基于突变级数法的边坡地震稳定性综合评价
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摘要
基于突变级数理论,对边坡地震的稳定性提出了一种综合评价方法。首先对边坡地震稳定性的评价目标进行多层次矛盾分解,并对数据归一化处理,利用突变理论与模糊数学相结合产生突变模糊隶属函数,由归一公式进行综合量化运算,得到总的隶属函数,从而进行边坡地震稳定性的分析评价。对16个典型的地震边坡作为预测样本进行了评价研究,并将得到的预测结果与灰色聚类法、综合指标法预测结果以及与边坡的实际震害程度进行比较。研究结果表明,突变级数法成功率高、客观性强,为边坡地震稳定性的研究提供了一条新思路。
Based on catastrophe progression theory,an integrative evaluation technique was presented to predict the seismic stability of slope in this paper.The complex index system of the seismic stability of slope was decomposed by a multi-level objective method.Then according to the normalization formula and the fuzzy subject function which was produced by the combination of catastrophe theory and fuzzy math,a recursive calculation was carried out to get a catastrophic affiliated functional value,which can be used to evaluate the seismic stability of slope.16 actual samples were used to verify the effectiveness of this technique.Compared with grey clustering method and comprehensive index method,the results from this technique show that catastrophe progression method has a practical value in evaluating the stability of slope during earthquake.This paper provides a new way for evaluation on seismic stability of slopes.
Based on catastrophe progression theory,an integrative evaluation technique was presented to predict the seismic stability of slope in this paper.The complex index system of the seismic stability of slope was decomposed by a multi-level objective method.Then according to the normalization formula and the fuzzy subject function which was produced by the combination of catastrophe theory and fuzzy math,a recursive calculation was carried out to get a catastrophic affiliated functional value,which can be used to evaluate the seismic stability of slope.16 actual samples were used to verify the effectiveness of this technique.Compared with grey clustering method and comprehensive index method,the results from this technique show that catastrophe progression method has a practical value in evaluating the stability of slope during earthquake.This paper provides a new way for evaluation on seismic stability of slopes.
引文
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[9]孙进忠,陈祥,王余庆,等.岩土边坡地震崩滑的三级评判预测[J].地震研究,2004,27(3):256-263.(SUN Jin-zhong,CHEN Xiang,WANG Yu-qing,et al.The estimation and prediction of the slide and collapse ofsoil and rock slope triggered by earthquakes with threesteps[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2004,27(3):256-263.(in Chinese))
[10]王余庆,高艳平,辛鸿博.用灰色聚类方法预测边坡地震稳定性研究[J].工业建筑,2002,32(6):44-47.(WANG Yu-qing,GAO Yan-ping,XIN Hong-bo.A reseach on prediction of seismic stability of slopes bygrey clustering method[J].Industrial Construction,2002,32(6):44-47.(in Chinese))
[11]高艳平,王余庆,辛鸿博.预测边坡地震稳定性的灰色关联计算实用方法[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(增1):4 947-4 950.(GAO Yan-ping,WANG Yu-qing,XIN Hong-bo.Practical methods ofpredicting the slope seismic stability with grey correla-tion method[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanicsand Engineering,2005,24(S1):4 947-4 950.(inChinese))
[12]黄奕龙.突变级数法在水资源持续利用评价中的应用[J].干旱环境监测,2001,15(3):167-170.(HUANG Yi-long.Application of catastrophe progres-sion method to evaluation of sustainable usage of waterresource[J].Arid Environmental Monitoring,2001,15(3):167-170.(in Chinese))
[13]陈云峰,孙殿义,陆根法.突变级数法在生态适宜度评价中的应用——以镇江新区为例[J].生态学报,2006,26(8):2 587-2 593.(CHEN Yun-feng,SUNDian-yi,LU Gen-fa.Application of catastrophe pro-gression method in ecological suitability assessment:Acase study on Zhenjiang new area[J].Acta EcologicaSinica,2006,26(8):2587-2593.(in Chinese))
[14]朱顺泉.基于突变级数法的上市公司绩效综合评价研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2002,20(2):90-94.(ZHUShun-quan.Study on catastrophe theory andapplication of credit evaluation of listed corporation[J].Systems Engineering theory and Practice,2002,20(2):90-94.(in Chinese))
[15]朱顺泉,徐国祥.上市公司财务状况的突变级数评价模型及其实证研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2003,18(3):11-14.(ZHU Shun-quan,XU Guo-xiang.Catastrophe progression evaluation model and researchof financial condition of listed companies[J].Statis-tics and Information Tribune,2003,18(3):11-14.(in Chinese))
[16]蒋军成.突变理论及其在安全工程中的应用[J].南京化工大学学报,1999,21(1):24-28.(JIANG Jun-cheng.Catastrophe theory and its application in thesafety engineering[J].Journal of Nanjing Universityof Chemical Technology,1999,1(1):24-28.(inChinese))
[17]丁彦慧.中国西部地区地震滑坡预测方法研究[M].北京:中国地质大学,1997.(DING Yan-hui.The study on prediction and forecast of landslide trig-gered by earthquake in western china[M].Beijing:China University of Geosciences,1997.(in Chinese))
[2]陈晓利,叶洪,程菊红.GIS技术在区域地震滑坡危险性预测中的应用龙陵地震滑坡为例[J].工程地质学报,2006,14(3):333-338.(CHEN Xiao-li,YEHong,CHENG Ju-hong.Use of GIS in regional risk as-sessment of earthquake induced landslides—A casestudy of earthquake induced landslides in Longling in1976[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2006,14(3):333-338.(in Chinese))
[3]李树德,任秀生,岳升阳,等.地震滑坡研究[J].水土保持研究,2001,8(2):24-25.(LI Shu-de,RENXiu-sheng,YUE Sheng-yang,et al.Study of earth-quake—landslide[J].Research of Soil and Water Con-servation,2001,8(2):24-25.(in Chinese))
[4]刘百篪,张俊玲,吴建华,等.1920年12月16日海原8.5级大地震的伤亡人口再评估[J].中国地震,2003,19(4):386-399.(LIU Bai-chi,ZHANG Jun-ling,WUJian-hua,et al.Reevaluating on casualty in theHaiyuan MS815 earthquake on december 16,1920[J].Earthquake Research in China,2003,19(4):386-399.(in Chinese))
[5]刘春玲,祁生文,童立强,等.利用FLAC3D分析某边坡地震稳定性[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(16):2 730-2 733.(LIU Chun-ling,QI Sheng-wen,TONG Li-qiang,et al.Stability analysis of slope underearthquake with FLAC3D[J].Chinese Journal of RockMechanics and Engineering,2004,23(16):2 730-2733.(in Chinese))
[6]吴兆营,薄景山,刘红帅,等.岩体边坡地震稳定性动安全系数分析方法[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2004,24(3):237-241.(WU Zhao-ying,BAO Jing-shan,LIUHong-shuai,et al.A method for evaluating dynamicsafety factor rock slope seismic stability analysis[J].Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineer-ing,2004,24(3):237-241.(in Chinese))
[7]辛鸿博,王余庆.岩土边坡地震崩滑及其初判准则[J].岩土工程学报,1999,21(5):591-594.(XINHong-bo,WANG Yu-qing.Earthquake induced land-slide and avalanche[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechni-cal Engineering,1999,21(5):591-594.(in Chi-nese))
[8]王余庆,辛鸿博,高艳平.预测岩土边坡地震崩滑的综合指标法研究[J].岩土工程学报,2001,23(3):311-314.(WANG Yu-qing,XIN Hong-bo,GAO Yan-ping.Study on comprehensive index method for predic-ting earthquake induced landslide[J].Chinese Journalof Geotechnical Engineering,2001,23(3):311-314.(in Chinese))
[9]孙进忠,陈祥,王余庆,等.岩土边坡地震崩滑的三级评判预测[J].地震研究,2004,27(3):256-263.(SUN Jin-zhong,CHEN Xiang,WANG Yu-qing,et al.The estimation and prediction of the slide and collapse ofsoil and rock slope triggered by earthquakes with threesteps[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2004,27(3):256-263.(in Chinese))
[10]王余庆,高艳平,辛鸿博.用灰色聚类方法预测边坡地震稳定性研究[J].工业建筑,2002,32(6):44-47.(WANG Yu-qing,GAO Yan-ping,XIN Hong-bo.A reseach on prediction of seismic stability of slopes bygrey clustering method[J].Industrial Construction,2002,32(6):44-47.(in Chinese))
[11]高艳平,王余庆,辛鸿博.预测边坡地震稳定性的灰色关联计算实用方法[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(增1):4 947-4 950.(GAO Yan-ping,WANG Yu-qing,XIN Hong-bo.Practical methods ofpredicting the slope seismic stability with grey correla-tion method[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanicsand Engineering,2005,24(S1):4 947-4 950.(inChinese))
[12]黄奕龙.突变级数法在水资源持续利用评价中的应用[J].干旱环境监测,2001,15(3):167-170.(HUANG Yi-long.Application of catastrophe progres-sion method to evaluation of sustainable usage of waterresource[J].Arid Environmental Monitoring,2001,15(3):167-170.(in Chinese))
[13]陈云峰,孙殿义,陆根法.突变级数法在生态适宜度评价中的应用——以镇江新区为例[J].生态学报,2006,26(8):2 587-2 593.(CHEN Yun-feng,SUNDian-yi,LU Gen-fa.Application of catastrophe pro-gression method in ecological suitability assessment:Acase study on Zhenjiang new area[J].Acta EcologicaSinica,2006,26(8):2587-2593.(in Chinese))
[14]朱顺泉.基于突变级数法的上市公司绩效综合评价研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2002,20(2):90-94.(ZHUShun-quan.Study on catastrophe theory andapplication of credit evaluation of listed corporation[J].Systems Engineering theory and Practice,2002,20(2):90-94.(in Chinese))
[15]朱顺泉,徐国祥.上市公司财务状况的突变级数评价模型及其实证研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2003,18(3):11-14.(ZHU Shun-quan,XU Guo-xiang.Catastrophe progression evaluation model and researchof financial condition of listed companies[J].Statis-tics and Information Tribune,2003,18(3):11-14.(in Chinese))
[16]蒋军成.突变理论及其在安全工程中的应用[J].南京化工大学学报,1999,21(1):24-28.(JIANG Jun-cheng.Catastrophe theory and its application in thesafety engineering[J].Journal of Nanjing Universityof Chemical Technology,1999,1(1):24-28.(inChinese))
[17]丁彦慧.中国西部地区地震滑坡预测方法研究[M].北京:中国地质大学,1997.(DING Yan-hui.The study on prediction and forecast of landslide trig-gered by earthquake in western china[M].Beijing:China University of Geosciences,1997.(in Chinese))
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