汶川地震灾区泥石流危险性评估——以都江堰—汶川公路为例
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摘要
公路泥石流危险性评估是震区道路交通防灾减灾和重建规划的重要基础性技术工作之一。选取都江堰—汶川公路沿线28条泥石流沟为研究对象,运用遥感和GIS技术进行数据处理与综合分析,采用灰色关联分析法进行评价因子遴选和权重确定,进行各条泥石流沟危险度计算,完成震区都江堰—汶川公路沿线泥石流危险性评估。结果表明:1)都江堰—汶川公路沿线28条泥石流沟大部分处于高度危险以上、占总数的78.57%,极高危险区占总数的25%;2)饵沟、牛圈沟、磨子沟危险性最大,其次是高店子沟、马埝坪沟和一碗水沟;3)基于灰色关联分析法的多因素评价方法,能较好地确定评价因子及其权重、并计算出泥石流危险度,具有一定实用性。研究结果可为灾区防灾减灾管理、灾后恢复重建和道路交通选线设计提供必要的依据和参考。
Hazard assessment of debris flows along highway is an important technological foundation for preventing & mitigating traffic geo-hazards and for reconstructing & planning destroyed traffic infrastructure by earthquake.In this paper,28 debris flow gullies along Dujiangyan-Wenchuan Highway(abbreviated to Du-Wen Highway) were taken as research objects.Corresponding geographical information and thematic hazards data were collected,and they were processed and analyzed through remote sensing,GIS technology.Assessment factors were selected and respective weights were determined by means of grey correlation analysis method.Meanwhile,a hazard assessment model of debris flow was established and applied to assess the hazard of 28 debris flow gullies along Du-Wen Highway.The findings show that: a) most of 28 debris flow gullies belong to high & severely high risk zones with 15 high risk gullies and 7 severely high risk gullies,that is,78.57% of total gullies;b)The highest risk gullies are Ergou,Niujuangou & Mozigou,next came Gaodianzigou,Manianpingou & Yiwanshuigou gullies;c) The multi-factor assessment method based on gray-correlation can fairly well select assessment factors,determine corresponding weights and calculate the value of hazard degree of each debris flow gully.The results can provide basis & reference for preventing & mitigating debris flows,reconstructing & planning stricken areas and selecting & designing traffic lines.
Hazard assessment of debris flows along highway is an important technological foundation for preventing & mitigating traffic geo-hazards and for reconstructing & planning destroyed traffic infrastructure by earthquake.In this paper,28 debris flow gullies along Dujiangyan-Wenchuan Highway(abbreviated to Du-Wen Highway) were taken as research objects.Corresponding geographical information and thematic hazards data were collected,and they were processed and analyzed through remote sensing,GIS technology.Assessment factors were selected and respective weights were determined by means of grey correlation analysis method.Meanwhile,a hazard assessment model of debris flow was established and applied to assess the hazard of 28 debris flow gullies along Du-Wen Highway.The findings show that: a) most of 28 debris flow gullies belong to high & severely high risk zones with 15 high risk gullies and 7 severely high risk gullies,that is,78.57% of total gullies;b)The highest risk gullies are Ergou,Niujuangou & Mozigou,next came Gaodianzigou,Manianpingou & Yiwanshuigou gullies;c) The multi-factor assessment method based on gray-correlation can fairly well select assessment factors,determine corresponding weights and calculate the value of hazard degree of each debris flow gully.The results can provide basis & reference for preventing & mitigating debris flows,reconstructing & planning stricken areas and selecting & designing traffic lines.
引文
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[2]Gao K C.Probability forecast of regional landslide basedon numerical weather forecast[J].Wuhan UniversityJournal of Natural Sciences,2006,11(4):853-858
[3]久保田哲也,正务章,板垣昭彦.流域の任意地点における短时间降雨预测手法と土石流发生危险度判定图の开发[J].新砂防,1990,42(6):11-17
[4]谭炳炎.泥石流沟严重程度的数量化综合评判[J].水土保持通报,1986,6(1):51-57
[5]刘希林,张松林,唐川,等.沟谷泥石流危险度评价研究[J].水土保持学报,1993,7(3):20-25
[6]朱静,唐川.云南省泥石流灾害危险度分区研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1996,7(2):86-93
[7]韩用顺,崔鹏,朱颖彦,等.汶川地震危害道路交通及其遥感监测评估:以都汶公路为例[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2009,41(3):273-283
[8]庄建琦,崔鹏,葛永刚,等.“5.12”地震后都汶公路沿线泥石流沟危险性评价[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2009,41(3):131-139
[9]邓聚龙.灰色系统基本方法[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1987:73-81
[10]魏永明,谢又予,伍永秋.关联度分析法和模糊综合评判法在泥石流沟谷危险度划分中的应用:以北京市北部山区怀柔、密云两县为例[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(2):109-117
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