NCEP温度图像与天体引潮力附加构造应力结合作地震短临预测初探——以2003年7—8月3次西藏地震为例
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摘要
利用美国国家环境预测中心NCEP全球再分析资料的温度图像结合天体引潮力附加构造应力,对2003年5月以来的国内MS≥6.0、国外MS≥7.0的地震作了统计分析。以2004年7月12日—2004年8月25日间西藏地区3次地震为例得出如下认识:NCEP温度异常图像可以较好地反映短临地震构造活动时空演变过程;天体引潮力附加构造应力对地应力处于临界状态的活动断层具有明显的诱发作用;利用NCEP温度异常图像与天体引潮力附加构造应力结合进行地震短临预测是具有良好应用前景的新思路;西藏的3次地震均发生在天体引潮力附加构造应力周期相同的相位上,即天体引潮力附加构造应力变化达到相对稳定的峰值的末端,而不是发生在天体引潮力附加构造应力最大时刻,同时2003—2004年在西藏发生的其它震例中,地震发生在上述周期相同的相位,因此认为应当对其它区域更长时间更多的震例作这方面的进一步研究。
Taking the three earthquakes which occurred in Xizang of China during the period of July 12 to August 25, 2004 as an example,the paper analyses the M_ S≥6.0 earthquakes that occurred in China and M_ S≥7.0 earthquakes that occurred in overseas since May of 2003 by combining the image data of National Centers for Environmental Prediction of America with the astro-tidal-triggering and makes the following conclusions: The temperature abnormal image data of NCEP can better reflect the spatial-time evolution process of tectonic earthquake activity; The change of astro-tidal-triggering can better keep pace with the dynamic state of temperature abnormal images; The astro-tidal-triggering has an evident triggering effect on the active fault where the terrestrial stress is in critical status; It is a new thinking to use the NCEP images and the astro-tidal-triggering to forecast short-impending earthquake; The three earthquakes occurred during the same phase of the respective astro-tidal-triggering (ATSA) additive tectonic stress cycle, i.e. occurring at the time when the ATSA reached the relatively steady end of peak, rather than the time when the variation rate was maximal. Meantime, the author discovered that the occurrence time of other earthquake cases during 2003—2004 in Xizang was also in the same phase of the above-mentioned cycles, and therefore, further study of this feature is needed with more earthquake cases in other areas over longer periods of time.
Taking the three earthquakes which occurred in Xizang of China during the period of July 12 to August 25, 2004 as an example,the paper analyses the M_ S≥6.0 earthquakes that occurred in China and M_ S≥7.0 earthquakes that occurred in overseas since May of 2003 by combining the image data of National Centers for Environmental Prediction of America with the astro-tidal-triggering and makes the following conclusions: The temperature abnormal image data of NCEP can better reflect the spatial-time evolution process of tectonic earthquake activity; The change of astro-tidal-triggering can better keep pace with the dynamic state of temperature abnormal images; The astro-tidal-triggering has an evident triggering effect on the active fault where the terrestrial stress is in critical status; It is a new thinking to use the NCEP images and the astro-tidal-triggering to forecast short-impending earthquake; The three earthquakes occurred during the same phase of the respective astro-tidal-triggering (ATSA) additive tectonic stress cycle, i.e. occurring at the time when the ATSA reached the relatively steady end of peak, rather than the time when the variation rate was maximal. Meantime, the author discovered that the occurrence time of other earthquake cases during 2003—2004 in Xizang was also in the same phase of the above-mentioned cycles, and therefore, further study of this feature is needed with more earthquake cases in other areas over longer periods of time.
引文
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Heaton TH.1975.Tidal triggering of earthquakes[J].Geophys J R Astr Soc,43(2):307—326.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.1996.The NCEP/NCAR40years reanalysis project[J].Bull AmerMeteor Soc,77(3):437—471.
Kilston S,Knopoff L.1983.Lunar-solar periodicities of large earthquakes in southern California[J].Nature,7:21—25.
Ouzounov D,Freund F.2004.Mid-infrared emission prior to strong earthquakes analyzed by remote sensing data[J].Advances in Space Research,33(32):268—273.
Melchior P.1984.行星地球的固体潮[M].杜品仁等译.北京:科学出版社.8—79.Melchior P.1984.The solid tide of planet and earth[M].Translated into Chinese by DU Pin-renet al.SciencePress,Beijing.8—79(in Chinese).
苗永宽.1983.球面天文学[M].北京:科学出版社.29—45.MIAO Yong-kuan.1983.Spherical astronomy[M].Science Press,Beijing.29—45(in Chinese).
钱伟长,叶开沅.1980.弹性力学[M].北京:科学出版社.63—350.QIAN Wei-chang,YE Kai-yuan.1980.Elastic mechanics[M].Science Press,Beijing.63—350(in Chinese).
强祖基,徐秀登.1990.热红外异常?临震前兆[J].科学通报,35(17):1324—1327.QIANG Zu-ji,XU Xiu-deng.1990.Thermal infrared abnormal thermal anomaly earthquake imminent precursor[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,35(17):1324—1327(in Chinese).
吴庆鹏.1997.重力学与固体潮[M].北京:地震出版社.206—209.WU Qing-peng.1997.Gravity and solid tide[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.206—209(in Chinese).
吴小平,黄雍,胡家富,等.2001.地震主应力方向的附加潮汐应力计算及其对发震断层的作用方式研究[J].地震研究,24(1):48—54.WU Xiao-ping,HUANG Yong,HU Jia-fu,et al.2001.Calculation of the additional tidal stress along seismicprinciple stress orientation and study on its action mode on seismogenic fault[J].Journal of seismologicalresearch,24(1):48—54(in Chinese).
吴小平,冒蔚,黄雍,等.1999.潮汐应力对发震断层作用的统计分析[J].地球物理学报,42(增刊):65—74.WU Xiao-ping,MAO Wei,HUANG Yong,et al.1999.Statistical analysis of tidal stress effect on seismic faults[J].Chinese journal of geophysics,42(suppl):65—74(in Chinese).
徐秀登.2000.台湾南投7.6级地震前卫星红外异常[J].地震学报,22(6):666—669.XU Xiu-deng.2001.Satellite infrared anomaly before the NantouMS7.6earthquake in Taiwan,China[J].ActaSeismologica Sinica,22(6):666—669(in Chinese).
徐秀登.2001.地震前红外异常的基本特征与成因机理[J].西北地震学报,23(3):310—312.XU Xiu-deng.2001.The basic characters and formation mechanism of satellite infrared anomalies before strongearthquakes[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,23(3):310—312(in Chinese).
朱介寿.1988.地震学中的计算方法[M].北京:地震出版社.181—189.ZHU Jie-shou.1988.Calculation methods in seismology[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.181—189(inChinese).
Heaton TH.1975.Tidal triggering of earthquakes[J].Geophys J R Astr Soc,43(2):307—326.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.1996.The NCEP/NCAR40years reanalysis project[J].Bull AmerMeteor Soc,77(3):437—471.
Kilston S,Knopoff L.1983.Lunar-solar periodicities of large earthquakes in southern California[J].Nature,7:21—25.
Ouzounov D,Freund F.2004.Mid-infrared emission prior to strong earthquakes analyzed by remote sensing data[J].Advances in Space Research,33(32):268—273.
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