京津唐地区地震灾害和危险性评估
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摘要
利用我国京津唐地区500年以来记录较完整的历史地震烈度资料,尝试进行了地震灾害与危险性分析,以提供制定抗震设防基本参数或烈度的参考.首先,我们用ArcGIS把这些历史烈度资料进行了数字化,并把研究区分成0.1°×0.1°的小方格.然后,我们对烈度资料进行了统计分析,得到每个小方格的地震烈度-频度关系(即灾害曲线).最后,基于地震发生遵从泊松分布的假定,利用灾害曲线估算了京津唐地区的地震风险,即在未来一段时间内(如50年)该地区遭受某一地震烈度(如Ⅶ,Ⅷ,或Ⅸ度)的超越概率.同时,我们还估算了50年超越概率10%所对应的地震烈度,如:北京为Ⅸ,天津为Ⅸ,唐山为≥Ⅸ,保定为Ⅷ,廊坊为Ⅸ.研究结果表明,京津唐地区有较高的地震危险性,现行的抗震设防要求可能偏低.
This paper attempts to analyze seismic hazard and risk in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, area from 500-year intensity observations, and to provide the basic parameters or intensities for seismic design and other mitigation considerations.First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1 degree ×0.1 degree.Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data and derived intensity-frequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell.Finally, we estimated seismic risk in terms of a probability that intensity exceeds Ⅶ , Ⅷ, or Ⅸ in a certain periods (i.e., 50years) based on the assumption of a Poisson distribution for earthquake occurrence.We also estimated the corresponding intensity with 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years.The results shows that the area has high seismic risk and the current design requirement for the area may be not adequate.
This paper attempts to analyze seismic hazard and risk in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, area from 500-year intensity observations, and to provide the basic parameters or intensities for seismic design and other mitigation considerations.First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1 degree ×0.1 degree.Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data and derived intensity-frequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell.Finally, we estimated seismic risk in terms of a probability that intensity exceeds Ⅶ , Ⅷ, or Ⅸ in a certain periods (i.e., 50years) based on the assumption of a Poisson distribution for earthquake occurrence.We also estimated the corresponding intensity with 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years.The results shows that the area has high seismic risk and the current design requirement for the area may be not adequate.
引文
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[4] Bozkurt S B, Stein R S, Toda S. Forecasting probabilistic seismic shaking for greater Tokyo from 400 years of intensity observations. Earthquake Spectra, 2007,23 : 525 ～ 546
[5] 黄玮琼,李文香,曹学峰.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一--以华北地区为例.地震学报,1994,16(3) :273～280Huang W Q, Li W X, Cao X F. Study of the completeness of the continental earthquake catalog of China-An example for the North China. Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese),1994, 16(3) : 273～280
[6] 汪素云,时振梁.有感半径与震级的关系和应用.见:国家地震局震害防御司编.中国地震区划文集.北京:地震出版社,1993． 179～184Wang S Y, Shi Z L. The relationship between sensible radius and magnitude and application. In: Institute of Hazard Defence, China Earthquake Administration. Anthology of China Earthquake Regionalization ( in Chinese). Beijing:Seismological Press, 1993． 179～184
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[8] Milne W G, Davenport A G. Distribution of earthquake risk in Canada. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 1969, 59:729～754
[9] Gupta R S. Hydrology and Hydraulic Systems. Englewood Cliffs, N.J. : Prentice Hall, 1989． 739
[10] Sachs P. Wind Forces in Engineering (2~(nd) Ed. ). Elmsford, N. Y. : Pergamon Press Inc. , 1978． 400
[11] 中华人民共和国国家标准.中国地震动参数区划图,GB18306-2001． 2001 People's Republic of China National Standard (PRCNS). Seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of China, GB 18306-2001 (in Chinese). 2001
[12] 王挺梅.唐山大地震的重复间隔.地震地质,1984,6(3) :77～83Wang T M. Recurrence interval of the Tangshan earthquake.Seismology and Geology (in Chinese), 1984,6 : 77～83
[13] 刘洁,宋惠,巫映祥等.唐山地震发震断层运动学特征与大震重复周期.地震学报,1997,19(6) :566～573Liu J, Song H, Wu Y X, et al. Tangshan earthquake fault kinemics and recurrence interval. Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese), 1997,19 : 566～573
[14] 向宏发,方仲景,徐杰等.三河-平谷8级地震区的构造背景与大震重复性研究.地震地质,1988,10(1) :15～28Xiang H F, Fang Z J, Xu J, et al. Tectonic background and recurrence interval of the Sanhe-Pinggu earthquake.Seismology and Geology (in Chinese), 1988,10 : 15 ～ 28
[15] 冉永康,邓起东,杨晓平等.1679年三河平谷8级地震发震断层的古地震及其重复间隔.地震地质,1997,19(3) :193～201RanY K, Deng Q D, Yang X P, et al. The 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu earthquake fault and recurrence interval. Seismology and Geology (in Chinese),1997,19: 193～201
[16] Cornell C A. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 1968, 58 : 1583～1606
[17] McGuire R K. Seismic hazard and risk analysis. Berkeley: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, 2004． 240
[18] Cornell C A. Probabilistic analysis of damage to structures under seismic loads. In: Howells D A, Haigh I P, Taylor C, ed. Dynamic Waves in Civil Engineering: Proceedings of a Conference Organized by the Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics. New York: John Wiley, 1971． 473～493
[19] 高孟潭,陈国星,谢富仁等.《四川、甘肃、陕西部分地区地震动参数区划图》编制.国际地震动态,2008,6(354) :9～12 GaoMT, ChenG X, XieFR, et al. Seismic zoning map in part of Sichuan, Gansu and Shanxi provinces. Recent Developments in World Seismology (in Chinese), 2008, 6(354) :9～12
[20] 高孟潭,肖和平,燕为民等.中强地震活动地区地震区划重要性及关键技术进展.震灾防御技术,2008,3(1) :1～7Gao M T, Xiao H P, Yan W M, et al. The importance of seismic zonation in moderate earthquake area and the recent technical progress. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention(in Chinese) ,2008,3(1) :1～7
[21] Frankel A, Mueller C, Barnhard T, et al. National seismic hazard maps: Documentation June 1996． U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 96～532, 110 p. 1996
[22] Petersen M D, Frankel A D, Harmsen S C, et al. Documentation for the 2008 update of the United States national seismic hazard maps. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 08～1128, 60 p. 2008
[23] Wang Z M, Zhou M. Comment on “Why Do Modern Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses Often Lead to Increased Hazard Estimates?” by Julian J. Bommer and Norman A. Abrahamson. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2007,97: 2212～2214
[24] Wang Z M. Comment on “Sigma: Issues, Insights, and Challenges” by Fleur O. Strasser, Norman A. Abrahamson, and Julian J. Bommer. Seismological Research Letters, 2009, 80:491～493
[25] Kircher C A, Luco N, Whittaker A. Summary of SDPRG proposal for changes to the 2009 NEHRP provisions. Building Seismic Safety Council Seismic Design Procedures Reassessment Group (SDPRG) workshop, September 10, 2008, Burlingame, California ( http://bssconline, org/ 2008 AnnualMeeting/08MeetingRecap. html). 2008
[26] Building Seismic Safety Council (BSSC). NEHRP recommended provisions for seismic regulations for new buildings [1997 ed.]: Federal Emergency Management Agency, 1998． 337
[27] Caltrans. Seismic design methodology, memo to designers 20-1, January 1999． 1999
[28] Ding Z F, Romanelli F, Chen Y T, et al. Realistic modeling of seismic wave ground motion in Beijing City. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2004,161 : 1 ～ 14
[29] 潘波,许建东,关口春子等.北京地区近断层强地震动模拟.地震地质,2006,28(4) :623～634Pan B, Xu J D, Haruko S, et al. Simulation of the near-fault strong ground motion in Beijing Region. Seismology and Geology (in Chinese), 2006,28 : 623 ～ 634
[2] 国家地震局震害防御司编.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪-1911年).北京:地震出版社,1999China Earthquake Administration(CEA). Historical Strong Earthquake Catalog of China (2300 B.C.-1911 A. C. ) (in Chinese). Beijing: Earthquake Publishing House, 1999
[3] 中国地震局震害防御司编.中国近代地震目录(公元1912～1990年M_s≥4． 7) .北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999China Earthquake Administration(CEA). Recent Earthquake Catalog of China (1912～1990, M_S≥4． 7) (in Chinese). Beijing: Chinese Science and Technology Press, 1999
[4] Bozkurt S B, Stein R S, Toda S. Forecasting probabilistic seismic shaking for greater Tokyo from 400 years of intensity observations. Earthquake Spectra, 2007,23 : 525 ～ 546
[5] 黄玮琼,李文香,曹学峰.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一--以华北地区为例.地震学报,1994,16(3) :273～280Huang W Q, Li W X, Cao X F. Study of the completeness of the continental earthquake catalog of China-An example for the North China. Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese),1994, 16(3) : 273～280
[6] 汪素云,时振梁.有感半径与震级的关系和应用.见:国家地震局震害防御司编.中国地震区划文集.北京:地震出版社,1993． 179～184Wang S Y, Shi Z L. The relationship between sensible radius and magnitude and application. In: Institute of Hazard Defence, China Earthquake Administration. Anthology of China Earthquake Regionalization ( in Chinese). Beijing:Seismological Press, 1993． 179～184
[7] 汪素云,武宦英.华北地区地震烈度的衰减关系.见:国家地震局震害防御司编.中国地震区划文集.北京:地震出版社, 1993． 185～191Wang S Y, Wu H Y. Attenuation relationship of earthquake intensity in North China, In: Institute of Hazard Defence, China Earthquake Administration. Anthology of China Earthquake Regionalization ( in Chinese ). Beijing: Seismological Press, 1993． 185～191
[8] Milne W G, Davenport A G. Distribution of earthquake risk in Canada. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 1969, 59:729～754
[9] Gupta R S. Hydrology and Hydraulic Systems. Englewood Cliffs, N.J. : Prentice Hall, 1989． 739
[10] Sachs P. Wind Forces in Engineering (2~(nd) Ed. ). Elmsford, N. Y. : Pergamon Press Inc. , 1978． 400
[11] 中华人民共和国国家标准.中国地震动参数区划图,GB18306-2001． 2001 People's Republic of China National Standard (PRCNS). Seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of China, GB 18306-2001 (in Chinese). 2001
[12] 王挺梅.唐山大地震的重复间隔.地震地质,1984,6(3) :77～83Wang T M. Recurrence interval of the Tangshan earthquake.Seismology and Geology (in Chinese), 1984,6 : 77～83
[13] 刘洁,宋惠,巫映祥等.唐山地震发震断层运动学特征与大震重复周期.地震学报,1997,19(6) :566～573Liu J, Song H, Wu Y X, et al. Tangshan earthquake fault kinemics and recurrence interval. Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese), 1997,19 : 566～573
[14] 向宏发,方仲景,徐杰等.三河-平谷8级地震区的构造背景与大震重复性研究.地震地质,1988,10(1) :15～28Xiang H F, Fang Z J, Xu J, et al. Tectonic background and recurrence interval of the Sanhe-Pinggu earthquake.Seismology and Geology (in Chinese), 1988,10 : 15 ～ 28
[15] 冉永康,邓起东,杨晓平等.1679年三河平谷8级地震发震断层的古地震及其重复间隔.地震地质,1997,19(3) :193～201RanY K, Deng Q D, Yang X P, et al. The 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu earthquake fault and recurrence interval. Seismology and Geology (in Chinese),1997,19: 193～201
[16] Cornell C A. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 1968, 58 : 1583～1606
[17] McGuire R K. Seismic hazard and risk analysis. Berkeley: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, 2004． 240
[18] Cornell C A. Probabilistic analysis of damage to structures under seismic loads. In: Howells D A, Haigh I P, Taylor C, ed. Dynamic Waves in Civil Engineering: Proceedings of a Conference Organized by the Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics. New York: John Wiley, 1971． 473～493
[19] 高孟潭,陈国星,谢富仁等.《四川、甘肃、陕西部分地区地震动参数区划图》编制.国际地震动态,2008,6(354) :9～12 GaoMT, ChenG X, XieFR, et al. Seismic zoning map in part of Sichuan, Gansu and Shanxi provinces. Recent Developments in World Seismology (in Chinese), 2008, 6(354) :9～12
[20] 高孟潭,肖和平,燕为民等.中强地震活动地区地震区划重要性及关键技术进展.震灾防御技术,2008,3(1) :1～7Gao M T, Xiao H P, Yan W M, et al. The importance of seismic zonation in moderate earthquake area and the recent technical progress. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention(in Chinese) ,2008,3(1) :1～7
[21] Frankel A, Mueller C, Barnhard T, et al. National seismic hazard maps: Documentation June 1996． U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 96～532, 110 p. 1996
[22] Petersen M D, Frankel A D, Harmsen S C, et al. Documentation for the 2008 update of the United States national seismic hazard maps. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 08～1128, 60 p. 2008
[23] Wang Z M, Zhou M. Comment on “Why Do Modern Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses Often Lead to Increased Hazard Estimates?” by Julian J. Bommer and Norman A. Abrahamson. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2007,97: 2212～2214
[24] Wang Z M. Comment on “Sigma: Issues, Insights, and Challenges” by Fleur O. Strasser, Norman A. Abrahamson, and Julian J. Bommer. Seismological Research Letters, 2009, 80:491～493
[25] Kircher C A, Luco N, Whittaker A. Summary of SDPRG proposal for changes to the 2009 NEHRP provisions. Building Seismic Safety Council Seismic Design Procedures Reassessment Group (SDPRG) workshop, September 10, 2008, Burlingame, California ( http://bssconline, org/ 2008 AnnualMeeting/08MeetingRecap. html). 2008
[26] Building Seismic Safety Council (BSSC). NEHRP recommended provisions for seismic regulations for new buildings [1997 ed.]: Federal Emergency Management Agency, 1998． 337
[27] Caltrans. Seismic design methodology, memo to designers 20-1, January 1999． 1999
[28] Ding Z F, Romanelli F, Chen Y T, et al. Realistic modeling of seismic wave ground motion in Beijing City. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2004,161 : 1 ～ 14
[29] 潘波,许建东,关口春子等.北京地区近断层强地震动模拟.地震地质,2006,28(4) :623～634Pan B, Xu J D, Haruko S, et al. Simulation of the near-fault strong ground motion in Beijing Region. Seismology and Geology (in Chinese), 2006,28 : 623 ～ 634
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