区域优势构造面和余震节面库仑应力变化相关性与地震预测意义
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摘要
根据2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震震源机制,计算了主震破裂在区域优势直立走滑构造面上引起的库仑应力变化,发现3级以上余震大部分分布在库仑应力变化为正的区段,与应力的正相关性为56%—71%;5级余震与应力的正相关性达到60%—80%.5级余震节面上库仑应力变化的正相关性为60%—80%,其效果与优势构造面具有等价性.表明应用库仑应力函数方法分析区域优势构造面应力变化,可能是判断未来地震活动发生地点的一条有效途径.其物理机制可能源于地壳应变主体单元中区域应变能与单元中包含的不同尺度断层面上应力分布的正相关性.亦即主破裂造成沿区域优势构造产生应力的不均匀分布,应力的非均匀性引起区域应变能的非均匀分布,在应变能升高的区段,某些次生断裂面应力随之升高,从而引发余震活动.
Based on the focal mechanism solution of the 2001 MS8.1 earthquake west to Kunlun Mountain Pass,the Coulomb stress change on regional dominant faults induced by the main-shock were calculated.We noticed that most aftershocks(ML≥3.0)occurred in the region with positive Coulomb stress change,with the coincidence between them reaching to 56%--71%.For ML≥5.0 aftershocks,60%--80% of their possible fault planes show positive Coulomb stress change.This coincidence rate of 60%--80% for ML≥5.0 aftershocks is close to the consistence rate for regional dominant faults.This suggests that analyzing Coulomb stress change on regional dominant faults may be a useful way for predicting future earthquake positions.Its mechanism may be that there is positive correlation between the stress on the faults of difference scales and the regional strain energy in main elements of the crust.Namely,the mainshock produces heterogeneous stress distribution along the regional dominant faults,and on some branch faults with increased strain energy occurred the aftershocks.
Based on the focal mechanism solution of the 2001 MS8.1 earthquake west to Kunlun Mountain Pass,the Coulomb stress change on regional dominant faults induced by the main-shock were calculated.We noticed that most aftershocks(ML≥3.0)occurred in the region with positive Coulomb stress change,with the coincidence between them reaching to 56%--71%.For ML≥5.0 aftershocks,60%--80% of their possible fault planes show positive Coulomb stress change.This coincidence rate of 60%--80% for ML≥5.0 aftershocks is close to the consistence rate for regional dominant faults.This suggests that analyzing Coulomb stress change on regional dominant faults may be a useful way for predicting future earthquake positions.Its mechanism may be that there is positive correlation between the stress on the faults of difference scales and the regional strain energy in main elements of the crust.Namely,the mainshock produces heterogeneous stress distribution along the regional dominant faults,and on some branch faults with increased strain energy occurred the aftershocks.
引文
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Pollitz F F,Sacks I S.2002.Stress triggering of the1999Hector mine earthquake by transient deformationfollowingthe1992Landers earthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,92(3):1487--1496.
Robinson R,Zhou S.2005.Stressinteractions withinthe Tangshan,China,earthquake sequence of1976[J].Bull SeismSoc Amer,95(6):2501--2505.
Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.1997.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since1939by earthquakestress triggering[J].J Geophys Intern,128(3):594--604.
Tocheport A,Rivera L,Van der Woerd J.2006.Astudy of the14November2001Kokoxili earthquake:History and ge-ometry of the rupture fromteleseismic data and field observations[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,96(5):1729--1741.
Xu X,Yu G,Kinger Y,Tapponnier P,Van der Woerd J.2006.Reevaluation of surface parameters andfaulting segmen-tation of the2001Kunlunshan earthquake(MW7.8),northern Tibetan Plateau,China[J].J Geophys Res,111,B05316,doi:10.1029/2004JB003488.
陈杰,陈宇坤,丁国瑜,王赞军,田勤俭,尹功明,单新建,王志才.2004.2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震地表同震位移分布特征[J].地震地质,26(3):378--392.
陈杰,陈宇坤,丁国瑜,田勤俭,王赞军,单新建,任金卫,赵瑞斌,王志才.2003.2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震地表破裂带[J].第四纪研究,23(6):629--639.
郝平,傅征祥,田勤俭,刘杰,刘桂萍.2004.昆仑山口西8.1级地震强余震库仑破裂应力触发研究[J].地震学报,26(1):30--37.
刘桂萍,傅征祥.2000.1976年7月28日唐山7.8级地震触发的区域地震活动和静应力场变化[J].地震学报,22(1):17--26.
乔学军,王琪,杜瑞林,陈宗时,游新兆,谭凯.2002.昆仑山口西MS8.1地震的地壳变形特征[J].大地测量与地球动力学,22(4):6--11.
沈正康,万永革,甘卫军,曾跃华,任群.2003.东昆仑活动断裂带大地震之间的黏弹性应力触发研究[J].地球物理学报,46(6):786--795.
万永革,王敏,沈正康,陈杰,张祖胜,王庆良,甘卫军.2004.利用GPS和水准测量资料反演2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震的同震滑动分布[J].地震地质,26(3):393--404.
万永革,沈正康,王敏,张祖胜,甘卫军,王庆良,盛书中.2008.根据GPS和InSAR数据反演2001年昆仑山口西地震同震破裂分布[J].地球物理学报,51(4):1074--1084.
许力生,陈运泰.2004.从长周期波形资料反演2001年11月14日昆仑山口地震时空破裂过程[J].中国科学(D辑),34(3):256--264.
Scholz C H(著).1990.马胜利,曾文正,刘力强(译).1996.地震断层力学(The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faul-ting)[M].北京:地震出版社:141--173.
Chan C H,Ma K F.2004.Possibility of forecasting aftershock distributions fromstress change:Acase study of InlandTai wan earthquakes[J].Terr At mo and Ocea Scie,15(3):503--521.
Klinger Y,Xu X,Tapponnier P,Van der Woerd J,Lasserre C,King G.2005.High-resolution satellite imagery map-ping of the surface rupture and slip distribution of theMW7.8,14November2001Kokoxili earthquake,Kunlunfault,Northern Tibet,China[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,95(5):1970--1987.
Lasserre C,Peltzer G,Cramp F,Klinger Y,Van der Woerd J,Tapponnier P.2005.Coseismic deformation of theMW7.8Kokoxili earthquake in Tibet,measured by synthetic aperature radar interferometry[J].J Geophys Res,110,B12408,doi:10.1029/2004JB003500.
Lin A,Kikuchi M,Fu B.2003.Rupture segmentation and process of the2001MW7.8central Kunlun,China,earth-quake[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,93(6):2477--2492.
Ozacar A A,Beck S L.2002.Complex rupture process of the November14,2001,Kunlun earthquake and its tectonicsignificance[C]∥AGU Fall Meeting Abstract#S72E05,2002AGUFM.S72E.05o.
Pollitz F F,Sacks I S.2002.Stress triggering of the1999Hector mine earthquake by transient deformationfollowingthe1992Landers earthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,92(3):1487--1496.
Robinson R,Zhou S.2005.Stressinteractions withinthe Tangshan,China,earthquake sequence of1976[J].Bull SeismSoc Amer,95(6):2501--2505.
Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.1997.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since1939by earthquakestress triggering[J].J Geophys Intern,128(3):594--604.
Tocheport A,Rivera L,Van der Woerd J.2006.Astudy of the14November2001Kokoxili earthquake:History and ge-ometry of the rupture fromteleseismic data and field observations[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,96(5):1729--1741.
Xu X,Yu G,Kinger Y,Tapponnier P,Van der Woerd J.2006.Reevaluation of surface parameters andfaulting segmen-tation of the2001Kunlunshan earthquake(MW7.8),northern Tibetan Plateau,China[J].J Geophys Res,111,B05316,doi:10.1029/2004JB003488.
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