地震预测研究与展望
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摘要
概要介绍了近年来国际上就地震预测所展开的争论，分析了VAN方法所反映的地震前兆研究动向；就地震前兆观测与数据资料库建设、地震前兆的统计分析、地震的动力学预测、地震预测算法的发展等方面，论述了国际地震预测研究的进展；并概略地介绍了中国的地震预测研究进展．
This paper introduces briefly the recent argument of earthquake prediction among seismologist in the world. It outlines the trend of earthquake precursory study on the basis of analysis of VAN prediction method. The progress in earthquake prediction research is summarized by the aspects of earthquake precursory observation and data collection, statistical analysis of precursors, dynamical forecasting and the algorithms of earthquake prediction. The progress of earthquake prediction in China is also summarized.
This paper introduces briefly the recent argument of earthquake prediction among seismologist in the world. It outlines the trend of earthquake precursory study on the basis of analysis of VAN prediction method. The progress in earthquake prediction research is summarized by the aspects of earthquake precursory observation and data collection, statistical analysis of precursors, dynamical forecasting and the algorithms of earthquake prediction. The progress of earthquake prediction in China is also summarized.
引文
[1] 陈章立，中国地震预报的现状和展望，中国地展研究，2（1）：159—170，1987．
[2] 陈 ，板块内部地震预报研究，地球科学进展，6（1）：17—20，1991.
[3] 张国民，从第21届国际大地测量和地球物理联合会（IUGG）看地震预报研究的国际动向，地震，16（1）：99—104， 1996.
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[5]Bakun， W. H．， Lindh， A． G， The Parkfield. California, earthquake prediction experiment, science, 229：619—624，
[6] Roeloffs, E., Langbein，J., The earthquake precdiction experiment at Parkfield, California, Rev. Geophys., 32：315—336199
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[9] Geller，R., Shake up for earthquake prediction，Nature， 352： 275—276， 1991.
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[13]National Academy of Sciences Colloquium, Earthquake Prediction: The Scientific Challenge, February 10—11，1995.
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[17] 卢振恒，日本有关地震预报的辩论及其影响，国际地震动态，11：6—10，1992.
[18] 李忠友，地震预测的辩论及其发展，国际地震动态，12：18—22，1994.
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[23] Hayakawa, M., Fujinawa, Y. eds.,Electromagnetic phenomena related to earthquake prediction, Tokyo: TerraScientific shing
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shear strain rate, Pure. Appl. Geophys., 144: 19-37, 1995.
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activity, 地震地质, 17 (1): 32-34, 1995
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[2] 陈 ，板块内部地震预报研究，地球科学进展，6（1）：17—20，1991.
[3] 张国民，从第21届国际大地测量和地球物理联合会（IUGG）看地震预报研究的国际动向，地震，16（1）：99—104， 1996.
[4]John， M., Bean, C．J., Temporally unstable recurrence of earthquakes due to breaks in fractal scaling, Science,266： 410-2， 1994.
[5]Bakun， W. H．， Lindh， A． G， The Parkfield. California, earthquake prediction experiment, science, 229：619—624，
[6] Roeloffs, E., Langbein，J., The earthquake precdiction experiment at Parkfield, California, Rev. Geophys., 32：315—336199
[7] Swinbanks, D., Kobe earthquake shatters faith in engineers, Nature, 373： 273， 1995．
[8] Li Hui，Jeffrey, M．，China's campaign to predict quakes, Science, 273： 1484—1486，1996.
[9] Geller，R., Shake up for earthquake prediction，Nature， 352： 275—276， 1991.
[10]Geller，R，The role of seismology, Nature, 373： 554，1995.
[11]Swinbanks, D., Earthquake‘forecasters’face their critics in Japan, Nature, 370：9， 1994.
[12]Hamada, K., Unpredictable earthquakes, Nature, 353： 611—612， 1991.
[13]National Academy of Sciences Colloquium, Earthquake Prediction: The Scientific Challenge, February 10—11，1995.
[14]Reich, K．，Scientists upbeat on earthquake predictions, Los Angeles Times, December 22 1996．
[15] Geller， R．，Earthquaker：Thinking about the Unpredictable, EOS Trans. AGU, 78： 63－66， 1997．
[16] Geller，R．，Jackson, D., Kagan, Y., Mulargia, F., Earthquakes cannot be predicted, Science, 275： 1616－1617，1997．
[17] 卢振恒，日本有关地震预报的辩论及其影响，国际地震动态，11：6—10，1992.
[18] 李忠友，地震预测的辩论及其发展，国际地震动态，12：18—22，1994.
[19] 希 岳，几位科学家联合撰文断言：地震根本无法预测，科技日报，三版，1997－03-09.
[20] Swinbanks, D， Kobe disaster divides earthquake researchers, Nature, 373： 373， 1995.
[21] Swinbanks， D., Earthquake prediction‘likely to grow’after new review, Nature, 374： 205， 1995．
[22] Lazarus, D., Note on a possible origin for seismic electric signals, Tectonophysics, 224：265—267，1993．
[23] Hayakawa, M., Fujinawa, Y. eds.,Electromagnetic phenomena related to earthquake prediction, Tokyo: TerraScientific shing
[24] Masood, E., Greek earthquake stirs controversy over claims for prediction method, Nature, 375：617，1995.
[25] Swinbanks, D，Japan jumps on board the VAN wagon, Nature, 375：617，1995.
[26] Nauao，T., Uyeshima, M，Uyeda, S., An independent check of VAN's criteria for signal recognition, Geophys.Res. Lett.,23：1441—1444， 1996.
[27] Kagan，Y．Y., Jackson, D. D., Varotsos, P., Statistical tests of VAN earthquake predictions; comments andreflections；iscussion and reply，Geophys. Res. Lett., 23：1433—1440， 1996.
[28] Aceves， R． L．， Park，S. K．，Strauss， D. J. et al，Statistical evaluation of the VAN method using the historic
earthquake catalog in Greece；discussion and reply, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23：1425—1431， 1996.
[29] Honkura, Y., Tanaka， N., Probability of earthquake occurrence in Greece with special reference to the VANpredictions; discussion and reply, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23：1417－1423， 1996．
[30] Rhoades, D．A．， Evison，F．F., Varotsos, P. et al., The VAN earthquake predictions; discussion and reply，Geophys. Res. Lett., 23： 1371—1378， 1996.
[31] Jackson, D. D., Varotsos, P., Lazaridou, M. et al., Earthquak prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method; discussion and reply, Geophys. Rev. Lett., 23: 1363-1370, 1996.
[32] Wyss, M., P., Eftaxias, K., Probability of chance correlations of earthquakes with predictions in areas of heterogeneous seismicity rate; the VAN case; discussion and reply, Geophys. Res. Lett. 23: 1302-1314, 1996.
[33] Wyss, M., Varotsos, P., Eftaxias, K. et al., Inaccuracies in seismicity and magnitude data used by Varotsos and coworkers; discussion and reply, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23: 1295-1298, 1996.
[34] Varotsos, P., Eftaxias, K., Vallianatos, F. et al., basic principles for evaluating an earthquake prediction method,Geophys. Res. Lett., 23: 1295-1298, 1996.
[35] Larson, K. M., Lisowske, M., Strain accumulation in the Shumagin Islands: results of initial GPS easurements,Geophys. Res. Lett., 21: 489—492, 1994.
[36] Fujii, Y., Characteristics of horizontal crustal deformation in Japan as deduced from frequency distribution of maximum
shear strain rate, Pure. Appl. Geophys., 144: 19-37, 1995.
[37] Zhao Yulin, Qian Fuye, Geoelectric precursors to strong earthquakes in China, Tectonophysics, 233, 99-113.1994.
[38] Fryer, B., Electromagnetic Heresy: Gallimore on earthquakes and super-conductivity, Geo-Monitor: Newsletter, (3):62-63,1993.
[39] Heinicke, J., Koch, U., Martinelli, G., CO2 and radon measurements in the Vogtland area (Germany); a contribution to earthquake prediction research, Geophys. Res. Lett., 22: 771-774.1995.
[40] Virk, H. S., Baljinder, S., Radon recording of Uttarkashi earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 21: 737-40, 1994.
[41] King, C. Y., Koizumi, N., Kitagawa, Y., Hydrogeochemical anomalies and the 1995 Kobe earthquake, science,269: 38-9, 1995.
[42] 上官志冠, A study on deep-seated CO2 discharge for earthquake prediction, 地震地质, 17 (3): 2宫4-217, 1995.
[43] Wang Xianbin, Chen Jianfa, Xu Sheng, Geochemical characteristics of gases from hot springs in seismic region, Scientia
Sinica, B37 (2): 242-249, 1994.
[44] Tsunogai, U., Wakita, H., Precursory chemical changes in ground water: Kobe earthquake, Japan, Science, 269:61-63, 1995.
[45] Hu Yutai, Zhang Yusong, Li Jianhua, The relation between veriations in concentration of trace elements and seismic
activity, 地震地质, 17 (1): 32-34, 1995
[46] Jones, L. M., Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities; accounting for the Landers earthquake, Bull.Seism. Soc. Amer., 84: 892-899, 1994.
[47] Wyss, M., Westerhaus, M., Berckhemer, H. et. al., Precursory seismic quiescence in the Mudurnu Valley, North
Anotolian fault zone, Turkey, Geophys. J. Int., 123: 117-124, 1995.
[48] 朱传镇、王琳瑛，前震牲及其识别，地球物理学报，39 (1): 80—88, 1996.
[49] harris, R. A., Simpson, R. W., Reasenberg, P. A., Influence of static stress changes on earthquake locations in Southern California, Nature, 375: 221-224, 1995.
[50] Kerr, R. A., At the heart of earthquakes, seismologists look for pulse, Science, 268: 1274-1275,1995.
[51] Costain, J. K., Bollinger, G. A., Climatic changes, streamflow and long-term forecasting of intraplate seismicity, J.
Geodyn., 22: 97-118,1996.
[52] Robertson, M. C., Sammis, C. G., Sahimi, M., A. J., Fractal analysis of three-dimensional spatial distributha of earthquakes with a percolationinterpretation, J. Geophys. Res., B100: 609-620, 1995.
[53] Stavrakakis, G. N., Drakopoulos, J., Bayesian probabilities of earthquake occurrences in Greece and surrounding areas, Pure. Appl. Geophys., 144: 307-319, 1995.
[54] Tsuruoka, H., Ohtake, M., Sato, H., Statistical test of the tidal triggering of earthquakes; contribution of the ocean
contribution of the ocean tide loading effect, Geophys. J. Int., 122: 183-194, 1995.
[55] Godano C., Caruso, V., Multifractal analysis of earthquake catalogues, Geophys. J. Int., 121: 385-392, 1995.
[56] nishenko, S. P., Barton, C. C., Scaling laws for natural disaster fatalities, Open File Report-U. S. Geological
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