铁路桥梁震害预测及损失估计方法的研究与应用
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摘要
从震害预测及损失估计入手,以桥梁为例,总结了经验统计法、规范校核法、理论计算法和定性评价法等桥梁震害预测方法,讨论了直接损失和间接损失的估计方法,并在原有方法基础上,参考相关文献,对桥梁直接损失计算方法提出简便算法建议;结合台湾九二一集集地震震害调查,统计了地震前后台湾地区的GDP曲线走势,并根据文献[9]中的方法,评价了间接损失对台湾经济发展的影响;提出了铁路间接损失计算方法建议;分别用经验统计法和定性评价法对集集地震中部分受损桥梁进行了震害预测,理论预测结果与震害基本相符;最后,作者提出了需进一步开展的工作及建议。本文工作可为铁路震害预测及重大铁道工程的抗震设防提供参考。
The methods about the earthquake vulnerability assessment of railway bridges are reviewed.The calculating methods of the direct and the indirect loss estimation are discussed.Some advice are provided to modify the direct loss calculating method.With the example of the Chi-Chi earthquake,the authors use statistics to draw the GDP curve about Taiwan economics before and after the earthquake,analyze the influnce of the indirect loss on Taiwan economics,estimate the vulnerability of some seriously damaged bridges by the methods of experimence statistics and qualitative evaluation.Finally,the authors point out the next step of work and give some advice.The work specified in this paper can be as reference to railway earthquake vulnerability assessment and to anti-seismic construction of the major railway works.
The methods about the earthquake vulnerability assessment of railway bridges are reviewed.The calculating methods of the direct and the indirect loss estimation are discussed.Some advice are provided to modify the direct loss calculating method.With the example of the Chi-Chi earthquake,the authors use statistics to draw the GDP curve about Taiwan economics before and after the earthquake,analyze the influnce of the indirect loss on Taiwan economics,estimate the vulnerability of some seriously damaged bridges by the methods of experimence statistics and qualitative evaluation.Finally,the authors point out the next step of work and give some advice.The work specified in this paper can be as reference to railway earthquake vulnerability assessment and to anti-seismic construction of the major railway works.
引文
[1]李向国,岳渠德,曹明星.京沪高速铁路(北段)地震灾害预测研究[J].石家庄铁道学院,1998,11(4):73—78.Li Xiangguo,Yue Qude,Cao Mingxing.Forecasting Studyon Seismic Disaster of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Rail-way(north section)[J].Journal of Shijiazhuang RailwayInstitute,1998,11(4):73—78.
[2]王东升,冯启民.桥梁震害预测方法[J].自然灾害学报,2001,110(3):113—118.Wang Dongsheng,Feng Qimin.Seismic damage assess-ment methods for bridges[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2001,110(3):113—118.
[3]李荣安,房贺岩,岳明生,等.辽西地震重点监视区桥梁震害预测[J].地震工程与工程振动,1996,16(3):122—126.Li Rongan,Fang Heyan and Yue Mingsheng,et al.AMethod for Bridge Disasters Damage Assessment in LiaoXiDistrict[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vi-bration,1996,16(3):122—126.
[4]Hwang H,刘晶波.地震作用下钢筋混凝土桥梁结构易损性分析[J].土木工程学报,2004,137(6):47—51.Hwang H,Liu Jingbo.Seismic Fragility Analysis of Rein-forced Concrete Bridges[J].China Civil Engineering Jour-nal,2004,137(6):47—51.
[5]王东升,翟桐,郭明珠.利用Push-over方法评价桥梁的抗震安全性[J].世界地震工程,2000,116(6):47—51.Wang Dongsheng,Zhai Tong,Guo Mingzhu.EstimatedSeismic Vulnerability of bridges by Push-over Method[J].World Earthquake Engineering,2000,116(6):47—51.
[6]张于心,鲍枫.铁路受灾经济损失评估方法探讨[J].北方交通大学学报,2000,24(6):63—65.Zhang Yuxin,Bao Feng.An Approach to Assessment ofRailway Economic Loss from Disaster[J].Journal ofNorthern Jiaotong University,2000,24(6):63—65.
[7]谢楠,陈英俊.铁路桥梁在地震作用下考虑行车安全的可靠度问题[J].工程力学,2002,119(10):36—40.Xie Nan,Chen Yingjun.The Reliability Problem of Train-Running Safety for Reinforced Concrete Railway Bridge un-der Earthquake[J].Engineering Mechanics,2002,119(10):36—40.
[8]欧进萍,牛荻涛,王光远.非线性钢筋混凝土抗震结构的损失估计与优化设计[J].土木工程学报,1993,26(10):14—21.Ou Jinping,Niu Ditao,Wang Guangyuan.Loss Assess-ment and Optimum Design of Nonlinear Reinforced Con-crete Seismic Structures[J].China Civil Engineering Jour-nal,1993,26(10):14—21.
[9]陈,陈棋福,陈凌.地震损失预测评估中的易损性分析[J].中国地震,1999,115(2):97—105.Chen Yong,Chen Qifu and Chen Ling.Vulnerability Anal-ysis in Earthquake Loss Estimate[J].Earthquake Researchin China,1999,115(2):97—105.
[10]钟江荣,林均歧.地震间接经济损失研究[J].自然灾害学报,2003,112(4):88—92.Zhong Jiangrong,Lin Junqi.Study on Seismic Indirect E-conomic Loss[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2003,112(4):88—92.
[11]台湾铁路管理局.9.21集集大地震铁路灾害复旧记录[EB/OL].http://kbteq.ascc.net/archive/tra/tocl.html,1999.
[12]台湾"交通部公路总局",等.九二一集集地震桥梁震害线上史料馆[EB/OL].http://www.ncree.org.tw/921-bridge-project/
[13]李非,张玉冰.至2020年台湾经济发展趋势与两岸关系[J].台湾研究集刊,2004,2:9—20.Li Fei,Zhang Yubing.Development Trend of Taiwan E-conomy and Relationship between Mainland and Taiwan to2020[J].Taiwan Research Quarterly,2004,2:9—20.
[2]王东升,冯启民.桥梁震害预测方法[J].自然灾害学报,2001,110(3):113—118.Wang Dongsheng,Feng Qimin.Seismic damage assess-ment methods for bridges[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2001,110(3):113—118.
[3]李荣安,房贺岩,岳明生,等.辽西地震重点监视区桥梁震害预测[J].地震工程与工程振动,1996,16(3):122—126.Li Rongan,Fang Heyan and Yue Mingsheng,et al.AMethod for Bridge Disasters Damage Assessment in LiaoXiDistrict[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vi-bration,1996,16(3):122—126.
[4]Hwang H,刘晶波.地震作用下钢筋混凝土桥梁结构易损性分析[J].土木工程学报,2004,137(6):47—51.Hwang H,Liu Jingbo.Seismic Fragility Analysis of Rein-forced Concrete Bridges[J].China Civil Engineering Jour-nal,2004,137(6):47—51.
[5]王东升,翟桐,郭明珠.利用Push-over方法评价桥梁的抗震安全性[J].世界地震工程,2000,116(6):47—51.Wang Dongsheng,Zhai Tong,Guo Mingzhu.EstimatedSeismic Vulnerability of bridges by Push-over Method[J].World Earthquake Engineering,2000,116(6):47—51.
[6]张于心,鲍枫.铁路受灾经济损失评估方法探讨[J].北方交通大学学报,2000,24(6):63—65.Zhang Yuxin,Bao Feng.An Approach to Assessment ofRailway Economic Loss from Disaster[J].Journal ofNorthern Jiaotong University,2000,24(6):63—65.
[7]谢楠,陈英俊.铁路桥梁在地震作用下考虑行车安全的可靠度问题[J].工程力学,2002,119(10):36—40.Xie Nan,Chen Yingjun.The Reliability Problem of Train-Running Safety for Reinforced Concrete Railway Bridge un-der Earthquake[J].Engineering Mechanics,2002,119(10):36—40.
[8]欧进萍,牛荻涛,王光远.非线性钢筋混凝土抗震结构的损失估计与优化设计[J].土木工程学报,1993,26(10):14—21.Ou Jinping,Niu Ditao,Wang Guangyuan.Loss Assess-ment and Optimum Design of Nonlinear Reinforced Con-crete Seismic Structures[J].China Civil Engineering Jour-nal,1993,26(10):14—21.
[9]陈,陈棋福,陈凌.地震损失预测评估中的易损性分析[J].中国地震,1999,115(2):97—105.Chen Yong,Chen Qifu and Chen Ling.Vulnerability Anal-ysis in Earthquake Loss Estimate[J].Earthquake Researchin China,1999,115(2):97—105.
[10]钟江荣,林均歧.地震间接经济损失研究[J].自然灾害学报,2003,112(4):88—92.Zhong Jiangrong,Lin Junqi.Study on Seismic Indirect E-conomic Loss[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2003,112(4):88—92.
[11]台湾铁路管理局.9.21集集大地震铁路灾害复旧记录[EB/OL].http://kbteq.ascc.net/archive/tra/tocl.html,1999.
[12]台湾"交通部公路总局",等.九二一集集地震桥梁震害线上史料馆[EB/OL].http://www.ncree.org.tw/921-bridge-project/
[13]李非,张玉冰.至2020年台湾经济发展趋势与两岸关系[J].台湾研究集刊,2004,2:9—20.Li Fei,Zhang Yubing.Development Trend of Taiwan E-conomy and Relationship between Mainland and Taiwan to2020[J].Taiwan Research Quarterly,2004,2:9—20.
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