汶川8级地震前加卸载响应比的大尺度异常
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摘要
孕震初期加卸载响应比(LURR)通常在1左右涨落,然后逐渐上升至峰值点。但强地震并不在峰值点上发生,而要滞后一段时间(T2)。T2与震级有关,震级越大,T2越长。对于8级地震,T2的计算值为28±8个月,汶川8级地震实际的T2是23个月。对于大地震,T2很长,峰值点后LURR通常迅速下降,在大地震前夕LURR常常降得很低,而预测的地震又迟迟没有发生,这种情况下很容易误导人们怀疑,甚至放弃原来的预测,殊不知,这时大地震正在迫近。这正是汶川8级地震给予人们血的教训。大地震不仅孕育时间长,孕震区面积也很大。大地震的前兆在时空上都是大尺度。基于这种认识,根据LURR的演化,中国大陆西南地区可能正在孕育一个特大地震。
The Load-Unload Response Ratio(LURR) value fluctuates around 1.0 during the early stage of the seismogenic process and then gradually reaches its peak point(PP),but strong earthquakes do not onset at that time and will occur sometime later.This lag time(T2) depends on magnitude of the impending earthquake.The larger the magnitude,the longer the lag time T2 will be.For a large earthquake like M8,the anticipated T2 is 28±8 months and the real T2 for Wenchuan earthquake was 23 months.After the peak point,LURR decreases sharply and T2 lasts a long time.Therefore at the eve of a large event LURR would be very low,but the predicted earthquake has not happened yet.In such a case,it is easy to doubt and even give up a correct prediction.That was the blood lesson to us from Wenchuan earthquake.A large earthquake should prepare not only for a long time,but also in a vast region.In one word,the LURR anomaly(and also the other precursors perhaps) of a large earthquake will be revealed in large temporal and spatial scales.Based on this insight we predict that a super large earthquake is prepared in south-western China.
The Load-Unload Response Ratio(LURR) value fluctuates around 1.0 during the early stage of the seismogenic process and then gradually reaches its peak point(PP),but strong earthquakes do not onset at that time and will occur sometime later.This lag time(T2) depends on magnitude of the impending earthquake.The larger the magnitude,the longer the lag time T2 will be.For a large earthquake like M8,the anticipated T2 is 28±8 months and the real T2 for Wenchuan earthquake was 23 months.After the peak point,LURR decreases sharply and T2 lasts a long time.Therefore at the eve of a large event LURR would be very low,but the predicted earthquake has not happened yet.In such a case,it is easy to doubt and even give up a correct prediction.That was the blood lesson to us from Wenchuan earthquake.A large earthquake should prepare not only for a long time,but also in a vast region.In one word,the LURR anomaly(and also the other precursors perhaps) of a large earthquake will be revealed in large temporal and spatial scales.Based on this insight we predict that a super large earthquake is prepared in south-western China.
引文
[1]YIN Xiang-chu,Zheng Tian-yu.A rheological model for the process of preparation of an earthquake[J].Scientia Sinica,1991,26:285-296.
[2]尹祥础.地震预测新途径的探索[J].中国地震,1987,3(1):1-7.
[3]YIN Xiang-chu,YIN Can.The precursor of instability for nonlinear systems and its application toearthquake prediction[J].Science in China,1991,34:977-986.
[4]YIN Xiang-chu.A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction[J].PRERODA(Russia′s“Nature”),1993,(1):21-27(In Russian).
[5]YIN Xiang-Chu,YIN Can,CHEN Xue-zhong.The Precursor of Instability for Nonlinear Systemand Its Application to Earthquake Prediction-the load-Unload Response Ratio Theory,“Non-lineardynamics and predictability of geophysical phenomena”[J].(eds,W.I.Naman,Gabrelov,A.M.,and Turcotte,D.L.),AGU Geophysical Monograph,1994,83:55-60.
[6]YIN Xiang-chu,CHEN Xue-zhong,SONG Zhi-ping,et al.A New Approach to Earthquake Predic-tion-The Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].PAGEOPH,1995,145,(3/4):701-715.
[7]YIN Xiang-chu,CHEN Xue-zhong,SONG Zhi-ping,et al.A New Approach to Earthquake Predic-tion-The Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].PAGEOPH,1995,145,(3/4):701-715.
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[9]YIN Xiang-chu,YU Huai-zhong,VICTOR Kukshenko,et al.Load-Unload Response Ratio(LURR),Accelerating Energy release(AER)and State Vector evolution as precursors to failure ofrock specimens[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2004,161(11-12):2 405-2 416.
[10]Yin X C,Zhang L P,Zhang H H,et al.LURR′s Twenty Years and Its Perspective[J].Pure andApplied Geophysics,2006,163(11-12):2 317-2 341.
[11]尹祥础,张晖辉,余怀忠,等.加卸载响应比理论的新进展及其对中国大陆未来地震趋势的预测[A].中国地震趋势预测研究(2004年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2003.282-285.
[12]尹祥础,张晖辉,余怀忠,等.多时空尺度加卸载响应比扫描预测2005年度中国大陆地震趋势[A].中国地震趋势预测研究(2005)年度).北京:地震出版社,2004.285-291.
[13]尹祥础,张晖辉,张浪平,等.从加卸载响应比的变化预测中国大陆地震趋势[A].中国大陆强震趋势预测研究(2006年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2005.92-96.
[14]尹祥础,张浪平,张永仙,等.从加卸载响应比的时空演化预测中国大陆2007年地震趋势的初步研究[A].中国大陆强震趋势预测研究(2007年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2006.
[15]张晖辉,尹祥础,梁乃刚.中国大陆地区中强地震前加卸载响应比异常时间尺度的统计研究[J].中国地震,2005,21:486-495.
[16]张晖辉.非均匀脆性介质的灾变预测-加卸载响应比理论的研究与实践[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院,2006.
[17]YIN Xiang-chu,ZHANG Lang-ping,ZHANG Yong-xian,et al.The Newest Developments ofLoad-Unload Response Ratio(LURR)[J].PAGEOPH,2008,165:711-722.
[18]Yin et al.The peak point of LURR and its significance,6th ACES Workshop May 11-16,2008,Cairns,Australia.
[19]余怀忠,尹祥础,梁乃刚.利用损伤力学模型研究地震前兆现象[J].地球物理学进展,2004,19(2):404-413.
[20]Yin X C,Mora P,Peng K Y,et al.Load-unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/EnergyRelease,Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction[J].Pure Appl Geophys,2002,159:2 511-2 524.
[21]彭克银,尹祥础,和锐.用临界点理论讨论应变能加速释放现象和孕震区尺度[J].中国地震,2003,19:425-430.
[2]尹祥础.地震预测新途径的探索[J].中国地震,1987,3(1):1-7.
[3]YIN Xiang-chu,YIN Can.The precursor of instability for nonlinear systems and its application toearthquake prediction[J].Science in China,1991,34:977-986.
[4]YIN Xiang-chu.A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction[J].PRERODA(Russia′s“Nature”),1993,(1):21-27(In Russian).
[5]YIN Xiang-Chu,YIN Can,CHEN Xue-zhong.The Precursor of Instability for Nonlinear Systemand Its Application to Earthquake Prediction-the load-Unload Response Ratio Theory,“Non-lineardynamics and predictability of geophysical phenomena”[J].(eds,W.I.Naman,Gabrelov,A.M.,and Turcotte,D.L.),AGU Geophysical Monograph,1994,83:55-60.
[6]YIN Xiang-chu,CHEN Xue-zhong,SONG Zhi-ping,et al.A New Approach to Earthquake Predic-tion-The Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].PAGEOPH,1995,145,(3/4):701-715.
[7]YIN Xiang-chu,CHEN Xue-zhong,SONG Zhi-ping,et al.A New Approach to Earthquake Predic-tion-The Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].PAGEOPH,1995,145,(3/4):701-715.
[8]YIN Xiang-chu,WANG Yu-cang,PANG Ke-yin,et al.Development of a New Approach to Earth-quake Prediction-Load/unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].Pure Appl Geophys,2000,157:2 365-2 383.
[9]YIN Xiang-chu,YU Huai-zhong,VICTOR Kukshenko,et al.Load-Unload Response Ratio(LURR),Accelerating Energy release(AER)and State Vector evolution as precursors to failure ofrock specimens[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2004,161(11-12):2 405-2 416.
[10]Yin X C,Zhang L P,Zhang H H,et al.LURR′s Twenty Years and Its Perspective[J].Pure andApplied Geophysics,2006,163(11-12):2 317-2 341.
[11]尹祥础,张晖辉,余怀忠,等.加卸载响应比理论的新进展及其对中国大陆未来地震趋势的预测[A].中国地震趋势预测研究(2004年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2003.282-285.
[12]尹祥础,张晖辉,余怀忠,等.多时空尺度加卸载响应比扫描预测2005年度中国大陆地震趋势[A].中国地震趋势预测研究(2005)年度).北京:地震出版社,2004.285-291.
[13]尹祥础,张晖辉,张浪平,等.从加卸载响应比的变化预测中国大陆地震趋势[A].中国大陆强震趋势预测研究(2006年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2005.92-96.
[14]尹祥础,张浪平,张永仙,等.从加卸载响应比的时空演化预测中国大陆2007年地震趋势的初步研究[A].中国大陆强震趋势预测研究(2007年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2006.
[15]张晖辉,尹祥础,梁乃刚.中国大陆地区中强地震前加卸载响应比异常时间尺度的统计研究[J].中国地震,2005,21:486-495.
[16]张晖辉.非均匀脆性介质的灾变预测-加卸载响应比理论的研究与实践[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院,2006.
[17]YIN Xiang-chu,ZHANG Lang-ping,ZHANG Yong-xian,et al.The Newest Developments ofLoad-Unload Response Ratio(LURR)[J].PAGEOPH,2008,165:711-722.
[18]Yin et al.The peak point of LURR and its significance,6th ACES Workshop May 11-16,2008,Cairns,Australia.
[19]余怀忠,尹祥础,梁乃刚.利用损伤力学模型研究地震前兆现象[J].地球物理学进展,2004,19(2):404-413.
[20]Yin X C,Mora P,Peng K Y,et al.Load-unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/EnergyRelease,Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction[J].Pure Appl Geophys,2002,159:2 511-2 524.
[21]彭克银,尹祥础,和锐.用临界点理论讨论应变能加速释放现象和孕震区尺度[J].中国地震,2003,19:425-430.
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