现今地壳运动动力学基本状态与地震可预报性研究
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摘要
应用复杂动力学系统自组织理论,综合研究了近40年现代大地测量学(地震地形变及GPS)对现今地壳运动的观测结果。在"不动点吸引子"、"极限环吸引子"、"环面吸引子"和"奇异吸引子"的作用下,现今地壳运动呈现出"稳定态(动平衡态)"、"周期态"、"拟周期态"、"混沌态"和"混沌边缘态"等多种动力学状态。观测结果表明,无论板块、块体、边界带、断裂带,还是速度场、应力场都呈现出数年至数十年尺度的地壳运动与百万年尺度的新构造运动整体一致。在地震等暂态过程发生后,现今地壳运动(时变过程、空间分布、频谱结构)仍将自动回归到"稳定态(动平衡态)"。观测结果证明确实存在"不动点吸引子",故而能使地壳运动系统长期保持在"稳定态(动平衡态)",即"自组织稳定态"。"自组织临界态"(SOC)是一种弱混沌性质的"混沌边缘态"(非稳定定态),只出现于地壳运动自组织过程特定阶段中的特定时空域。
Applying self-organized theory of complex dynamics system,we have synthetically studied the observational results of present-day crustal movement from contemporary geodesy(GPS and earthquake crustal deformation)in recent 40 years.Because of "fixed point attractor","limit cycle attractor","tons attractor" and "strange attractor" dominating the dynamics system,present-day crustal movement presents the various dynamics states such as "stable state(dynamic balancing state)","period state","quasi-period state","chaos state" and "edge of chaos".The observation results show that not only plate,block,boundary zone,fault zone but also speed field,stress field all over present the accordance of present-day crustal movement in several years or tens scales with those in neotectonics of million year scales as a whole.After transient state process(earthquake,etc)having occurred,present-day crustal movement(the changing process with time,the space distribution and the structure of spectrum)will return to "stable steady state(dynamic balancing state)" voluntarily.The observation results prove that the"fixed point attractor " exists really and it keeps the crustal movement system at "stable steady state"(dynamic balancing state),"self-organized stability".But Self-organized criticality(SOC)is a kind of weak chaos nature:"edge of chaos"(non-stable steady state),appearing only in the specific space-time region in specific stage at self organization process of crustal movement.
Applying self-organized theory of complex dynamics system,we have synthetically studied the observational results of present-day crustal movement from contemporary geodesy(GPS and earthquake crustal deformation)in recent 40 years.Because of "fixed point attractor","limit cycle attractor","tons attractor" and "strange attractor" dominating the dynamics system,present-day crustal movement presents the various dynamics states such as "stable state(dynamic balancing state)","period state","quasi-period state","chaos state" and "edge of chaos".The observation results show that not only plate,block,boundary zone,fault zone but also speed field,stress field all over present the accordance of present-day crustal movement in several years or tens scales with those in neotectonics of million year scales as a whole.After transient state process(earthquake,etc)having occurred,present-day crustal movement(the changing process with time,the space distribution and the structure of spectrum)will return to "stable steady state(dynamic balancing state)" voluntarily.The observation results prove that the"fixed point attractor " exists really and it keeps the crustal movement system at "stable steady state"(dynamic balancing state),"self-organized stability".But Self-organized criticality(SOC)is a kind of weak chaos nature:"edge of chaos"(non-stable steady state),appearing only in the specific space-time region in specific stage at self organization process of crustal movement.
引文
[1]中华人民共和国国务院.国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要(2006-2020).2006.
1Bak P,Tang C and Wiesenfeld K.Self-organized criticality[J].Phys.Rev,1988,A38:364-374.
2周硕愚.蕴震系统自组织与前兆场整体演化[A].地震科学联合基金会编.地震科学整体观研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1993.2Zhou Shuoyu.Self-organization of seismogenic system and e-volution of precursory field on the whole[A].Seismic sci-ence joint foundation(Eds).Research of wholeness view on seismic science[C].Beijing:Seismological Press.1993.(in Chanese)
3周硕愚.走向21世纪的地壳形变学——对大陆动力学与地震预报的新推动[J].地壳形变与地震,1999,19(1):1～13.3Zhou Shuoyu.Crustal deformation advancing towards21th century:A new impetus to continental dynamics and earth-quake prediction[J].Crustal Deformation and Earthquake,1999,19(1):1-13.(in Chanese)
4吴忠良.自组织临界性与地震预测——对目前地震预测问题争论的评述(之一)[J].中国地震,1998,14(4):1～19.4Wu Zhongliang.Self-organized criticality and earthquake pre-diction:A review0n the current discussions about earthquake prediction(1)[J].Earthquake Research in China,1998,14(4):1-19.(in Chanese)
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6吴云.前兆异常区地震危险性概率的评估方法[J].地壳形变与地震,1999,19(4):1～7.6Wu Yun.A method for assessing earthquake risk probability in a precursory anomalous area[J].Crustal Deformation and Earthquake,1999,19(4):1-7.(in Chanese)
7王琪,等.跨喜马拉雅的GPS观测与地壳形变[J].地壳形变与地震,1998,18(3):43～50.7Wang Qi,et al.GPS measurement and current crustal move-ment across the Himalaya[J].Crustal Deformation and Earthquake,1998,18(3):43-50.(in Chanese)
8周硕愚,等.GPS对地震预报的推进和问题研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(3):111～117.8Zhou Shuoyu,et al.On propulsion for earthquake prediction by GPS and problems[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geody-namics,2006,26(3):111-117.(in Chanese)
9周硕愚,等.形变大地测量学的进展、问题与地震预报[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2004,24(4):95～101.9Zhou Shuoyu,et al.Advances and problems of deformation geodesy and earthquake prediction[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2004,24(4):95-101.(in Chanese)
10周硕愚,等.地壳形变测量学之进展与展望[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2002,22(3):94～101.10Zhou Shuoyu,et al.Advamce and prospect of crustal de-formation geodesy[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynam-ics,2002,22(3):94-101.(in Chanese)
11许国志,顾基发,车宏安主编.系统科学[M].上海:上海科技出版社,2003.11Xu Guozhi,Gu Jifa,Che Hongan(Eds).System science[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Scientific and Technical Press,2003.(in Chanese)
12Jackson E A.Perspectives of nonlinear dynamics[M].Cam-bridge University Prees,1989.
13周硕愚.系统科学导引[M].北京:地震出版社,1988.13Zhou Shuoyu.Introduction of system science[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1988.(in Chanese)
14Keilis Borok V I and Soloviev A A(Eds).Nonlinear dy-namics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction[M].Springer,2003.
15赖锡安,黄立人,徐菊生,等编著.中国大陆现今地壳运动[M].北京:地震出版社,2004.15Lai Xian,Huang Liren,Xu Jusheng,et al.Present-day crus-tal motion at continent of China[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2004.(in Chanese)
16周硕愚,张跃刚,丁国瑜,等.依据GPS数据建立中国大陆板内块体现时运动模型的初步研究[J].地震学报,1998,20(4):347～355.16Zhou shuoyu,Zhang yuegang,Ding guoyu,et al.A prelimi-nary research establishing the present-time intraplate blocks movement model the Chinese mainland based on GPS data[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1998,11(4):403-412.
17Wang Q,Zhang P Z,Freymueller J T,et al.Present-day crustal deformation in China constrained by global positio-ning system measurements[J].Science,2001,294:574-577.
18丁国瑜主编.中国岩石圈动力学概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1991.18Ding Guoyu.Introduction of lithosphere dynamics of China[M].Beijing:Seismological Press.1991.(in Chanese)
19周硕愚.利用地面观测资料研究活动断裂带的运动学与动力学[A].赖锡安,黄立人,徐菊生等编著.中国大陆现今地壳运动[C].北京:地震出版社,2004.19Shou Shuoyu.Study of kinematics and dynamics on active fault zone used ground observation data[A].Lai Xian,Huang Liren,Xu Jusheng,et al.Present-day crustal motion at continent of China[C].Beijing:Seismological Press,2004.(in Chanese)
20周硕愚,吴云,施顺英,等.中国大陆东南边缘海现时地壳运动与地震动力学综合研究[J].地壳形变与地震,2001,21(1):1～15.20Zhou Shuoyu,Wu Yun,Shi Shunying,et al.Integrated re-search on current movement and earthquake dynamics in marginal sea southeast of China continent[J].Crustal De-formation and Earthquake,21(1):1-14.(in Chanese)
21周硕愚,施顺英,吴云,等.强震前后地壳形变场动力学图象及其参量特征研究[J].地震学报,1998,20(1):41～47.21Zhou Shuoyu,Shi Shunying,Wu Yun,et al.Reserch on dy-namics patterns and parameter characters of crustal deform-ation field before and after strong earthquake[J].Acta Seis-mologica Sinica,1998,11(1):49-57.
22Takuya Nishimura,Satoshi Miura,Kenji Tachibana,et al.Distribution of seismic coupling on subducting plate bound-ary in northeastern Japan inferred from GPS Observation[J].Tectonophysics,2000,323:217-238.
23周昕,钟羽云,傅建武,等.珊溪水库地震与构造地震波谱时-频特征的对比研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(4):86～91.23Zhou Xin,Zhong Yuyun,Fu Jianwu,et al.Contrast of time-frequency characteristics of wave spectrum between Shanxi reservoir induced earthquake and tectonic earthquake earth-quake[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2006,26(4):86-91.(in Chanese)
1Bak P,Tang C and Wiesenfeld K.Self-organized criticality[J].Phys.Rev,1988,A38:364-374.
2周硕愚.蕴震系统自组织与前兆场整体演化[A].地震科学联合基金会编.地震科学整体观研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1993.2Zhou Shuoyu.Self-organization of seismogenic system and e-volution of precursory field on the whole[A].Seismic sci-ence joint foundation(Eds).Research of wholeness view on seismic science[C].Beijing:Seismological Press.1993.(in Chanese)
3周硕愚.走向21世纪的地壳形变学——对大陆动力学与地震预报的新推动[J].地壳形变与地震,1999,19(1):1～13.3Zhou Shuoyu.Crustal deformation advancing towards21th century:A new impetus to continental dynamics and earth-quake prediction[J].Crustal Deformation and Earthquake,1999,19(1):1-13.(in Chanese)
4吴忠良.自组织临界性与地震预测——对目前地震预测问题争论的评述(之一)[J].中国地震,1998,14(4):1～19.4Wu Zhongliang.Self-organized criticality and earthquake pre-diction:A review0n the current discussions about earthquake prediction(1)[J].Earthquake Research in China,1998,14(4):1-19.(in Chanese)
5Sykes L R,Shaw B E and Scholz C H.Rethinking earth-quake prediction[J].Pure Appl.Geophys,1999,155:207-232.
6吴云.前兆异常区地震危险性概率的评估方法[J].地壳形变与地震,1999,19(4):1～7.6Wu Yun.A method for assessing earthquake risk probability in a precursory anomalous area[J].Crustal Deformation and Earthquake,1999,19(4):1-7.(in Chanese)
7王琪,等.跨喜马拉雅的GPS观测与地壳形变[J].地壳形变与地震,1998,18(3):43～50.7Wang Qi,et al.GPS measurement and current crustal move-ment across the Himalaya[J].Crustal Deformation and Earthquake,1998,18(3):43-50.(in Chanese)
8周硕愚,等.GPS对地震预报的推进和问题研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(3):111～117.8Zhou Shuoyu,et al.On propulsion for earthquake prediction by GPS and problems[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geody-namics,2006,26(3):111-117.(in Chanese)
9周硕愚,等.形变大地测量学的进展、问题与地震预报[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2004,24(4):95～101.9Zhou Shuoyu,et al.Advances and problems of deformation geodesy and earthquake prediction[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2004,24(4):95-101.(in Chanese)
10周硕愚,等.地壳形变测量学之进展与展望[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2002,22(3):94～101.10Zhou Shuoyu,et al.Advamce and prospect of crustal de-formation geodesy[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynam-ics,2002,22(3):94-101.(in Chanese)
11许国志,顾基发,车宏安主编.系统科学[M].上海:上海科技出版社,2003.11Xu Guozhi,Gu Jifa,Che Hongan(Eds).System science[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Scientific and Technical Press,2003.(in Chanese)
12Jackson E A.Perspectives of nonlinear dynamics[M].Cam-bridge University Prees,1989.
13周硕愚.系统科学导引[M].北京:地震出版社,1988.13Zhou Shuoyu.Introduction of system science[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1988.(in Chanese)
14Keilis Borok V I and Soloviev A A(Eds).Nonlinear dy-namics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction[M].Springer,2003.
15赖锡安,黄立人,徐菊生,等编著.中国大陆现今地壳运动[M].北京:地震出版社,2004.15Lai Xian,Huang Liren,Xu Jusheng,et al.Present-day crus-tal motion at continent of China[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2004.(in Chanese)
16周硕愚,张跃刚,丁国瑜,等.依据GPS数据建立中国大陆板内块体现时运动模型的初步研究[J].地震学报,1998,20(4):347～355.16Zhou shuoyu,Zhang yuegang,Ding guoyu,et al.A prelimi-nary research establishing the present-time intraplate blocks movement model the Chinese mainland based on GPS data[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1998,11(4):403-412.
17Wang Q,Zhang P Z,Freymueller J T,et al.Present-day crustal deformation in China constrained by global positio-ning system measurements[J].Science,2001,294:574-577.
18丁国瑜主编.中国岩石圈动力学概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1991.18Ding Guoyu.Introduction of lithosphere dynamics of China[M].Beijing:Seismological Press.1991.(in Chanese)
19周硕愚.利用地面观测资料研究活动断裂带的运动学与动力学[A].赖锡安,黄立人,徐菊生等编著.中国大陆现今地壳运动[C].北京:地震出版社,2004.19Shou Shuoyu.Study of kinematics and dynamics on active fault zone used ground observation data[A].Lai Xian,Huang Liren,Xu Jusheng,et al.Present-day crustal motion at continent of China[C].Beijing:Seismological Press,2004.(in Chanese)
20周硕愚,吴云,施顺英,等.中国大陆东南边缘海现时地壳运动与地震动力学综合研究[J].地壳形变与地震,2001,21(1):1～15.20Zhou Shuoyu,Wu Yun,Shi Shunying,et al.Integrated re-search on current movement and earthquake dynamics in marginal sea southeast of China continent[J].Crustal De-formation and Earthquake,21(1):1-14.(in Chanese)
21周硕愚,施顺英,吴云,等.强震前后地壳形变场动力学图象及其参量特征研究[J].地震学报,1998,20(1):41～47.21Zhou Shuoyu,Shi Shunying,Wu Yun,et al.Reserch on dy-namics patterns and parameter characters of crustal deform-ation field before and after strong earthquake[J].Acta Seis-mologica Sinica,1998,11(1):49-57.
22Takuya Nishimura,Satoshi Miura,Kenji Tachibana,et al.Distribution of seismic coupling on subducting plate bound-ary in northeastern Japan inferred from GPS Observation[J].Tectonophysics,2000,323:217-238.
23周昕,钟羽云,傅建武,等.珊溪水库地震与构造地震波谱时-频特征的对比研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(4):86～91.23Zhou Xin,Zhong Yuyun,Fu Jianwu,et al.Contrast of time-frequency characteristics of wave spectrum between Shanxi reservoir induced earthquake and tectonic earthquake earth-quake[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2006,26(4):86-91.(in Chanese)
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