早期地震预警方法研究现状及展望
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摘要
地震是破坏性最大的自然灾害之一,它具有突发性、毁灭性、次灾严重、无灾有害等特点,会给人们的生命财产造成巨大的损失。为了达到减轻地震灾害的目的,除了加强工程结构抗震设计外,人们最先想到的就是地震预报。如果能预知地震的发生时间与地点而先将人员撤离地震区、关闭次生灾害源,无疑会将地震灾害降到最低。但地震预报这个世界性的科学难题在短期内很难取得突破性进展。为此,许多国家进而投资发展地震预警系统和地震应急控制系统。本文对国内外地震预警方法研究现状进行了阐述,并对地震预警的发展趋势进行了展望。
Earthquake is one of the most destructive natural disasters,it has the character of suddenness、 fatality、 Serious secondary disaster and non-disaster but to be harmful.In order to mitigate earthquake disasters,besides strengthening the engineering structure,the earthquake prediction is the first choice for the people,if we can predict the earthquake's time and location in advance,then we are able to evacuate the people from the source region and avoid the secondary disaster to minimize the earthquake disaster.As the earthquake prediction is very difficult to make significant progress,so many countries turn to develop earthquake early warning system and earthquake emergency system.In this paper,the authors analyze the current development of the earthquake early warning system in the world.Its prospects are also discussed briefly.
Earthquake is one of the most destructive natural disasters,it has the character of suddenness、 fatality、 Serious secondary disaster and non-disaster but to be harmful.In order to mitigate earthquake disasters,besides strengthening the engineering structure,the earthquake prediction is the first choice for the people,if we can predict the earthquake's time and location in advance,then we are able to evacuate the people from the source region and avoid the secondary disaster to minimize the earthquake disaster.As the earthquake prediction is very difficult to make significant progress,so many countries turn to develop earthquake early warning system and earthquake emergency system.In this paper,the authors analyze the current development of the earthquake early warning system in the world.Its prospects are also discussed briefly.
引文
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[2]李山有,金星,马强,等.地震预警系统与智能应急控制系统研究.世界地震工程,2004,20(4):21-26
[3]Nakamura Y.Development of the earthquake early-warning system for the Shinkansen,some recent earthquake engineering research and practical in Japan.The Japanese National Committee of the International Association for Earthquake Engineering,1984,224-238
[4]Espinosa-Aranda J,Jimezez A,Ibarrola G,et al.Mexico City seismic alert system.Seism Res Lett,1995,66:42-53
[5]Allen R Mand HKanamori.The potential for earthquake early warning in Southern California.Science,2003,300:786-789
[6]Teng TL,Wu L,Shin T C,et al.One minute after:strong-motion map,effective epicenter,and effective magnitude.Bull Seism Soc Am,1997,87:1209-1219
[7]Wu Y M,Chuang J K,Shin TC,et al.Development of an intergrated seismic early warning system in Taiwan-case for Hualien earthquakes.Terr Atmo Ocean Sci,1999,10:719-736
[8]Wu Y M,Teng T L.Near real-time magnitude determination for large crustal earthquakes.Tectonophysics,2004,390:205-216
[9]金星,瘳诗荣,陈绯雯,等.区域数字地震台网实时速报系统研究.地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(1):64-71
[10]陈顒,陈运泰,张国民,等.“十一.五”期间中国重大地震灾害预测预警和防治对策.灾害学,2005,20(1):1-14
[11]Rydelek P and Pujol J.Real-Time Seismic Warning with a Two-Station Subarray.Bull Seism Soc Am,2004,94(4):1546-1550
[12]Wu Y M and Teng T L.A Virtual Subnetwork Approach to Earthquake Early Warning.Bull Seism Soc Am,2002,92(5):2008-2018
[13]Wu Y Mand Shin TC,Tsai Y B.Quick and Reliable Determination of Magnitude for Seismic Early Warning.Bull Seism Soc Am,1998,88(5):1254-1259
[14]Wu Y M and Kanamori H.Experiment on an Onsite Early Warning Method for the Taiwan Early Warning Sys-tem.Bull Seism Soc Am,2005,95(1):347-353
[15]Cecily J W.On the Properties of Predominant-Period Estimators for Earthquake Early Warning.Bull Seism Soc Am,2006,96(5):1961-1965
[16]Nakamura Y.On the Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm Sys-tem(UrEDAS).The Japanese Proc.9th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering VII,Tokyo,Japan,2-9August1988,673-678
[17]Wu Y M.Kanamori H.Rapid Assessment of Damage Potential of Earthquakes in Taiwan from the Beginning of P Waves.Bull Seism Soc Am,2005,95(3):1181-1185
[18]Toshikazu O,Kimitoshi A,Shin′ya Tet al,A NewMethod of Quickly Estimatin Epicentral Distance and Mag-nitude from a Single Seismic Record.Bull Seism Soc Am,2003,93:526-532
[19]Andrew B L and Allen R M.Single-Station Earthquake Characterization for Early Warning.Bull Seism Soc Am,2005,95(6):2029-2039
[20]廖旭,黄河.企业地震预警系统应用研究.地震工程与工程震动,2002,22(6):142-149
[2]李山有,金星,马强,等.地震预警系统与智能应急控制系统研究.世界地震工程,2004,20(4):21-26
[3]Nakamura Y.Development of the earthquake early-warning system for the Shinkansen,some recent earthquake engineering research and practical in Japan.The Japanese National Committee of the International Association for Earthquake Engineering,1984,224-238
[4]Espinosa-Aranda J,Jimezez A,Ibarrola G,et al.Mexico City seismic alert system.Seism Res Lett,1995,66:42-53
[5]Allen R Mand HKanamori.The potential for earthquake early warning in Southern California.Science,2003,300:786-789
[6]Teng TL,Wu L,Shin T C,et al.One minute after:strong-motion map,effective epicenter,and effective magnitude.Bull Seism Soc Am,1997,87:1209-1219
[7]Wu Y M,Chuang J K,Shin TC,et al.Development of an intergrated seismic early warning system in Taiwan-case for Hualien earthquakes.Terr Atmo Ocean Sci,1999,10:719-736
[8]Wu Y M,Teng T L.Near real-time magnitude determination for large crustal earthquakes.Tectonophysics,2004,390:205-216
[9]金星,瘳诗荣,陈绯雯,等.区域数字地震台网实时速报系统研究.地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(1):64-71
[10]陈顒,陈运泰,张国民,等.“十一.五”期间中国重大地震灾害预测预警和防治对策.灾害学,2005,20(1):1-14
[11]Rydelek P and Pujol J.Real-Time Seismic Warning with a Two-Station Subarray.Bull Seism Soc Am,2004,94(4):1546-1550
[12]Wu Y M and Teng T L.A Virtual Subnetwork Approach to Earthquake Early Warning.Bull Seism Soc Am,2002,92(5):2008-2018
[13]Wu Y Mand Shin TC,Tsai Y B.Quick and Reliable Determination of Magnitude for Seismic Early Warning.Bull Seism Soc Am,1998,88(5):1254-1259
[14]Wu Y M and Kanamori H.Experiment on an Onsite Early Warning Method for the Taiwan Early Warning Sys-tem.Bull Seism Soc Am,2005,95(1):347-353
[15]Cecily J W.On the Properties of Predominant-Period Estimators for Earthquake Early Warning.Bull Seism Soc Am,2006,96(5):1961-1965
[16]Nakamura Y.On the Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm Sys-tem(UrEDAS).The Japanese Proc.9th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering VII,Tokyo,Japan,2-9August1988,673-678
[17]Wu Y M.Kanamori H.Rapid Assessment of Damage Potential of Earthquakes in Taiwan from the Beginning of P Waves.Bull Seism Soc Am,2005,95(3):1181-1185
[18]Toshikazu O,Kimitoshi A,Shin′ya Tet al,A NewMethod of Quickly Estimatin Epicentral Distance and Mag-nitude from a Single Seismic Record.Bull Seism Soc Am,2003,93:526-532
[19]Andrew B L and Allen R M.Single-Station Earthquake Characterization for Early Warning.Bull Seism Soc Am,2005,95(6):2029-2039
[20]廖旭,黄河.企业地震预警系统应用研究.地震工程与工程震动,2002,22(6):142-149
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