汶川M_S 8.0地震的地下流体与宏观异常及地震预测问题的思考
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摘要
在汶川MS8.0地震地下流体异常资料的收集整理与宏观前兆异常的现场调查基础上,认真分析目前地震预测的困难与能力之后,认为汶川MS8.0地震的预测失败并不意味着地震不能预测;认为汶川MS8.0地震前前兆异常的数量偏少,但仍有一定规模的地下流体异常与明显的宏观临震异常;还认为震前作出预测可能困难,但震前有所觉察应是可能的。为提高中国地震预测能力,提出了要改革目前的"监测、预测、研究三分离"的管理机制和"专业与地方两条线"的管理体制,要改变地震日常分析预报中"电脑代替人脑"的工作现状和过早地"程式化与规范化"的工作模式,要提倡创新性的科学探索,要重视前兆异常的震前调查与落实,要重视宏观异常的监测与研究等的工作建议。
Based on the analysis of fluid anomaly data and investigation of macro precursor of the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake,and having taken careful consideration of the difficulty and ability of predicting earthquake,we found that the failed prediction of the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake doesn't mean that earthquakes can't be predicted.There were,though not much in quantity,a certain amount of underground fluid anomalies and remarkable macro anomalies occurring before the earthquake.Though it is difficult to predict the earthquake basing on them,it is possible to be aware of the impending earthquake.To improve the ability of earthquake prediction,the paper proposes to innovate the present work and administrative systems,in which,earthquake monitoring,prediction and research are separate each other,and professional and local forces are separate each other,to change the present work state of computer-replacing-human brain and the work mode of the too early use of formality and standardization,and to attach greater importance to investigation and confirmation of precursory anomalies and to monitoring and studying macro anomalies.
Based on the analysis of fluid anomaly data and investigation of macro precursor of the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake,and having taken careful consideration of the difficulty and ability of predicting earthquake,we found that the failed prediction of the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake doesn't mean that earthquakes can't be predicted.There were,though not much in quantity,a certain amount of underground fluid anomalies and remarkable macro anomalies occurring before the earthquake.Though it is difficult to predict the earthquake basing on them,it is possible to be aware of the impending earthquake.To improve the ability of earthquake prediction,the paper proposes to innovate the present work and administrative systems,in which,earthquake monitoring,prediction and research are separate each other,and professional and local forces are separate each other,to change the present work state of computer-replacing-human brain and the work mode of the too early use of formality and standardization,and to attach greater importance to investigation and confirmation of precursory anomalies and to monitoring and studying macro anomalies.
引文
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陈棋福主编.2002.中国震例(1995—1996)[C].北京:地震出版社.280—320.CHEN Qi-fu(ed).2002.Cases of Chinese earthquakes(1995—1996)[C].Seismological Press,Beijing.280—320(in Chinese).
国家地震局(梅世蓉主编).1982.一九七六年唐山地震[M].北京:地震出版社.246—295.State Seismological Bureau(MEI Shi-rong ed).1982.Tanshang Earthquake in1976[M].Seismological Press,Bei-jing.246—295(in Chinese).
河北省地震局(艾润飙主编).2006.河北省防震减灾工作40年[M].北京:当代中国出版社.54—55.Earthquake Administration of Hebei Province(AI Run-biao ed).2006.On the earthquake preparedness and disasterreduction in Hebei Province in the past40years[M].Contemporary China Publishing House,Beijing.54—55(inChinese).
岳明生.2005.地震预测研究发展战略几点思考[J].国际地震动态,(5):7—21.YUE Ming-sheng.2005.Opinions about seismological stratagem of prediction,research and development[J].RecentDevelopments in World Seismology,(5):7—21.
张国民,张晓东,吴荣辉,等.2005.地震预报回顾与展望[J].国际地震动态,(5):39—53.ZHANG Guo-min,ZHANG Xiao-dong,WURong-hui,et al.2005.Retrospect of earthquake forecast and prospect[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,(5):39—53.
张庆州.2005.唐山警世录[J].报告文学,(5):38—43,51—65.ZHANG Qing-zhou.2005.A warning from Tangshan earthquake[J].Reportage,(5):38—43,51—65.
中国地震局监测预报司(张国民主编).1999.一九九八年张北地震[M].北京:地震出版社.99—131.Monitoring and Prediction Department,CEA(ZHANG Guo-min ed).1999.Zhangbei Earthquake in1998[M].Seis-mological Press,Beijing.99—131.
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