山西断陷带太原—临汾部分的强地震平均复发间隔与未来危险段落研究
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摘要
130 3年山西洪洞M8大地震距今已 70 0年 .为了分析长期地震危险性 ,本文将山西断陷带太原—临汾部分划分为 5个震源段 ,根据历史地震和GPS观测资料 ,估算出各段的平均地震矩率与强地震平均复发间隔 ,进而根据最近 30多年的台网地震资料计算获得的b值图象 ,分析不同段落现今应力积累的相对水平 .主要结果表明 :临汾盆地段的平均地震矩率为2 .2 1× 10 16 ～ 3.0 3× 10 16 N·m/a ,M7.5地震的平均复发间隔估值为 15 6 0～ 2 14 0a .灵石—洪洞段M8地震的平均复发间隔估值在 4 30 0～ 5 10 0a之间 ,相当于平均矩率为 2 .5 8× 10 16 ～ 3.10× 10 16 N·m/a .b值图象显示灵石—洪洞段与临汾盆地段现今处于低或较低的应力水平 ,可能反映自 130 3年M8和 16 95年M7.5大地震破裂后 ,这两段的断面强度至今仍未恢复 .候马段和介休—汾阳段具有相对较高的应力水平 ,并结合平均复发间隔估值 ,判定这两个段落可能是未来强震的潜在危险段 .
Since the great 1303 Hongtong,Shanxi,earthquake of magnitude 8,700 years have elapsed. To analyze the long-term seismic potential,this paper divides the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system into 5 seismogenic segments. Based on data of historical earthquakes and GPS observation,the authors estimate mean seismic-moment rates and average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes for the individual segments,and further analyze relative levels of current stress cumulation on the segments based on mapping b -values along the graben system by using the network seismic data for the recent over 30 years. The main result shows that the Linfen basin segment has an estimated mean seismic-moment rate of 2.21×10 16 ～3.03×10 16 N·m/a,and its average recurrence interval for M =7.5 earthquake is estimated to be between 1 560 and 2 140 years. For the Lingshi-Hongtong segment,the estimated average recurrence interval for M =8 earthquakes is between 4 300 and 5 100 years,equivalent to having a mean moment-rate of 2.58×10 16 ～3.10×10 16 N·m/a. The contour map of b -values shows that the two segments of Lingshi-Hongtong and Linfen basin have been being at low or relatively low stress levels,reflecting that since the 1303 M =8 and the 1695 M =7.5 earthquake ruptures,the fault-plane′s strengths of the both segments have not been resumed yet. And the other two segments,the Houma and the Jiexiu-Fenyang,have relatively high stress levels,and have been already identified as potential risky segments for the coming earthquakes from the analysis combining with the estimated average recurrence intervals of earthquakes on the both segments.
Since the great 1303 Hongtong,Shanxi,earthquake of magnitude 8,700 years have elapsed. To analyze the long-term seismic potential,this paper divides the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system into 5 seismogenic segments. Based on data of historical earthquakes and GPS observation,the authors estimate mean seismic-moment rates and average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes for the individual segments,and further analyze relative levels of current stress cumulation on the segments based on mapping b -values along the graben system by using the network seismic data for the recent over 30 years. The main result shows that the Linfen basin segment has an estimated mean seismic-moment rate of 2.21×10 16 ～3.03×10 16 N·m/a,and its average recurrence interval for M =7.5 earthquake is estimated to be between 1 560 and 2 140 years. For the Lingshi-Hongtong segment,the estimated average recurrence interval for M =8 earthquakes is between 4 300 and 5 100 years,equivalent to having a mean moment-rate of 2.58×10 16 ～3.10×10 16 N·m/a. The contour map of b -values shows that the two segments of Lingshi-Hongtong and Linfen basin have been being at low or relatively low stress levels,reflecting that since the 1303 M =8 and the 1695 M =7.5 earthquake ruptures,the fault-plane′s strengths of the both segments have not been resumed yet. And the other two segments,the Houma and the Jiexiu-Fenyang,have relatively high stress levels,and have been already identified as potential risky segments for the coming earthquakes from the analysis combining with the estimated average recurrence intervals of earthquakes on the both segments.
引文
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WyssM ,SchorlemmerD ,WiemerS .2000.Mappingasperitiesbyminimaoflocalrecurrencetime:SanJacintoElsinorefaultzones[J].JGeophysRes,105(B4):7829～7844
丁国瑜.1998.关于公元649年临汾地震的讨论[J].中国地震,14(3):38～42
邓起东,苏宗正,王挺梅,等.1993.临汾盆地地震构造基本特征和潜在震源区的划分[A].见:马宗晋主编.山西临汾地震研究与系统减灾[M].北京:地震出版社,67～95
国家地震局地球物理研究所,复旦大学历史地理研究所.1990a.中国历史地震图集(远古至元时期)[M ].北京:中国地图出版社,174
国家地震局地球物理研究所,复旦大学历史地理研究所.1990b.中国历史地震图集(明时期)[M].北京:中国地图出版社,194
国家地震局地球物理研究所,复旦大学历史地理研究所.1990c.中国历史地震图集(清时期)[M].北京:中国地图出版社,244
国家地震局震害防御司.1995.中国历史强震目录[M].北京:地震出版社,514
李延兴,杨国华,李智,等.2003.中国大陆活动地块的运动与应变状态[J].中国科学,D辑,33(增刊):65～81
齐书勤.1993.关于山西地震历史资料的研究与认识[A].见:马宗晋主编.山西临汾地震研究与系统减灾[M].北京:地震出版社,302～306
山西省地方志编纂委员会.1991.山西通志第五卷·地震志[M].北京:中华书局,346
闻学泽.1995.活动断裂地震潜势的定量评估[M].北京:地震出版社,150
闻学泽.2000.山西1303年大地震破裂对相邻断裂段地震复发行为的影响[J].中国地震,16(1):22～27
闻学泽.2001.活动断裂的可变破裂尺度地震行为与级联破裂模式的应用[J].地震学报,23(4):380～390
徐锡伟,邓起东.1993.1303年洪洞地震的地震构造[A].见:马宗晋主编.山西临汾地震研究与系统减灾[M].北京:地震出版社,149～158
杨国华,韩月萍,王敏.2003.近十年华北地壳水平运动的若干特征[J].中国地震,19(4):324～333
易桂喜,闻学泽.2000.活动断裂带的整体地震复发行为及其与分段地震复发行为的关系[J].地震学报,22(5):527～537
张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学,D辑,33(增刊):12～20
中国地震局震害防御司编.1999.中国近代地震目录[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,637
ScholzCH .1968.Thefrequency magnituderelationtomicrofracturinginrockanditsrelationtoearthquakes[J].BullSeismSocAmer,58:399～415
ShimazakiK ,NakataT .1980.Time predictablerecurrencemodelforlargeearthquakes[J].GeophysResLett,7:279～282
UrbancicTI,TrifuCI ,LongJM ,etal.1992.Space timecorrelationofbvalueswithstressrelease[J].PureApplGeophys,139:449～462
WellsDL ,CoppersmithKJ .1994.Newempiricalrelationshipsamongmagnitude,rupturelength,rupturewidth,rupturearea,andsurfacedisplacement[J].BullSeismSocAmer,84:974～1002
WiemerS ,WyssM .1997.Mappingthefrequency magnitudedistributioninasperities:Animprovedtechniquetocalculaterecurrencetimes[J].JGeophysRes,102(B7):15115～15128
WyssM ,SchorlemmerD ,WiemerS .2000.Mappingasperitiesbyminimaoflocalrecurrencetime:SanJacintoElsinorefaultzones[J].JGeophysRes,105(B4):7829～7844
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