高拱坝安全分析中的不确定性因素研究
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摘要
为解决高拱坝确定性评价的弊端,综合应用概率统计理论、结构可靠性原理与风险分析等非确定性方法进行高拱坝安全分析。利用统计推理与假设检验研究了影响高拱坝失效的洪水水位、地震加速度及材料参数的分布规律与估计量的算法,利用二阶矩法计算了高拱坝失效模式的发生概率。分别利用确定性与非确定性方法对某高拱坝进行了安全评价,通过比较表明:利用失效概率、风险值两个指标对高拱坝进行安全评价可以兼顾安全性、经济性的平衡。
A suggestion is made to solve the problems by means of integrated application of such nondeterministic approaches as probability statistics theory,structural reliability principle,as well as risk analysis.By means of statistical inference and hypothesis test,a study is made of the distribution regularity and estimate algorithm of such factors causing high arch dam failure as flood level,seismic acceleration and material parameters.The occurrence probability of high arch dam failure mode is calculated by means of second-moment.A safety evaluation is made to a high arch dam by means of both deterministic and nondeterministic approaches and the comparison shows that applying both failure probability and risk value to high arch dam safety evaluation is desirable in terms of both safety and economic aspect.
A suggestion is made to solve the problems by means of integrated application of such nondeterministic approaches as probability statistics theory,structural reliability principle,as well as risk analysis.By means of statistical inference and hypothesis test,a study is made of the distribution regularity and estimate algorithm of such factors causing high arch dam failure as flood level,seismic acceleration and material parameters.The occurrence probability of high arch dam failure mode is calculated by means of second-moment.A safety evaluation is made to a high arch dam by means of both deterministic and nondeterministic approaches and the comparison shows that applying both failure probability and risk value to high arch dam safety evaluation is desirable in terms of both safety and economic aspect.
引文
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[4]袁凡凡,栾茂田,闫澍旺.非均质介质破坏机制及承载力的有限元分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(6):929-933.
[5]杨庆生,杨卫.断裂过程的有限元模拟[J].计算力学学报,1997,14(4):407-412.
[6]吴清高,张明,姚振汉.混凝土重力坝边界元可靠度计算[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2000,22(6):70-73.
[7]卓家寿,章青.不连续介质力学问题的界面元法[M].北京:科学出版社,2000.30-39.
[8]张玉军,朱维申.小湾水电站左岸坝前堆积体在自然状态下稳定性的平面离散元与有限元分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,1999,18(5):497-502.
[9]潘家铮.建筑物的抗滑稳定与滑坡分析[M].北京:水利出版社,1980.41-43.
[10]任青文,傅树红.高拱坝沿建基面抗滑稳定性的分析方法研究[J].水利学报,2002,12(2):1-7.
[11]周伟,常晓林.溪洛渡高拱坝渐进破坏过程仿真分析和稳定安全度研究[J].四川大学学报,2002,34(4):46-50.
[12]姜小兰,赖跃强.构皮滩双曲拱坝三维地质力学模型试验研究[J].长江科学院院报,1997,14(3):27-30.
[13]陆述远.岩基重力坝抗滑稳定分析[A].水工结构专题[C].北京:水利电力出版社,1995.16-78.
[14]陈进,黄薇.混凝土重力坝抗滑稳定安全系数与安全度探讨[J].长江科学院院报,1995,12(3):1-7.
[15]刘玉斌,王光远.工程结构广义可靠度理论[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.2-30.
[16]麻荣永.土石坝风险分析方法及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.3-4.
[17]戴维.维尔琼斯.对分析预报中心发展统计学方法的建议[J].国际地震动态,1997(4):8-12.
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