地震动力学与板块构造:地震灾害评估(英文)
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摘要
作为地震灾害评估的理论基础,地震动力学主要研究与地震活动有关的断裂机制、破裂过程、震源辐射和由此而引起的地震波的传播及地面运动规律。对地震力学、震源辐射和能量释放等经典理论问题进行了系统研究。在此基础上,应用最新的定量地震学研究方法,以逻辑树的形式综合地震、地质和大地测量资料,提供了不同构造环境和断裂机制条件下地震灾害评估的概率分析和确定性分析实例。用于震源分析的典型构造类型包括板内地壳震源层、地壳活动断层及其速率、板块俯冲界面和俯冲板片。由于输入模型中不确定因素的存在,如输入参数的随机性和科学分析方法本身的不确定性,对分析结果的不确定性需审慎对待。通常对不同的模型或参量,包括地面衰减模型,进行加权平均可较为合理地减小结果的偏差。概率分析和确定性分析方法的结合亦为可取之有效途径。
The main topic in earthquake dynamics is to deal with rupture processes, faulting mechanism, source radiation, and propagation of the radiated seismic waves and ground motions, on which seismic hazard assessment is based. Critical theories of earthquake mechanics, source radiation and energy release are intensively studied in this paper for a completeness of systematic investigation on the topic. Using the slate - of - the - art methods for seismic hazard analysis, with which the seismological, geological and geodetic inputs are combined into logic trees, samples of the ground - motion evaluation are applied to the typical tectonic sources of earthquakes including the crustal seismogenic zones, subtraction interfaces and intraslabs. Various ground motion attenuation models with respect to faulting mechanism were examined and demonstrated through both the probabilistic and deterministic approaches. Uncertainties exist in either aleatory variability or epistemic uncertainty, but a weighted average of various alternatives in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and the combination in methodology of PSHA and DSHA (deterministic seismic hazard analysis) should better prevent it from producing an extremely biased output of hazard estimates.
The main topic in earthquake dynamics is to deal with rupture processes, faulting mechanism, source radiation, and propagation of the radiated seismic waves and ground motions, on which seismic hazard assessment is based. Critical theories of earthquake mechanics, source radiation and energy release are intensively studied in this paper for a completeness of systematic investigation on the topic. Using the slate - of - the - art methods for seismic hazard analysis, with which the seismological, geological and geodetic inputs are combined into logic trees, samples of the ground - motion evaluation are applied to the typical tectonic sources of earthquakes including the crustal seismogenic zones, subtraction interfaces and intraslabs. Various ground motion attenuation models with respect to faulting mechanism were examined and demonstrated through both the probabilistic and deterministic approaches. Uncertainties exist in either aleatory variability or epistemic uncertainty, but a weighted average of various alternatives in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and the combination in methodology of PSHA and DSHA (deterministic seismic hazard analysis) should better prevent it from producing an extremely biased output of hazard estimates.
引文
Abrahamson N A and W J Silva. 1997. Empirical response spectra attenuation relations for shallow crustal earthquakes. Seism. Res. Lett. , 68(1):94-127.
Aki K. 1966. Generation and propagation of G waves from the Niigata earthquake of June 16, 1964, Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst. (Tokyo Univ.), 44:23-88.
Ambraseys N N, K A Simpson and J J Bommer. 1996. Prediction of horizontal response spectra in Europe. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 25:371-400.
Atkinson G M. 1993. Source spectra for earthquakes in eastern North America.Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. , 83:1778-1798.
Atkinson G M and Boore D M. 2003. Empirical ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes and their application to Cascadia and other regions. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. , 93:1703-1729.
Atkinson G M and S Z Chen. 1997. Regional seismograms from historical earthquakes in southeastern Canada. Seism. Res. Lett. , 68 : 797 -807.
Boore D M. 1983. Stochastic simulation of high-frequency ground motions based on seismological models of the radiated spectra. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. , 73:1865-1894.
Boore D M, Joyner W B and Fumal T E. 1997. Equations for estimating horizontal response spectra and peak acceleration from western North American earthquakes: A summary of recent work. Seism. Res. Lett. ,68(1):128-153.
Brune J. 1970. Tectonic stress and the spectra of seismic shear waves from earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. , 75:4997 -5009.
Brune J. 1971. Correction. J. Geophys. Res. , 76:5002.
Campbell K W. 1997. Empirical near-source attenuation relationships for horizontal and vertical components of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra. Seism. Res. Lett. , 68(1):154-179.
Campbell K W and Y Bozorgnia. 2003. Updated near-source ground-motion (attenuation) relations for the horizontal and vertical components of peak ground acceleration and acceleration response spectra. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. , 93(1):314-331.
Chen S Z. 1991. Further study on source parameters at Quirke Mine, Elliot Lake, Ontario, CANMET, SP91-2E, Suppl. and Serv. Canada, Ottawa, 24pp.
Chen S Z. 1992a. E tude Approfondie des Parametres de la source des Seismes A la Mine Quirke D Elliot Lake, En Ontario, CANMET, SP91-2F, Ministre des Approvisionnements et Services Canada, Ottawa, 23pp.
Chen S Z. 1992b. Crustal structure and dynamic analysis of seisinogeny in the Lower Yangzi Valley - South Yellow Sea areas. Acta Seis-mologica Sinica, 5: 749 -758.
Chen S Z. 1992c. Crustal structure and dynamic analysis of seisinogeny in the Lower Yangzi Valley-South Yellow Sea areas. Acta Seis-mologica Sinica (Chinese Edition) , 14(2):164-171.
Chen S Z. 1998a. Dynamic friction: Ⅰ. Experimental observations of rock friction. Geotectonica et Metallogenia, 22(1-2) : 28 -41.
Chen S Z. 1998b. Dynamic friction: Ⅱ. Depth distribution of earthquakes in continental crust. Geotectonica et Metallogenia, 22(3-4):105-127.
Chen S Z. 2000. Global Comparisons of Earthquake Source Spectra, Ph. D. Thesis,Carleton University, Ottawa, 436pp.
Chen S Z and G M Atkinson. 2001a. Similarity of regional earthquake source spectra. EOS, 82(47):F903.
Chen S Z and G M. 2001b. Atkinson Source radiation and responses of wave propagation. Geotectonica et Metallogenia, 25(1-2):168 -178.
Chen S Z and G M Atkinson. 2002. Global Comparisons of earthquake source spectra. Butt. Seism. Soc. Am. , 92(3) : 885-895.
Chen S Z. 2002. Earthquake source scaling. Seism. Res. Lett. , 73 (2): 236.
Chen S Z. 2003. Empirical prediction of earthquake source radiation. Seism. Res. Lett. , 74(2):223.
Chen S Z. 2004a. Understanding earthquake source radiation. Geol. J. of China Universities, 10(4):606-614.
Chen S Z. 2004b. Earthquake source radiation: Isolating source spectra from propagation transfer functions, in Advances of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior-in Honor of Academician Zeng Rong-sheng's 80th Birthday. Beijing: Seismological Press,644-663.
Chen S Z. 2004c. Horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio and site responses. Seism. Res. Lett. , 75(2):248.
Cornell C A. 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull, Seism. Soc. Am. , 58:1583-1606.
Cornell C A. 1971. Probabilistic analysis of damage to structures under seismic loads, in Howells, D. A. , I. P. Haigh, and C. Taylor (eds.) , Dynamic Waves in Civil Engineering, John Wiley, London.
Cottrell A H. 1953. Dislocations and Plastic Flow in Crystals, Clarendon Press, Oxford.
Crouse C B. 1991. Ground-motion attenuation equations for earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone. Earthquake Spectra, 7: 210-236.
Griffith A A. 1920. The phenomena of rupture and flow in solids. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. , Ser. A, 221:163-198.
GSHAP (Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program. 2002). http:// seismo/ethz. ch/GSHAP.
Idriss I M. 1995. An overview of earthquake ground motions pertinent to seismic zonation, Proceedings Volume Ⅲ of the Fifth International Conference on Seismic Zonation, October 17-19, Nice French Riviera.
Jonathan E. 1996. Some aspects of seismicity in Zimbabwe and eastern and southern Africa, M. Sc. Thesis, Institute of Solid Earth Physics, University of Bergen, Norway, 100pp.
Kanamori H. 1977. The energy release in great earthquakes. J. Geo-phys. Res. , 82: 2981-2987.
Kostrov B. 1974. Seismic moment and energy of earthquakes, and seismic flow of rock. Izv. , Acad. Sci. , USSR, Phys. Solid Earth (English Transl. ) , 1: 23 -40.
Midzi V, D J Hlatywayo, L S Chapola, et al. 2002. Seismic hazard assessment in eastern and southern Africa. http://seismo. ethz. ch/gs-hap/earifl/report. html.
Nuttli O W. 1986. Yield estimates of Nevada test site explosions obtained from seismic Lg waves. J. Geophys. Res. , 91:2137-2151.
Sadigh K, Chang C-Y, Egan J A, et al. 1997. Attenuation relationships for shallow crustal earthquakes based on California strong motion data. Seism. Res. Lett. , 68(1):180-189.
Spudich P, Joyner W B, Lindh A G, Boore D M, Margaris B M and Fletcher J B. 1999. SEA99 - A revised ground motion prediction relation for use in extensional tectonic regimes. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. , 89(5) : 1156-1170.
Toro G R, N A Abrahamson and J F Schneider. 1997. Model of strong ground motions from earthquakes in central and eastern North America: Best estimates and uncertainties. Seism. Res. Lett. , 68(1): 41-57.
Twesigomwe E. 1997. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Uganda, Ph.D. Thesis, Makarere University, Uganda.
Youngs R R and Coppersmith K J. 1985. Implications of fault slip rates and earthquake recurrence models to probabilistic seismic hazard estimates. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. , 75 : 939-964.
Youngs R R, Chiou S-J, Silva W J, el al. 1997. Strong ground motion attenuation relationships for subduction zone earthquakes. Seism. Res. Lett. , 68(1) : 58-73.
Aki K. 1966. Generation and propagation of G waves from the Niigata earthquake of June 16, 1964, Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst. (Tokyo Univ.), 44:23-88.
Ambraseys N N, K A Simpson and J J Bommer. 1996. Prediction of horizontal response spectra in Europe. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 25:371-400.
Atkinson G M. 1993. Source spectra for earthquakes in eastern North America.Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. , 83:1778-1798.
Atkinson G M and Boore D M. 2003. Empirical ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes and their application to Cascadia and other regions. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. , 93:1703-1729.
Atkinson G M and S Z Chen. 1997. Regional seismograms from historical earthquakes in southeastern Canada. Seism. Res. Lett. , 68 : 797 -807.
Boore D M. 1983. Stochastic simulation of high-frequency ground motions based on seismological models of the radiated spectra. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. , 73:1865-1894.
Boore D M, Joyner W B and Fumal T E. 1997. Equations for estimating horizontal response spectra and peak acceleration from western North American earthquakes: A summary of recent work. Seism. Res. Lett. ,68(1):128-153.
Brune J. 1970. Tectonic stress and the spectra of seismic shear waves from earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. , 75:4997 -5009.
Brune J. 1971. Correction. J. Geophys. Res. , 76:5002.
Campbell K W. 1997. Empirical near-source attenuation relationships for horizontal and vertical components of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra. Seism. Res. Lett. , 68(1):154-179.
Campbell K W and Y Bozorgnia. 2003. Updated near-source ground-motion (attenuation) relations for the horizontal and vertical components of peak ground acceleration and acceleration response spectra. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. , 93(1):314-331.
Chen S Z. 1991. Further study on source parameters at Quirke Mine, Elliot Lake, Ontario, CANMET, SP91-2E, Suppl. and Serv. Canada, Ottawa, 24pp.
Chen S Z. 1992a. E tude Approfondie des Parametres de la source des Seismes A la Mine Quirke D Elliot Lake, En Ontario, CANMET, SP91-2F, Ministre des Approvisionnements et Services Canada, Ottawa, 23pp.
Chen S Z. 1992b. Crustal structure and dynamic analysis of seisinogeny in the Lower Yangzi Valley - South Yellow Sea areas. Acta Seis-mologica Sinica, 5: 749 -758.
Chen S Z. 1992c. Crustal structure and dynamic analysis of seisinogeny in the Lower Yangzi Valley-South Yellow Sea areas. Acta Seis-mologica Sinica (Chinese Edition) , 14(2):164-171.
Chen S Z. 1998a. Dynamic friction: Ⅰ. Experimental observations of rock friction. Geotectonica et Metallogenia, 22(1-2) : 28 -41.
Chen S Z. 1998b. Dynamic friction: Ⅱ. Depth distribution of earthquakes in continental crust. Geotectonica et Metallogenia, 22(3-4):105-127.
Chen S Z. 2000. Global Comparisons of Earthquake Source Spectra, Ph. D. Thesis,Carleton University, Ottawa, 436pp.
Chen S Z and G M Atkinson. 2001a. Similarity of regional earthquake source spectra. EOS, 82(47):F903.
Chen S Z and G M. 2001b. Atkinson Source radiation and responses of wave propagation. Geotectonica et Metallogenia, 25(1-2):168 -178.
Chen S Z and G M Atkinson. 2002. Global Comparisons of earthquake source spectra. Butt. Seism. Soc. Am. , 92(3) : 885-895.
Chen S Z. 2002. Earthquake source scaling. Seism. Res. Lett. , 73 (2): 236.
Chen S Z. 2003. Empirical prediction of earthquake source radiation. Seism. Res. Lett. , 74(2):223.
Chen S Z. 2004a. Understanding earthquake source radiation. Geol. J. of China Universities, 10(4):606-614.
Chen S Z. 2004b. Earthquake source radiation: Isolating source spectra from propagation transfer functions, in Advances of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior-in Honor of Academician Zeng Rong-sheng's 80th Birthday. Beijing: Seismological Press,644-663.
Chen S Z. 2004c. Horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio and site responses. Seism. Res. Lett. , 75(2):248.
Cornell C A. 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull, Seism. Soc. Am. , 58:1583-1606.
Cornell C A. 1971. Probabilistic analysis of damage to structures under seismic loads, in Howells, D. A. , I. P. Haigh, and C. Taylor (eds.) , Dynamic Waves in Civil Engineering, John Wiley, London.
Cottrell A H. 1953. Dislocations and Plastic Flow in Crystals, Clarendon Press, Oxford.
Crouse C B. 1991. Ground-motion attenuation equations for earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone. Earthquake Spectra, 7: 210-236.
Griffith A A. 1920. The phenomena of rupture and flow in solids. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. , Ser. A, 221:163-198.
GSHAP (Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program. 2002). http:// seismo/ethz. ch/GSHAP.
Idriss I M. 1995. An overview of earthquake ground motions pertinent to seismic zonation, Proceedings Volume Ⅲ of the Fifth International Conference on Seismic Zonation, October 17-19, Nice French Riviera.
Jonathan E. 1996. Some aspects of seismicity in Zimbabwe and eastern and southern Africa, M. Sc. Thesis, Institute of Solid Earth Physics, University of Bergen, Norway, 100pp.
Kanamori H. 1977. The energy release in great earthquakes. J. Geo-phys. Res. , 82: 2981-2987.
Kostrov B. 1974. Seismic moment and energy of earthquakes, and seismic flow of rock. Izv. , Acad. Sci. , USSR, Phys. Solid Earth (English Transl. ) , 1: 23 -40.
Midzi V, D J Hlatywayo, L S Chapola, et al. 2002. Seismic hazard assessment in eastern and southern Africa. http://seismo. ethz. ch/gs-hap/earifl/report. html.
Nuttli O W. 1986. Yield estimates of Nevada test site explosions obtained from seismic Lg waves. J. Geophys. Res. , 91:2137-2151.
Sadigh K, Chang C-Y, Egan J A, et al. 1997. Attenuation relationships for shallow crustal earthquakes based on California strong motion data. Seism. Res. Lett. , 68(1):180-189.
Spudich P, Joyner W B, Lindh A G, Boore D M, Margaris B M and Fletcher J B. 1999. SEA99 - A revised ground motion prediction relation for use in extensional tectonic regimes. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. , 89(5) : 1156-1170.
Toro G R, N A Abrahamson and J F Schneider. 1997. Model of strong ground motions from earthquakes in central and eastern North America: Best estimates and uncertainties. Seism. Res. Lett. , 68(1): 41-57.
Twesigomwe E. 1997. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Uganda, Ph.D. Thesis, Makarere University, Uganda.
Youngs R R and Coppersmith K J. 1985. Implications of fault slip rates and earthquake recurrence models to probabilistic seismic hazard estimates. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. , 75 : 939-964.
Youngs R R, Chiou S-J, Silva W J, el al. 1997. Strong ground motion attenuation relationships for subduction zone earthquakes. Seism. Res. Lett. , 68(1) : 58-73.
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