基于活动地块边界带的测震学参数M_f值对丽江地震的预测应用
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摘要
地震构造是强震发生的必要基础,强震的孕育和发生与构造密切相关。强震的孕育和发生不仅与震中周围构造有关,而且与孕震区所在的整个构造带有关。这就表明整个构造带的地震活动性与未来强震都有关联。因此,在做测震学参数异常预测地震时,必须考虑整个构造带的地震活动。过去人们常以震中周围地区的地震活动资料来做测震学参数的异常分析,可能会丢失部分信息。文中以金沙江—红河边界带和地震学参量Mf值的结合为例,对基于活动地块边界带的测震学参数强震预测进行了探索,其结果对丽江地震预测效果很好,这对边界带的地震危险性判定有某种参考价值。
Seismic tectonics is the necessary basis of strong earthquake occurrence,and preparation and occurrence of strong earthquakes are closely related with tectonics.Preparation and occurrence of strong earthquakes are closely related not only with tectonic area of epicenters,but also with the whole tectonic zone.That is to say,seismicity along whole zone is related with future earthquakes,so when we predict the seismicity by using seismometry parameters we must consider seismicity problem along whole zone.We used to analyze anomaly of seismological parameters only using the data around the epicentral area.It is possible to lose part of anomaly information.In this paper,the author sets a good example of parameter Mf with Jinshajiang-Honghe zone in order to explore the earthquake prediction based on active tectonic block boundary zone.It is found that the result is better for Lijiang earthquake MS7.0 prediction.This work has a certain reference value for predicting earthquakes along active tectonic block boundary zone.
Seismic tectonics is the necessary basis of strong earthquake occurrence,and preparation and occurrence of strong earthquakes are closely related with tectonics.Preparation and occurrence of strong earthquakes are closely related not only with tectonic area of epicenters,but also with the whole tectonic zone.That is to say,seismicity along whole zone is related with future earthquakes,so when we predict the seismicity by using seismometry parameters we must consider seismicity problem along whole zone.We used to analyze anomaly of seismological parameters only using the data around the epicentral area.It is possible to lose part of anomaly information.In this paper,the author sets a good example of parameter Mf with Jinshajiang-Honghe zone in order to explore the earthquake prediction based on active tectonic block boundary zone.It is found that the result is better for Lijiang earthquake MS7.0 prediction.This work has a certain reference value for predicting earthquakes along active tectonic block boundary zone.
引文
[1]张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学,2003,33(增刊):12-20.
[2]孙其政主编,国家地震局预测预防司.地震预报系列教材—测震学分析预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997,86-105.
[3]陆远忠,李胜乐,邓志辉,等.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社,2002.21-29,188-189.
[2]孙其政主编,国家地震局预测预防司.地震预报系列教材—测震学分析预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997,86-105.
[3]陆远忠,李胜乐,邓志辉,等.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社,2002.21-29,188-189.
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