本世纪我国大陆地区还可能发生多少次巨大地震

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英文篇名：How Many More Great Earthquakes Will Occur in the Chinese Mainland in This Century? 中文刊名：防灾科技学院学报 英文刊名：Journal of Institute of Disaster-Prevention Science and Technology 作者：李艳娥 ; 赵晓燕 ; 陈学忠 英文作者：Li Yan’e1 ; Zhao Xiaoyan2 ; Chen Xuezhong1(1.Institute of Geophysics ; CEA ; Beijing 100081 ; 2.Institute of Disaster-Prevention Science and Technology ; Yanjiao ; Hebei 065201) 中文关键词：本世纪 ; 我国大陆地区 ; 巨大地震 英文关键词：this century ; Chinese mainland ; great earthquake 出版日期：2009-12-15 机构：中国地震局地球物理研究所;防灾科技学院; 年：2009 期：04 出版单位：防灾科技学院学报

摘要

利用现有地震目录,在假定我国大陆地区为一个相对独立的地震活动区,巨大地震的孕育不受其它地区地震的影响的前提下,分析了巨大地震活动特征。结果表明,我国大陆地区巨大地震活动具有成组性和阶段性特点。由此对本世纪巨大地震发生进行了估计:本世纪我国大陆地区尚可发生6次左右巨大地震,下次巨大地震最早可在2019年前后发生。
Provided the Chinese mainland is a relatively independent region of seismicity where the pregnancy of great earthquakes could not be affected by earthquakes in other areas,the regular pattern of the great earthquakes is investigated by use of the existing earthquake catalog.The result shows that the great earthquakes usually occur in a group and appear different characteristics in different stages.According to that,the occurrence of great earthquakes in this century is estimated: there could be about 6 more great earthquakes occurring in the 21st century and the next great earthquake could occur foremost around in 2019.

引文

[1]车用太,刘成龙.汶川地震后关于地震预测问题的再思考[J].国际地震动态,2008(10):1-6.
    [2]陈章立,李志雄.严重的挫折重要的启示——汶川8.0级地震引发的对地震预测研究的某些科学思考[J].地震,2008,29(1):182-191.
    [3]Bakun,W.H.and A.G.Lindh(1985).The Parkfield,California,earthquake prediction experiment[J].Science 229,619-624.