破坏性地震短期临震预测的一个有效方法——关于短期临震气象要素五项指标异常
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摘要
为探索MS≥5.0级破坏性地震的短期临震预测问题,作者从1973年起潜心研究此问题,并于1975年5月正式提出在震前一个月之内,将会出现日平均气压、日平均气温、日最高气温,日最低气温和日降水量五项指标的异常,这是从气象要素上表现出来的短期前兆异常,这是孕震过程中的短期临震气象效应表现。在唐山7.8级大地震发生前的关键时刻,1976年7月中旬和下旬初,作者依据旱震关系和短期气象要素五项指标异常,积极推动并参与了北京市地震队七大异常的震情告急活动。事实表明在唐山MS7.8级地震短期临震告急和宁河MS6.9级地震短期临震预报上,气象要素五指标异常,经受住了短期临震预报实践的检验。
In order to explore the approach of short-term prediction of destructive earthq uake M_S≥5.0, since 1973, the author of this paper has made relative rese arch with great concentration. In May 1975, he formally presented his viewpoint that, during the month prior to the earthquake, such five meteorological indicat ors including the daily average air pressure, daily average temperature, daily h ighest temperature, daily lowest temperature, and daily precipitation volume wil l show abnormity. This is short-term precursory abnormity shown in meteorologic al factors and is reflection of short-term meteorological effects in the proces s of the earthquake gestation. At the crucial period prior to the Tangshan Earthquake M_S7.8, in the mid -and early days of late July, 1976, the author proactively motivated and partic ipated in the earthquake emergency reporting on seven precursory abnormities of Beijing Municipal Earthquake Team according to the relationship of drought and e arthquake and the five indicators of short-term meteorological factors. Facts h ave proved that, in the process of the short-term earthquake emergency reportin g of Tangshan Earthquake M_S7.8 and short-term precursory predication of Ninghe Earthquake M_S6.9, the five meteorological indicators showed abnorm ity and the above-mentioned approach of earthquake prediction has endured the t est of practice.
In order to explore the approach of short-term prediction of destructive earthq uake M_S≥5.0, since 1973, the author of this paper has made relative rese arch with great concentration. In May 1975, he formally presented his viewpoint that, during the month prior to the earthquake, such five meteorological indicat ors including the daily average air pressure, daily average temperature, daily h ighest temperature, daily lowest temperature, and daily precipitation volume wil l show abnormity. This is short-term precursory abnormity shown in meteorologic al factors and is reflection of short-term meteorological effects in the proces s of the earthquake gestation. At the crucial period prior to the Tangshan Earthquake M_S7.8, in the mid -and early days of late July, 1976, the author proactively motivated and partic ipated in the earthquake emergency reporting on seven precursory abnormities of Beijing Municipal Earthquake Team according to the relationship of drought and e arthquake and the five indicators of short-term meteorological factors. Facts h ave proved that, in the process of the short-term earthquake emergency reportin g of Tangshan Earthquake M_S7.8 and short-term precursory predication of Ninghe Earthquake M_S6.9, the five meteorological indicators showed abnorm ity and the above-mentioned approach of earthquake prediction has endured the t est of practice.
引文
[1]耿庆国.中国旱震关系研究.北京:海洋出版社,1985:176196
[2]叶叔华.陈述彭主编.特大自然灾害预测的新途径和新方法.北京:科学出版社,2002:8184
[2]叶叔华.陈述彭主编.特大自然灾害预测的新途径和新方法.北京:科学出版社,2002:8184
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