如何看待我国地震预报研究在防震减灾中的作用
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摘要
自20世纪60年代开始,地震预报研究至今已40多年,但到目前为止,仍然未取得突破性进展;而另一方面随着社会经济的迅速发展和对人的生命价值的重视,社会和民众对准确预报地震的期望十分迫切,特别是5.12汶川大地震的发生,使得一些群众对地震预报工作产生怀疑和不理解。地震预报研究到底有无作用?本文从地震灾害的特点、地震预报的难点和我国地震预报探索几十年来所取得的成效作一阐述,并对如何提高地震预报实效提出几点讨论意见。
Since 1960s,there has been more than 40 years for earthquake forecast study which still has had no breakthrough up to now.However,with the fast development of the social economy and increase of the life quality of the people,society and people call for higher accuracy of earthquake forecast.Nevertheless,the occurrence of Wenchuan earthquake has made some people distrust and misunderstand of earthquake forecast study.Is really the earthquake forecast study useful? To answer it,four points have been explained in the paper:① The features of earthquake disasters.② The difficulties in earthquake forecast.③ The achievements for decades in earthquake forecast research in China.④ Some suggestions on how to improve the accuracy of earthquake forecast.
Since 1960s,there has been more than 40 years for earthquake forecast study which still has had no breakthrough up to now.However,with the fast development of the social economy and increase of the life quality of the people,society and people call for higher accuracy of earthquake forecast.Nevertheless,the occurrence of Wenchuan earthquake has made some people distrust and misunderstand of earthquake forecast study.Is really the earthquake forecast study useful? To answer it,four points have been explained in the paper:① The features of earthquake disasters.② The difficulties in earthquake forecast.③ The achievements for decades in earthquake forecast research in China.④ Some suggestions on how to improve the accuracy of earthquake forecast.
引文
[1]建国来我国对地震的成功预报,看我国地震预测水平.百度空间网.http:∥hi.baidu.com/%CF%F0%D7%D3%CA%F7%CF%C2/blog/item/53beebcaf05f0983c817685a.html
[2]梅世蓉.地震预报究竟有无可能//院士专家谈地震专集.北京:地震出版社,2000:52-59
[3]地震灾害的特点.资源网:http:∥www.mlr.gov.cn/zb/20080515tzgjkzjzzjhdz/fangtanzhaiyao/200805/t20080515_103217.htm
[4]解放日报:地震预报缘何成为世界难题.人民网:http://opinion.people.com.cn/GB/7326508.html
[5]刘建华.谈谈地震预报研究的现状和发展.形变台站通讯,1992(1-2):9-12
[6]国际地震预报百年沉浮.网易.http:∥news.163.com/08/1031/10/4PIVIQLL00011SM9.html
[7]丁鉴海,刘杰,余素荣等.中国地震预报探索与实践.中国地震信息网:http://www.csi.ac.cn/hxz/talkeq/zj20060315002.htm
[8]杜车别.我摘录整理的十四次中国地震预报成功案例资料.精英博客网.http:∥blog.voc.com.cn/blog.php?do=showone&uid=5699&type=blog&itemid=475642
[9]岳明生.地震预测研究发展战略几点思考.国际地震动态,2005(5):7-21
[10]张国民.我国的地震灾害和地震预报.数字中国网:http:∥www.china001.com/show_hdr.php?xname=PPDDMV0&dname=4JL7H41&xpos=4
[11]中国地震灾害预测与预报新闻发布会.中国网:http:∥www.china.com.cn/zhibo/2008-07/19/content_16025347.htm?show=t
[12]邹波.防震减灾助理员工作体制的实践与探索.华南地震,2001(4):73-77
[13]杨马陵,沈繁銮,王正尚.预警等级预报一种新的地震预报发布形式和对策的思考.国际地震动态,2004(8):1-12
[2]梅世蓉.地震预报究竟有无可能//院士专家谈地震专集.北京:地震出版社,2000:52-59
[3]地震灾害的特点.资源网:http:∥www.mlr.gov.cn/zb/20080515tzgjkzjzzjhdz/fangtanzhaiyao/200805/t20080515_103217.htm
[4]解放日报:地震预报缘何成为世界难题.人民网:http://opinion.people.com.cn/GB/7326508.html
[5]刘建华.谈谈地震预报研究的现状和发展.形变台站通讯,1992(1-2):9-12
[6]国际地震预报百年沉浮.网易.http:∥news.163.com/08/1031/10/4PIVIQLL00011SM9.html
[7]丁鉴海,刘杰,余素荣等.中国地震预报探索与实践.中国地震信息网:http://www.csi.ac.cn/hxz/talkeq/zj20060315002.htm
[8]杜车别.我摘录整理的十四次中国地震预报成功案例资料.精英博客网.http:∥blog.voc.com.cn/blog.php?do=showone&uid=5699&type=blog&itemid=475642
[9]岳明生.地震预测研究发展战略几点思考.国际地震动态,2005(5):7-21
[10]张国民.我国的地震灾害和地震预报.数字中国网:http:∥www.china001.com/show_hdr.php?xname=PPDDMV0&dname=4JL7H41&xpos=4
[11]中国地震灾害预测与预报新闻发布会.中国网:http:∥www.china.com.cn/zhibo/2008-07/19/content_16025347.htm?show=t
[12]邹波.防震减灾助理员工作体制的实践与探索.华南地震,2001(4):73-77
[13]杨马陵,沈繁銮,王正尚.预警等级预报一种新的地震预报发布形式和对策的思考.国际地震动态,2004(8):1-12
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