《基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究》之质疑
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摘要
本文采用发表于2006年的《基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究》一文所用的可公度法,对该文中的原始地震序列进行了系统的计算分析,并与随机序列进行了对比分析.结果表明:(1)该地震序列中蕴含的可公度频数较高(均值为50),而该文认为能够写出3组以上可公度式即可说明可公度性较好,根据是不足的;(2)本文对2000—2010年的11个年份进行可公度预测分析,其可公度频数统计(均值为43)显示,2008年(频数为44)并未表现出特殊性,而该文仅根据3个可公度式进行预测,是缺乏依据的;(3)将该地震序列与随机序列进行对比分析可知,该地震序列的可公度性并不强于(甚至弱于)随机序列,因而针对该地震序列进行的可公度预测是不可信的.综合以上分析,本文认为虽然该文的预测结论与2008年5月12日汶川大地震巧合,但因其研究过程和研究方法均存在明显不足之处,故所得结论难以令人信服.
This paper presents a systematic study of the same original earthquake series based on the same commensurability method as in the paper "Study on earthquake tendency in Sichuan-Yunnan region based on commensurability" published in 2006.The results show that,(1) The earthquake series contains higher commensurability frequency,with a mean value of 50;so,it is baseless that the series is believed to present good commensurability only by more than 3 groups of commensurability formulae in that paper.(2) The commensurability forecast for the 11 years between 2000 and 2010 shows that the year 2008 does not present any particularity,and the commensurability frequency of year 2008 is 44 while the mean commensurability frequency is 43;so,it is unfounded to forecast only by 3 commensurability formulae.(3) Comparison study shows that the commensurability of the earthquake series in question is not better(even worse) than the stochastic series;so,the commensurability forecasting based on the earthquake series is incredible.It can be concluded that although the forecast results in that paper coincide with of the Wenchuan earthquake on May 12,2008 by chance,its research procedure and methodology are questionable,and the conclusion is unbelievable.
This paper presents a systematic study of the same original earthquake series based on the same commensurability method as in the paper "Study on earthquake tendency in Sichuan-Yunnan region based on commensurability" published in 2006.The results show that,(1) The earthquake series contains higher commensurability frequency,with a mean value of 50;so,it is baseless that the series is believed to present good commensurability only by more than 3 groups of commensurability formulae in that paper.(2) The commensurability forecast for the 11 years between 2000 and 2010 shows that the year 2008 does not present any particularity,and the commensurability frequency of year 2008 is 44 while the mean commensurability frequency is 43;so,it is unfounded to forecast only by 3 commensurability formulae.(3) Comparison study shows that the commensurability of the earthquake series in question is not better(even worse) than the stochastic series;so,the commensurability forecasting based on the earthquake series is incredible.It can be concluded that although the forecast results in that paper coincide with of the Wenchuan earthquake on May 12,2008 by chance,its research procedure and methodology are questionable,and the conclusion is unbelievable.
引文
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[2]翁文波.预测学[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1996.
[3]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.
[4]翁文波.可公度性[J].地球物理学报,1981,24(2):151-154.Weng Wenbo.Commensurability[J].Chinese Journalof Geophysics,1981,24(2):151-154.(in Chinese)
[5]Sheskin D J.Handbook of parametric and nonparamet-ric statistical procedures[M].3rd ed.London:CRCPress,2006.
[6]Lilliefors H W.On the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test fornormality with mean and variance unknown[J].Journalof the American Statistical Association,1967,62(318):399-402.
[7]魏宗舒.概率论与数理统计教程[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1997.
[8]徐道一,王明太,耿庆国,等.翁文波院士的信息预测理论体系的创新性及其意义[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(4):1375-1379.Xu Daoyi,Wang Mingtai,Geng Qingguo,et al.Thecreativity of informative forecasting theory and its signif-icance[J].Progress in Geophysics,2007,22(4):1375-1379.(in Chinese)
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