区域滑坡灾害危险性时间预测研究
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摘要
以巴东县新城区历史滑坡资料为例,借鉴地震灾害相关的预测理论与方法,对该区在未来5a,10a及50a不同时段内不同规模滑坡发生的超越概率进行了定量计算与预测.结果表明:巴东县新城区在未来5a,10a及50a时间段内,在不考虑人类防治工程的条件下,该区有可能发生规模在50×104 m3以上的中型滑坡、250×104 m3以上的大型滑坡、400×104 m3以上的大型滑坡的概率均达90%.研究成果为社会经济发展的防灾减灾需求灾害管理提供了科学依据,同时也为完善丰富滑坡灾害危险性评价理论的学科体系奠定了基础.
On the basis of previous studies,the hazards survey data and earthquake hazard prediction theory were used,the exceeding probability is separately predicted when the hazards are in the future 5,10 and 50 years without considering the hazard control work as the sample of landslide hazards of Badong County.The predicted result shows the landslide hazard take place probably if man doesn't control it.The Probability of the scale over 50×104 m3 is 90% in the next five years.The probability of the scale over 250 ×104 m3 is 90% in the next ten years.And the probability of the scale over 400 × 104 m3 is also 90% in the next fifty years.At the same time,research results provide a scientific basis for the disaster prevention and mitigation of disaster management during the socio-economic development,but also it laids the foundation when it riches landslide hazard evaluation theory.And it is also important to increase the level of the application and perfect the theories and methods by more deeply and widely studies.
On the basis of previous studies,the hazards survey data and earthquake hazard prediction theory were used,the exceeding probability is separately predicted when the hazards are in the future 5,10 and 50 years without considering the hazard control work as the sample of landslide hazards of Badong County.The predicted result shows the landslide hazard take place probably if man doesn't control it.The Probability of the scale over 50×104 m3 is 90% in the next five years.The probability of the scale over 250 ×104 m3 is 90% in the next ten years.And the probability of the scale over 400 × 104 m3 is also 90% in the next fifty years.At the same time,research results provide a scientific basis for the disaster prevention and mitigation of disaster management during the socio-economic development,but also it laids the foundation when it riches landslide hazard evaluation theory.And it is also important to increase the level of the application and perfect the theories and methods by more deeply and widely studies.
引文
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[2]张业成.中国自然灾害综合风险预测与分区减灾对策[J].地质灾害与环境保护,1998,9(1):1-5.Zhang Y C.Comprehensive risk prediction and counter measures fordisasters in china[J].Journal of Geological Hazards and EnvironmentPreservation,1998,9(1):1-5
[3]殷跃平,柳源.中国地质灾害防治研究-对国际减灾十年活动(1990-2000年)的思索[J].工程地质学报,2000(增刊):1-10.Yin Y P,Liu Y.On the ponder of geological hazards preventions inChina in ten years(1990-2000)[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2000(S):1-10.
[4]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.Huang C F.Basic principles of risk analysis of natural disasters[M].Beijing:science press.
[5]曹洪洋,边亚东,袁颖.一种新的区域滑坡影响因子敏感性分析方法研究与应用[J].湖南科技大学学报(自然科学版),2009,24(2):49-52.Cao H Y,Bian Y D,Yuan Y.Application and research of a newmethodon sensitivity analysis of influence factors of regional landslides[J].Journal of Hunan University of Science&Technology(Natural ScienceEdition),2009,24(2):49-52.
[6]黄润秋,向喜琼,巨能攀.我国区域地质灾害评价的现状及问题[J].地质通报,2004,23(11):1078-1082.Huang R Q,Xiang X Q,Ju N P.Assessment of China's regionalgeohazards:present situation and problems[J].Regional GeologyofChina,2004,23(11):1078-1082.
[7]向喜琼.区域滑坡地质灾害危险性评价与风险管理[D],成都:成都理工大学,2005.Xiang X Q.Regional landslide hazard assessment and risk management[D].Chengdu:Chengdu University of Technology,2005.
[8]殷坤龙.滑坡灾害预测预报[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社,2004.Yin K L.Landslide hazard prediction and evaluation[M].WuHan:ChinaUniversity of Geosciences Press,2004.
[9]Aleotti P,Chowdhury R.Landslide hazard assessment:summary reviewand newperspectives[J].Bull Eng Geol Env,1999,58:21-44.
[10]陈颙,刘杰,陈棋福.地震危险性分析和震害预测[M].北京:地震出版社,1999.Chen Y,Liu J,Chen Q F.Dangers analysis and forecast of the earthquake[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1999.
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