由汶川地震引发对中国地震预报的方法学反思
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摘要
从2008-05-12四川汶川地震出发,对地震预报预防进行深刻的反思科学方法,针对Geller等人1997年在科学杂志(Science)提出的地震不可预报等论点,就地震是否可以预报展开了据实的比较性探讨分析;通过跨学科的论证和说理,提出了在中国地震预报继承和创新中,坚持科学发展,"群专结合"的正确方向。
A brief reflection of the Wenchuan Earthquake in May,2008 and reasoning on the predictability of earthquakes are conducted in this paper. An objective and comparative discussion and analysis is brought forward based on the argument that "earthquakes cannot be predicted" ,presented in Science by Geller etc. in 1997. Through an interdisciplinary reasoning and discussion,the authors of this paper believe that the scientific development direction as well as "working combined experts with public participation" principle should be firmly promoted in an earthquake prediction.
A brief reflection of the Wenchuan Earthquake in May,2008 and reasoning on the predictability of earthquakes are conducted in this paper. An objective and comparative discussion and analysis is brought forward based on the argument that "earthquakes cannot be predicted" ,presented in Science by Geller etc. in 1997. Through an interdisciplinary reasoning and discussion,the authors of this paper believe that the scientific development direction as well as "working combined experts with public participation" principle should be firmly promoted in an earthquake prediction.
引文
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[19]Long Xiaoxia,Yan Junping,Sun Hu,et al.Study on earthquake tendency in sichuan-yunnan region based on commensurability[J].Journal ofCatastrophology,2006,21(3):81～84[龙小霞,延军平,孙虎,等.基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究[J].灾害学,2006,21(3):81～84]
[20]Caijing.Geng Qingguo:The greater earthquake is,the easier to be forecasted.http://www.caijing.com.cn/20080604/67538.sht-ml.2008-06-04;Li Shihui Geng Qingguo's tears dry[EB/OL].http://paowang.com/cgi-bin/forum/viewpost.cgi?which=inn&id=279587[财经网.2008-06-04.耿庆国:地震越大越易预测.http://www.caijing.com.cn/20080604/67538.shtml;李世辉.耿庆国欲哭无泪[EB/OL].http://paowang.com/cgi-bin/forum/viewpost.cgi?which=inn&id=279587]
[2]Xinhua.Wenchuan Earthquake’s Magnitude Was Revised to8.0,Maximum Intensity Was11Degrees[EB/OL].http://news.xin-huanet.com/tech/2008-05/19/content_8203755.htm.2008-05-19[新华网.汶川地震震级被修订为8.0级最大烈度11度[EB/OL].http://news.xinhuanet.com/tech/2008-05/19/con-tent_8203755.htm.2008-05-19]
[3]Xinhua.It Has Confirmed that Wenchuan Earthquake Killed69,200People[EB/OL].http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-07/29/content_8840652.htm.2008-07-29[新华网.四川汶川地震已确认69200人遇难[EB/OL].http://news.xinhua-net.com/newscenter/2008-07/29/content_8840652.htm.2008-07-29]
[4]Xinhua.It was estimated that the total number of victims will be more than80,000people in wenchuan earthquake[EB/OL].ht-tp://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-06/24/content_8430174.htm.2008-06-24[新华网.四川汶川特大地震遇难总人数估计将超过8万人[EB/OL].http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-06/24/content_8430174.htm.2008-06-24]
[5]Alistair Barr.Losses from China quake may top$20billion[EB/OL].http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/losses-china-quake-may-top/story.aspx?guid=%7B676DBEB5-625F-4F56-98EC-EC7B66C630DD%7D.2008-05-14
[6]Robert J.Geller,David D.Jackson,Yan Y.Kagan,and Francesco Mulargia,Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted[J].Science,1997,275(5306):1616
[7]Global Times.A7.2Magnitude Earthquake Struck Japan,The Ear-ly Warning System10Seconds Ahead of Forecast[EB/OL].ht-tp://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2008-06/14/content_8368866.htm.2008-06-14[环球时报.日本7.2级强震预警系统提前10秒预报[EB/OL].http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2008-06/14/content_8368866.htm.2008-06-14]
[8]Edward D.Lorenz.Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1963,20(3):130～141
[9]Alexander L.Densmore,Michael A.Ellis,Yong Li,et al.Active Tectonics of the Beichuan and Pengguan Faults at the Eastern Mar-gin of the Tibetan[J].Plateau.Tectonics,2007,26:TC4005
[10]Fenglin Niu,Paul G.Silver,Thomas M.Daley,et al.Preseismic velocity changes observed from active source monitoring at the Parkfield SAFOD drill site[J].Nature,2008,454:204～208
[11]Geng Qingguo.Study on the Relationship Between Drought and Earthquakes in China[M].China Ocean Press,1985[耿庆国.中国旱震关系研究[M].海洋出版社,1985]
[12]Qiang Zhuji,Xu Xiudeng.Satellite thermal infrared anomaly-im-minent earthquake precursors[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,1990,35(17):1324～1327[强祖基,徐秀登.卫星热红外异常———临震前兆[J].科学通报,1990,35(17):1324～1327]
[13]Ye Minquan,Wu Qiyong.Study on the relationship between Satel-lite thermal infrared anomaly and strong earthquake[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,1994,39(22):2074～2077[叶民权,吴其勇.卫星热红外异常与强震关系研究实例[J].科学通报,1994,39(22):2074～2077]
[14]Earthquake Administration of Hebei Province.Xingtai Earthquake in1966[M].China Earthquake Press,1986[河北省地震局.一九六六年邢台地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1986]
[15]Ocean Marine Geology Department of Tongji University.Eearth-quake and Its Prevention[M].Tongji University,1976[同济大学海洋地质系.地震及其预防[M].同济大学,1976]
[16]China Press USA.There is No People be Killed in Qinglong Coun-ty,Chinese Expert Wang Chengmin of the United Nations Intro-duced1976Tangshan Earthquake Prediction Experience[EB/OL].http://hi.baidu.com/mayi68/blog/item/1214321fa43489cda6866939.html.1996-04-21[侨报.唐山地震时青龙县无一人伤亡—中国专家汪成民联合国介绍预报地震经验[EB/OL].http://hi.baidu.com/mayi68/blog/item/1214321fa43489cda6866939.html.1996-04-21]
[17]Sina.com.Scientists Introduced"The Life-Saving10Seconds"before the Earthquake(Memoir).http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2006-07-20/193310487152.shtml;Gzs.cn reproduced.Scien-tists Introduced"The Life-Saving10Seconds"before the Earth-quake(Memoir)[EB/OL].http://www.gzs.cn/html/2006/07/21/45527-2.html.2006-07-21[新浪网.科学家介绍大地震来临前“救命的十秒”(实录).http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2006-07-20/193310487152.shtml.2006-07-20.;中国高中生网转载.科学家介绍大地震来临前“救命的十秒”(实录)[EB/OL].http://www.gzs.cn/html/2006/07/21/45527-2.ht-ml.2006-07-21]
[18]Weng Hongbo.The Basis of Forecast Theory[M].Petroleum In-dustry Press,1984[翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984]
[19]Long Xiaoxia,Yan Junping,Sun Hu,et al.Study on earthquake tendency in sichuan-yunnan region based on commensurability[J].Journal ofCatastrophology,2006,21(3):81～84[龙小霞,延军平,孙虎,等.基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究[J].灾害学,2006,21(3):81～84]
[20]Caijing.Geng Qingguo:The greater earthquake is,the easier to be forecasted.http://www.caijing.com.cn/20080604/67538.sht-ml.2008-06-04;Li Shihui Geng Qingguo's tears dry[EB/OL].http://paowang.com/cgi-bin/forum/viewpost.cgi?which=inn&id=279587[财经网.2008-06-04.耿庆国:地震越大越易预测.http://www.caijing.com.cn/20080604/67538.shtml;李世辉.耿庆国欲哭无泪[EB/OL].http://paowang.com/cgi-bin/forum/viewpost.cgi?which=inn&id=279587]
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