南北地震带北部5次(1561～1920年)M≥7级地震触发关系研究
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摘要
以南北地震带北部的青藏高原东北边缘与华北构造区过渡部位为例,通过建立地震构造模型,计算静态库仑破裂应力改变量(ΔCFS),研究了该区1561~1920年360年间5次M≥7级地震之间的触发过程.结果表明,在1561年罗山东麓71/4级地震之后,下一次地震无一例外地发生在前面地震产生的应力触发区(ΔCFS>0).在4条被触发的发震断裂中,有3条发震断裂的平均ΔCFS>0.2×105Pa,最大可达0.62×105Pa,超出目前普遍认为触发应力阀值(0.1×105Pa).根据断裂库仑破裂应力变化量(ΔCFS)和构造应力累计率(δτ),计算获得了下一次地震发生的提前量(ΔT),地震活动提前量最大可以达到160a.在一条重要活动构造带或地区上,一次地震发生对下一次地震的触发缩短了地震重复发生所需要的累积时间,使得地震可以提前发生,这一方面使得某一特定的发震断裂在时间尺度表现出准周期性,另一方面使得空间上不同发震断裂的地震活动表现出丛集发生的现象.此项研究有助于认识断裂间相互作用特点、揭示地震丛集发生规律以及预测未来地震危险区.
Taking five major,M≥7 earthquakes occurred in the northern section of South-north seismic zone,an inter-region between northeast Tibetan Plateau and North China block,during 360a from 1561 to 1920 as examples,the Coulomb failure stress changes(ΔCFS′s) caused by the previous earthquakes are calculated on the rakes of fault surfaces of the later earthquakes to study earthquake triggering by building seismotectonic models,based on our knowledge about the seismogenic faults.The results suggest that,after the 1561 Luoshan M 71/4 earthquake happened,the next four events would occur in the stress triggering area(ΔCFS>0).ΔCFS′s related to the Yunwushan fault,the Helanshan fault and the Haiyuan fault are larger than 0.2×105 Pa,surpassing the triggering threshold of 0.1×105 Pa.It means that the distribution of ΔCFS has a significant indication on the location of earthquakes in the future.According to ΔCFS and tectonic stress accumulation rate(δτ),the periods reduced by ΔCFS are calculated,which can be as large as 160a for the corresponding earthquakes.The triggering caused by the previous earthquake to the next shortens the accumulation time of earthquake re-occurrence,which makes the earthquake happen ahead.It can cause that earthquake activity shows temporally the feature of quasi-cycle for a seismogenic fault and spatially the phenomenon of clustering for different seismogenic faults.This study contributes to our understandings about fault interaction,relationship among strong earthquakes even at different seismotectonic provinces and seismic risky areas in the future.
Taking five major,M≥7 earthquakes occurred in the northern section of South-north seismic zone,an inter-region between northeast Tibetan Plateau and North China block,during 360a from 1561 to 1920 as examples,the Coulomb failure stress changes(ΔCFS′s) caused by the previous earthquakes are calculated on the rakes of fault surfaces of the later earthquakes to study earthquake triggering by building seismotectonic models,based on our knowledge about the seismogenic faults.The results suggest that,after the 1561 Luoshan M 71/4 earthquake happened,the next four events would occur in the stress triggering area(ΔCFS>0).ΔCFS′s related to the Yunwushan fault,the Helanshan fault and the Haiyuan fault are larger than 0.2×105 Pa,surpassing the triggering threshold of 0.1×105 Pa.It means that the distribution of ΔCFS has a significant indication on the location of earthquakes in the future.According to ΔCFS and tectonic stress accumulation rate(δτ),the periods reduced by ΔCFS are calculated,which can be as large as 160a for the corresponding earthquakes.The triggering caused by the previous earthquake to the next shortens the accumulation time of earthquake re-occurrence,which makes the earthquake happen ahead.It can cause that earthquake activity shows temporally the feature of quasi-cycle for a seismogenic fault and spatially the phenomenon of clustering for different seismogenic faults.This study contributes to our understandings about fault interaction,relationship among strong earthquakes even at different seismotectonic provinces and seismic risky areas in the future.
引文
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[12]Harris R A,Si mpson R W.Suppression of large earthquakesby stress shadows:A comparison of Coulomb and rate-and-state.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103:24439~24451
[13]Han Z J.Possible reduction of earthquake hazard on theWellington Fault,New Zealand,after the nearby 1855,M8.2 Wairarapa Earthquake and i mplication for interpretingpaleoearthquake intervals.Annals of Geophysics,2003,46(5):1141~1154
[14]Robinson R,Benites R.Synthetic seismicity models for theWelington region,NewZealand:I mplicationfor the temporaldistribution of large events.J.Geophys.Res.,1996,101:27833~27844
[15]Okada Y.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faultsin a half-space.Bull.Sei mol.Soc.Am.,1992,82:1018~1040
[16]傅征祥,刘桂萍,陈棋福.青藏高原北缘海原、古浪、昌马大地震间相互作用的动力学分析.地震地质,2001,23(1):35~42Fu Z X,Liu G P,Chen QF.Dynamic analysis oninteractionbetween the Haiyuan-Gulang-Changma great earthquake inthe north boundary of the Tibetan Plateau.Seismology andGeology(in Chinese),2001,23(1):35~42
[17]Pinar A,Honkura Y,Kuge K.Seismic activity triggered bythe 1999 Izmit earthquake and its i mplications for theassessment of future seismic risk.Geophys.J.Int.,2001,146:F1~F7
[18]McGinty P,Darby D.Earthquake triggeringin the Hawke′sBay,NewZealand,regionfrom1931 to 1934 asinferredfromelastic dislocation and static stress modeling.J.Geophys.Res.,2001,106(B11):26593~26604
[19]Toda S,Stein R S.Toggling of seismicity by the 1997Kagoshi ma earthquake couplet:A demonstration of ti me-dependent stress transfer.J.Geophys.Res.,2003,108(B12):2527,doi:10.1029/2003JB002527
[20]Perniola B,Bressan G,Pondrelli S.Changes in failure stressand stress transfer during the 1976-77 Friuli earthquakesequences.Geophys.J.Int.,2004,156(2):297~306
[21]Lin J,Stein R S.Stress triggering in thrust and subductionearthquakes and stress interaction between the southern SanAndreas and nearby thrust and strike-slip faults.J.Geophys.Res.,2004,109:B02303,doc:10.1029/2003JB002607
[22]Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E.Stress changes from the 2008Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuanbasin.Nature,2008,07177:1~2
[23]国家地震局《鄂尔多斯周缘活动断裂系》课题组.鄂尔多斯周缘活动断裂系.北京:地震出版社,1988The Research Group on Active Fault System around OrdosMassif,State Seismological Bureau.Active Fault SystemAround Ordos Massif(in Chinese).Beijing:SeismologicalPress,1988
[24]国家地震局地质研究所,宁夏回族自治区地震局.海原活动断裂带.北京:地震出版社,1990Institute of Geology,State Seismological Bureau,Seismological Bureau of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.Haiyuan Active Fault.Beijing:Seismological Press,1990
[25]邓起东,于贵华,叶文华.地震地表破裂参数与震级关系的研究.见:活动断裂研究,北京:地震出版社,1992,(2):247~263Deng Q D,Yu G H,Ye W H.Study on the relationshipbetween seismic surface ruptures and magnitudes.In:Research on Active Faults(in Chinese),Beijing:Seismological Press,1992,(2):247~263
[26]闵伟,张培震,邓起东.青藏高原东北缘的区域古地震研究.地震学报,2000,22(2):163~170Min W,Zhang P Z,Deng Q D.The pri mary study on thebehavior of regional paleoearthquake reoccurrence.ACTASeismologica Sinica,2000,22(2):163~170
[27]汪一鹏,宋方敏,李志义等.宁夏香山—天景山断裂带晚第四纪强震重复间隔的研究.中国地震,1990,6(2):15~24Wang YP,Song Fang M,Li Z Y,et al.Study on recurrenceintervals of great earthquakes in the late Quaternary ofXiangshan-Tianjingshan fault zone in Ningxia.EarthquakeResearch in China(in Chinese),1990,6(2):15~24
[28]Si mpson R W,Reasenberg P A.Earthuake-induced staticstress changes on central California faults.In:Si mpson R Wed.The Loma Prieta,California Earthquake of October 17,1989-Tectonic Processes and Models.U.S.Geol.Surv.Prof.Pap.,1994,1550-F:F55-F89
[29]《中国岩石圈动力学地图集》编委会.中国岩石圈动力学概论.北京:地震出版社,1991Editorial Board of“Atlas of Lithospheric Dynamics inChina”.Introduction of Lithospheric Dynamics in China(inChinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1991
[30]Harris R A,Si mpson R W.Changes in static stress onsouthern California faults after the 1992 Landers earthquake.Nature,1992,360:251~254
[2]张国民.我国大陆强震活动的韵律性特征.地震地质,1987,9(2):27~38Zhang G M.The rhythmcharacter of strong earthquakes inChinese mainland.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),1987,9(2):27~38
[3]Sieh K E,Stuiver M,Brillinger D.A more precisechronology of earthquakes produced by the San Andreas faultin southern California.J.Geophys.Res.,1989,94:603~623
[4]McCalpin J,Nishenko S P.Holocene plaeoseismicity,temporal clustering,and probabilities of future large(M>7)earthquake on the Wasatch fault zone,Utah.J.Geophys.Res.,1996,101(B3):6233~6253
[5]Dawson T E,McGill S F,Rockwell T K.Irregularrecurrence of paleoearthquakes alongthe central Garlockfaultnear El Paso Peaks,California.J.Geophys.Res.,2003,108(B7):2356,doi:10.1029/2001JB001744
[6]Stein R S.The role of stress transfer in earthquakeoccurrence.Science,1999,402:605~609
[7]韩竹军,张国民.土耳其伊兹米特(Izmit)地震发生的构造环境分析.国际地震研究动态,2000,(1):1~7Han Z J,Zhang G M.The analysis on the tectonicenvironment for the occurrence of the Izmit earthquake,Turkey.Recent Development in World Seismology(inChinese),2000,(1):1~7
[8]徐杰,牛娈芳,王春华等.唐山—河间—磁县新生地震构造带.地震地质,1996,18(3):193~198Xu J,Niu L F,Wang C H,et al.Tangshan-Hejian-Cixiannewly-established seismotectonic zone.Seismology andGeology(in Chinese),1996,18(3):193~198
[9]沈正康,万永革,甘卫军等.东昆仑活动断裂带大地震之间的黏弹性应力触发研究.地球物理学报,2003,46(6):786~795Shen Z K,Wan Y G,Gan WJ,et al.Viscoelastic triggeringamong large earthquake along the east Kunlun fault system.Chinese J.Geophys.,2003,46(6):786~795
[10]Harris R A.Introduction to special session:stress triggers,stress shadows,and i mplications for seismic hazard.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103:24347~24358
[11]Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.Progressive failure onthe North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stresstriggering.Geophys.J.Int.,1997,128:594~604
[12]Harris R A,Si mpson R W.Suppression of large earthquakesby stress shadows:A comparison of Coulomb and rate-and-state.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103:24439~24451
[13]Han Z J.Possible reduction of earthquake hazard on theWellington Fault,New Zealand,after the nearby 1855,M8.2 Wairarapa Earthquake and i mplication for interpretingpaleoearthquake intervals.Annals of Geophysics,2003,46(5):1141~1154
[14]Robinson R,Benites R.Synthetic seismicity models for theWelington region,NewZealand:I mplicationfor the temporaldistribution of large events.J.Geophys.Res.,1996,101:27833~27844
[15]Okada Y.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faultsin a half-space.Bull.Sei mol.Soc.Am.,1992,82:1018~1040
[16]傅征祥,刘桂萍,陈棋福.青藏高原北缘海原、古浪、昌马大地震间相互作用的动力学分析.地震地质,2001,23(1):35~42Fu Z X,Liu G P,Chen QF.Dynamic analysis oninteractionbetween the Haiyuan-Gulang-Changma great earthquake inthe north boundary of the Tibetan Plateau.Seismology andGeology(in Chinese),2001,23(1):35~42
[17]Pinar A,Honkura Y,Kuge K.Seismic activity triggered bythe 1999 Izmit earthquake and its i mplications for theassessment of future seismic risk.Geophys.J.Int.,2001,146:F1~F7
[18]McGinty P,Darby D.Earthquake triggeringin the Hawke′sBay,NewZealand,regionfrom1931 to 1934 asinferredfromelastic dislocation and static stress modeling.J.Geophys.Res.,2001,106(B11):26593~26604
[19]Toda S,Stein R S.Toggling of seismicity by the 1997Kagoshi ma earthquake couplet:A demonstration of ti me-dependent stress transfer.J.Geophys.Res.,2003,108(B12):2527,doi:10.1029/2003JB002527
[20]Perniola B,Bressan G,Pondrelli S.Changes in failure stressand stress transfer during the 1976-77 Friuli earthquakesequences.Geophys.J.Int.,2004,156(2):297~306
[21]Lin J,Stein R S.Stress triggering in thrust and subductionearthquakes and stress interaction between the southern SanAndreas and nearby thrust and strike-slip faults.J.Geophys.Res.,2004,109:B02303,doc:10.1029/2003JB002607
[22]Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E.Stress changes from the 2008Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuanbasin.Nature,2008,07177:1~2
[23]国家地震局《鄂尔多斯周缘活动断裂系》课题组.鄂尔多斯周缘活动断裂系.北京:地震出版社,1988The Research Group on Active Fault System around OrdosMassif,State Seismological Bureau.Active Fault SystemAround Ordos Massif(in Chinese).Beijing:SeismologicalPress,1988
[24]国家地震局地质研究所,宁夏回族自治区地震局.海原活动断裂带.北京:地震出版社,1990Institute of Geology,State Seismological Bureau,Seismological Bureau of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.Haiyuan Active Fault.Beijing:Seismological Press,1990
[25]邓起东,于贵华,叶文华.地震地表破裂参数与震级关系的研究.见:活动断裂研究,北京:地震出版社,1992,(2):247~263Deng Q D,Yu G H,Ye W H.Study on the relationshipbetween seismic surface ruptures and magnitudes.In:Research on Active Faults(in Chinese),Beijing:Seismological Press,1992,(2):247~263
[26]闵伟,张培震,邓起东.青藏高原东北缘的区域古地震研究.地震学报,2000,22(2):163~170Min W,Zhang P Z,Deng Q D.The pri mary study on thebehavior of regional paleoearthquake reoccurrence.ACTASeismologica Sinica,2000,22(2):163~170
[27]汪一鹏,宋方敏,李志义等.宁夏香山—天景山断裂带晚第四纪强震重复间隔的研究.中国地震,1990,6(2):15~24Wang YP,Song Fang M,Li Z Y,et al.Study on recurrenceintervals of great earthquakes in the late Quaternary ofXiangshan-Tianjingshan fault zone in Ningxia.EarthquakeResearch in China(in Chinese),1990,6(2):15~24
[28]Si mpson R W,Reasenberg P A.Earthuake-induced staticstress changes on central California faults.In:Si mpson R Wed.The Loma Prieta,California Earthquake of October 17,1989-Tectonic Processes and Models.U.S.Geol.Surv.Prof.Pap.,1994,1550-F:F55-F89
[29]《中国岩石圈动力学地图集》编委会.中国岩石圈动力学概论.北京:地震出版社,1991Editorial Board of“Atlas of Lithospheric Dynamics inChina”.Introduction of Lithospheric Dynamics in China(inChinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1991
[30]Harris R A,Si mpson R W.Changes in static stress onsouthern California faults after the 1992 Landers earthquake.Nature,1992,360:251~254
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