印度尼西亚巨震对华东地震形势的影响
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摘要
根据印度板块和缅甸次板块运动GPS观测资料,分析了印度尼西亚巨震的发震构造背景,震后印、缅板块的正应力减小,剪应力相对增大,剪应力是对华东地震形势产生影响的主要动力源。简单统计印缅板块地震后3年内华东地区发生中强震的对应组数为21组,利用概率增益公式得出印、缅板块地震和华东地区中强震的对应关系是有物理基础的对应,而不是随机的对应。通过β分布函数预测华东地区未来3年发生5级以上地震的概率为0.67,风险经验概率为0.65。
Based on GPS data that Indian tectonic plate and Burma tectonic plate are moving,the earthquake structure background of large earthquakes in Indonesia is analyzed.The normal stress decreased and share stress increased in Indian and Burma tectonic Plates after large earthquakes,share stress is the main dynamic source influence on earthquake tendency in east China.Simple statistics show that there are 21 sets of corresponding moderately strong earthquakes occurred in East China in 3 years after India and Burma tectonic plate earthquakes.By using the formula of probability gain,we can know that this correspondence earthquake relation between East China and Indian and Burma tectonic plates is a correspondent with physical function,not random correspondent relation.Through β distribution function,we can predict that the probability of earthquakes with M_S≥5.0 is 0.67 in future 3 years in East China.The risk probability is 0.65.
Based on GPS data that Indian tectonic plate and Burma tectonic plate are moving,the earthquake structure background of large earthquakes in Indonesia is analyzed.The normal stress decreased and share stress increased in Indian and Burma tectonic Plates after large earthquakes,share stress is the main dynamic source influence on earthquake tendency in east China.Simple statistics show that there are 21 sets of corresponding moderately strong earthquakes occurred in East China in 3 years after India and Burma tectonic plate earthquakes.By using the formula of probability gain,we can know that this correspondence earthquake relation between East China and Indian and Burma tectonic plates is a correspondent with physical function,not random correspondent relation.Through β distribution function,we can predict that the probability of earthquakes with M_S≥5.0 is 0.67 in future 3 years in East China.The risk probability is 0.65.
引文
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[2]张国民.90年代中国地震大形势研究[A].一九八九年度中国地震趋势研究报告[C].北京:地震出版社,1988.
[3]张国民,李献智,耿鲁明.印度板块北边界地震活动和中国大陆地震[J].地震,1994,14(3):1-9.
[4]于泳,洪汉净,刘培洵,等.全球大地震时空分布与动力学机制的初步研究[J].地学前缘,2003,10(supp1):5-10.
[5]梁凯利.2004年12月26日印尼8.7级地震综述[J].国际地震动态,2005,(1):1-5.
[6]吕培苓.湖北西部地区小震活动与台湾强震关系研究[J].地震,2004,24(1):71-75.
[7]李文英,王秀英.华北地区与日本海沟地震的相关性分析[J].地震,1996,16(3):219-224.
[8]徐纪人,赵志新,河野芳辉,等.日本南海海漕地震区域应力场及其板块构造动力学特征[J].地球物理学报,2003,46(4):488-494.
[9]Takahashi H,Suzuki H,Ohtake M.Deep Borehole Observation of Crustal Activity in the Metropol-itan area of Japan[A].Earthquake prediction[C].Paris:Terra Scientific Publishing Company,Unesco,1984.67-78.
[10]魏淳译.由观测复发间隔得到的经验地震概率[J].世界地震译丛,1994,(5):1-3.
[11]张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.中国大陆活动地块与强震活动关系[J].中国科学D辑地球科学,2004,34(7):591-599.
[12]黄立人,郭良迁.地球表层运动和变形的GPS描述[J].地学前缘,2003,10(Supp1):17-21.
[13]陈学忠.2004年12月26日印尼8.7级地震及其对我国大陆地震趋势的影响[J].国际地震动态,2005,(1):26-30.
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