquake on the bottom follow-up earthquake on the perpendicular fault," and the prediction location was approximately 70~80 km from the accurate circle.In the medium-term(one-year) predictions that aimed at predicting the Yaan MS7.0 earthquake,the predictions should be the closet one.The triplet method,the "activity in quiescence" method,and the regularity of "an earthquake on the bottom follow-up earthquake on the perpendicular fault" are retrospectively researched in this paper,and they are shown to have good prediction efficiency. The triplet method is an analysis method based on the time frequency of the M > 7.0 earthquakes.A specific approach is used for studying the time series of great earthquakes occurring in the past in a certain region by using a time series composed of periodicity,multiple periodicity,and golden section.If they fit well,we can use it for predicting the time of a future earthquake by the time series. "Activity in quiescence" was a method for analyzing the seismic activity on the basis of considering the earthquakes in a low-tide period as a precursory index for predicting the earthquakes in a high-tide period.It calls approximately one decade when no M > 7.0 earthquakes occurred in the Mainland China intermittent period,then subtracts two years from both ends of the intermittent period to eliminate the influence of the start and the end of the earthquake climax;hence,the rest of the period is called the quiet period.In the places where M6.0 earthquakes occurred in the quiet period,the M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes may occur when the climax of the next earthquakes is reached. The regularity of "an earthquake on the bottom follow-up earthquake on a perpendicular fault" is based on the theory that seismogenic faults interact with each other and then affect another seismogenic fault,and thus,an earthquake is caused.It states that the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake in 2008 exhibited a shock-adding effect on the intersecting Xianshuihe fault.
引文
[1]李鑫.静中动与三性法指标预测大地震的方法系统研究及成因探讨材[D].兰州:中国地震局兰州地震研究所,2012.LI Xin.Static Method of Moving Targets in Three of theEarthquake Prediction Research Method and Origin of the Sys-tem[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou Institutue of Seismology,2012.
[2]郭增建,韩延本,吴谨冰.由三性法和静中动判据预测大震[J].地学前缘,2003,10(1):210-211.GUO Zeng-jian,HAN Yan-ben,WU Jin-bing.On Predictionof Strong Earthquakes by means of Three Triplet Method andCriterion of Activity in Quiescence[J].Earth Science Fron-tiers,2003,10(1):210-211.
[3]郭增建,韩延本,吴谨冰.从震源物理角度讨论外因对地震的触发机制[J].国际地震动态,2001,20(1):13-15.GUO Zeng-jian,HAN Yan-ben,WU Jin-bing.Discussion onEarthquake Triggering Mechanism by External Factors fromthe Angle of Earthquake Source Physics[J].Recent Develop-ments In World Seismology,2001,20(1):13-15.
[4]郭增建,秦保燕,李革平.未来灾害学[M].北京:地震出版社,1992.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan,LI Ge-ping.Science of FutureDisaster[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1992.
[5]郭增建,秦保燕.由“静中动判据”对1996年2月3日丽江7级大震的中长期预测[J].地震学报,2002,22(4):442-445.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan.The Mid-long Term Predictionof the February 3,1996Lijiang Earthquake(MS=7)by"Cri-terion of Activity in Quiescenece[J].Acta Seismologica Sini-ca,2002,22(4):442-445.
[6]郭增建,郭安宁,华北地区某些地震问题讨论[J].内陆地震,2011,25(4),300-306.GUO Zeng-jian,GUO An-ning.Discussion on Some Problemsof Earthquake Activities in North China[J].Inland Earth-quake,2011,25(4),300-306.
[7]郭增建,秦保燕.大震重复性与减震作用[J].西北地震学报,1984,6(4),89-96.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan.Repetition of Strong Earth-quake and Reduction of Seismic Risk[J].Northwestern Seis-mological Journal,1984,6(4):89-96.
[8]GUO An-ning.Discussion on Problem of Earthquake Reduc-tion[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1989,11(2):96-99.
[9]郭安宁,陈家超.中国大震问题[M].北京:地震出版社,2002.GUO An-ning,CHENG Jia-chao.Strong Earthquake Problemof China[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2002.
[10]郭安宁.考虑发震断层相互作用的地震危险性分析讨论[J].西北地震学报,1989,11(增刊):22-28.GUO An-ning.Discussion of Seismic Hazard Analysis Con-sidering Earthquake Fault Interaction[J].Northwestern Seis-mological Journal,1989,11(Supp.):22-28.
[11]郭安宁,郭增建,焦姣.青海玉树7.1级大震的预测讨论[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(1):39-43.GUO An-ning,GUO Zeng-jian,JIAO Jiao.Discussion onPrediction of Qinghai Yushu MS7.1Earthquake[J].North-western Seismological Journal,2012,34(1),39-43.
[12]郭安宁,郭增建.5.12汶川地震预报回顾[M].西安:西安地图出版社,2009.GUO An-ning,GUO Zeng-jian.The 5.12Wenchuan Earth-quake Prediction Review[M].Xi'an:Xi'an Map PublishingHouse,2009.
[13]郭安宁,郭增建.从震源模式讨论2008年汶川8级地震的回顾性预测[J].西北地震学报,2010,32(1):115-126.GUO An-ning,GUO Zeng-jian.A Discussion on the Retro-spective Prediction of the MS8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake in2008by Means of Earthquake Source Models[J].Northwest-ern Seismological Journal,2010,32(1):115-126.
[14]郭增建,陆鸣,李革平,等.青海7级以上大地震发生时间特点的研究[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(1):92-94.GUO Zeng-jian,LU Ming,LI Ge-ping,et al.Study on theTemporal Regularity of Large Earthquake(M≥7)Occur-rence in Qinghai Province[J].Northwestern SeismologicalJournal,2006,28(1):92-94.
[15]郭增建,郭安宁.用非传统方法回顾性讨论2008年新疆于田7.3级地震的预测[J].西北地震学报,2009,31(1):102.GUO Zeng-jian,GUO An-ning.Reviewing Discussion on thePrediction of Yutian MS7.3Earthquake in Xinjiang on March21,2008,by Nontraditional Prediction Method[J].North-western Seismological Journal,2009,31(1):102.
[16]郭安宁,郭增建.二外因合成预测地震[A]∥灾害预测方法集成[G].北京:气象出版社,2010:191-193.GUO Zeng-jian,GUO An-ning[A]∥Integration of DisasterPrediction Methods[G].Beijing:China MeteorologicalPress,2010:191-193.
[17]贾鹏,张希,张晓亮,等.汶川地震前后川滇及其邻区GPS水平运动演化特征[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(3):264-267,273.JIA Peng,ZHANG Xi,ZHANG Xiao-liang,et al.EvolutionFeatures of Crustal Horizontal Movement from GPS Observa-tion in Sichuan-Yunnan Region and Its Adjacent Area beforeand after the Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seis-mological Journal,2012,34(3):264-267,273.
[18]和平,李志雄,陆远忠,等.断层面的有限单元模拟方法综述[J].西北地震学报,2011,33(2):186-194.HE Ping,LI Zhi-xiong,LU Yuan-zhong,et al.Overview ofResearches on Fault Simulation by Finite Element Method[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2011,33(2):186-194.
[19]刘白云,袁道阳,陈继锋,等,玉树MS7.1地震时空破裂过程及与地表破裂带的对应关系[J].西北地震学报2012,34(1):23-29.LIU Bai-yun,YUAN Dao-yang,CHEN Ji-fen,et al.TheCorresponding Relationship between Temporal-apatialProcess and Earthquake Surface Ruptures Zone of Yushu MS7.1 Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(1):23-29.
[20]刘小凤,梅秀苹,冯建刚,等.青藏高原北部地区地震基本活动状态定量评价[J].西北地震学报,2011,33(2):130-136.LIU Xiao-feng,MEI Xiu-ping,FENG Jian-gang,et al.Quantitative Estimating Basic State of Seismicity in NorthernRegion of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Northwestern Seis-mological Journal,2011,33(2):130-136.
[21]王双绪,张希,祝意青,等.南北地震带北段强震形变异常特征与预测指标研究[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(2):105-113.WANG Shuang-xu,ZHANG Xi,ZHU Yi-qing,et al.Studyon the Characteristics of Strong Earthquake Deformation A-nomalies and Forecasting Index in the North Segment of theSouth-north Seismic Belt of China[J].Northwestern Seismo-logical Journal,2012,34(2):105-113.
[22]阮祥,程万正,乔惠珍,等.安宁河—则木河地震带震源参数及应力状态的研究[J].西北地震学报,2011,33(1):46-50.RUAN Xiang,CHENG Wan-zheng,QIAO Hui-zhen,et al.Research on Source Parameters and Stress State in Anninghe-Zemuhe Earthquake Belt[J].Northwestern SeismologicalJournal,2011,33(1):46-50.
[2]郭增建,韩延本,吴谨冰.由三性法和静中动判据预测大震[J].地学前缘,2003,10(1):210-211.GUO Zeng-jian,HAN Yan-ben,WU Jin-bing.On Predictionof Strong Earthquakes by means of Three Triplet Method andCriterion of Activity in Quiescence[J].Earth Science Fron-tiers,2003,10(1):210-211.
[3]郭增建,韩延本,吴谨冰.从震源物理角度讨论外因对地震的触发机制[J].国际地震动态,2001,20(1):13-15.GUO Zeng-jian,HAN Yan-ben,WU Jin-bing.Discussion onEarthquake Triggering Mechanism by External Factors fromthe Angle of Earthquake Source Physics[J].Recent Develop-ments In World Seismology,2001,20(1):13-15.
[4]郭增建,秦保燕,李革平.未来灾害学[M].北京:地震出版社,1992.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan,LI Ge-ping.Science of FutureDisaster[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1992.
[5]郭增建,秦保燕.由“静中动判据”对1996年2月3日丽江7级大震的中长期预测[J].地震学报,2002,22(4):442-445.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan.The Mid-long Term Predictionof the February 3,1996Lijiang Earthquake(MS=7)by"Cri-terion of Activity in Quiescenece[J].Acta Seismologica Sini-ca,2002,22(4):442-445.
[6]郭增建,郭安宁,华北地区某些地震问题讨论[J].内陆地震,2011,25(4),300-306.GUO Zeng-jian,GUO An-ning.Discussion on Some Problemsof Earthquake Activities in North China[J].Inland Earth-quake,2011,25(4),300-306.
[7]郭增建,秦保燕.大震重复性与减震作用[J].西北地震学报,1984,6(4),89-96.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan.Repetition of Strong Earth-quake and Reduction of Seismic Risk[J].Northwestern Seis-mological Journal,1984,6(4):89-96.
[8]GUO An-ning.Discussion on Problem of Earthquake Reduc-tion[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1989,11(2):96-99.
[9]郭安宁,陈家超.中国大震问题[M].北京:地震出版社,2002.GUO An-ning,CHENG Jia-chao.Strong Earthquake Problemof China[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2002.
[10]郭安宁.考虑发震断层相互作用的地震危险性分析讨论[J].西北地震学报,1989,11(增刊):22-28.GUO An-ning.Discussion of Seismic Hazard Analysis Con-sidering Earthquake Fault Interaction[J].Northwestern Seis-mological Journal,1989,11(Supp.):22-28.
[11]郭安宁,郭增建,焦姣.青海玉树7.1级大震的预测讨论[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(1):39-43.GUO An-ning,GUO Zeng-jian,JIAO Jiao.Discussion onPrediction of Qinghai Yushu MS7.1Earthquake[J].North-western Seismological Journal,2012,34(1),39-43.
[12]郭安宁,郭增建.5.12汶川地震预报回顾[M].西安:西安地图出版社,2009.GUO An-ning,GUO Zeng-jian.The 5.12Wenchuan Earth-quake Prediction Review[M].Xi'an:Xi'an Map PublishingHouse,2009.
[13]郭安宁,郭增建.从震源模式讨论2008年汶川8级地震的回顾性预测[J].西北地震学报,2010,32(1):115-126.GUO An-ning,GUO Zeng-jian.A Discussion on the Retro-spective Prediction of the MS8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake in2008by Means of Earthquake Source Models[J].Northwest-ern Seismological Journal,2010,32(1):115-126.
[14]郭增建,陆鸣,李革平,等.青海7级以上大地震发生时间特点的研究[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(1):92-94.GUO Zeng-jian,LU Ming,LI Ge-ping,et al.Study on theTemporal Regularity of Large Earthquake(M≥7)Occur-rence in Qinghai Province[J].Northwestern SeismologicalJournal,2006,28(1):92-94.
[15]郭增建,郭安宁.用非传统方法回顾性讨论2008年新疆于田7.3级地震的预测[J].西北地震学报,2009,31(1):102.GUO Zeng-jian,GUO An-ning.Reviewing Discussion on thePrediction of Yutian MS7.3Earthquake in Xinjiang on March21,2008,by Nontraditional Prediction Method[J].North-western Seismological Journal,2009,31(1):102.
[16]郭安宁,郭增建.二外因合成预测地震[A]∥灾害预测方法集成[G].北京:气象出版社,2010:191-193.GUO Zeng-jian,GUO An-ning[A]∥Integration of DisasterPrediction Methods[G].Beijing:China MeteorologicalPress,2010:191-193.
[17]贾鹏,张希,张晓亮,等.汶川地震前后川滇及其邻区GPS水平运动演化特征[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(3):264-267,273.JIA Peng,ZHANG Xi,ZHANG Xiao-liang,et al.EvolutionFeatures of Crustal Horizontal Movement from GPS Observa-tion in Sichuan-Yunnan Region and Its Adjacent Area beforeand after the Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seis-mological Journal,2012,34(3):264-267,273.
[18]和平,李志雄,陆远忠,等.断层面的有限单元模拟方法综述[J].西北地震学报,2011,33(2):186-194.HE Ping,LI Zhi-xiong,LU Yuan-zhong,et al.Overview ofResearches on Fault Simulation by Finite Element Method[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2011,33(2):186-194.
[19]刘白云,袁道阳,陈继锋,等,玉树MS7.1地震时空破裂过程及与地表破裂带的对应关系[J].西北地震学报2012,34(1):23-29.LIU Bai-yun,YUAN Dao-yang,CHEN Ji-fen,et al.TheCorresponding Relationship between Temporal-apatialProcess and Earthquake Surface Ruptures Zone of Yushu MS7.1 Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(1):23-29.
[20]刘小凤,梅秀苹,冯建刚,等.青藏高原北部地区地震基本活动状态定量评价[J].西北地震学报,2011,33(2):130-136.LIU Xiao-feng,MEI Xiu-ping,FENG Jian-gang,et al.Quantitative Estimating Basic State of Seismicity in NorthernRegion of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Northwestern Seis-mological Journal,2011,33(2):130-136.
[21]王双绪,张希,祝意青,等.南北地震带北段强震形变异常特征与预测指标研究[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(2):105-113.WANG Shuang-xu,ZHANG Xi,ZHU Yi-qing,et al.Studyon the Characteristics of Strong Earthquake Deformation A-nomalies and Forecasting Index in the North Segment of theSouth-north Seismic Belt of China[J].Northwestern Seismo-logical Journal,2012,34(2):105-113.
[22]阮祥,程万正,乔惠珍,等.安宁河—则木河地震带震源参数及应力状态的研究[J].西北地震学报,2011,33(1):46-50.RUAN Xiang,CHENG Wan-zheng,QIAO Hui-zhen,et al.Research on Source Parameters and Stress State in Anninghe-Zemuhe Earthquake Belt[J].Northwestern SeismologicalJournal,2011,33(1):46-50.
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