2010年智利马乌莱地震滑移与安第斯俯冲带震前闭锁的相关性
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摘要
2010年2月27日马乌莱(智利)M8.8地震使安第斯大逆冲型俯冲带的一部分区段破裂,该区段被认为具有极高的潜在地震危险性[1-6]。此次地震是使俯冲带内一个长期地震空区发生破裂的一次最大地震,在此之前,一个密集型空间大地测量台网对该俯冲带进行了监测。这就为评估震间闭锁与同震滑移的空间相关性提供了板块界面震前闭锁状态的前所未有的高分辨率图像。鉴于闭锁类似于滑动的基本假设,震前闭锁可被用于预测许多地震空区的未来破裂[6-12]。然而,没有第一次"填补空白"的地震的发生,这一假说就无法得以验证。在此,我们提供的证据表明,2010年马乌莱地震滑移分布状况与根据之前10年间全球定位系统(GPS)观测结果反演得到的震间闭锁分布密切相关。此次地震成核于一个闭锁程度很高的区域内,并将1835年大地震以来该区聚集的应力几乎释放一空。地震滑动量很大的两个区域(凸起体)在此次地震之前几乎处于完全闭锁状态。在这两个凸起体之间,此次破裂形成了一个处于震间蠕动状态的桥梁地带,其同震滑动量一贯较小。破裂中止于震前处于高度闭锁状态的区域,但其预应力却因20世纪重复发生的地震事件而大大降低。我们的结果显示,单个凸起体尺度内同震滑移的不均匀性应该能够说明未来大地震的潜在危险,由此,可以根据大地测量结果对其进行预测。
引文
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[29]Hanka W.GEOFON Extended Virtual Network.(http:∥geofon.gfz-potsdam.de/geofon/)(GFZ,German Research Centre for Geosciences,2010)
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[31]Cloos M.Thrust-type subduction-zone earthquakes and seamount asperities:A physical model forseismic rupture.Geology,1992,20:601-604
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[33]Moreno M S,Klotz J,Melnick D,et al.Active faulting and heterogeneous deformation across amegathrust segment boundary from GPS data,south central Chile(36°S-39°S).Geochem.Geophys.Geosyst.,2008,9,Q12024.doi:10.1029/2008GC002198
[34]Angermann D,Klotz J,Reigber C.Space-geodetic estimation of the Nazca-South America Euler vector.Earth Planet.Sci.Lett.,1999,171(3):329-334
[2]Nishenko R.Seismic potential for large and great intraplate earthquakes along the Chilean and SouthernPeruvian margins of South America:aquantitative reappraisal.J.Geophys.Res.,1985,90:3 589-3 615
[3]Nishenko S P.Circum-Pacific seismic potential:1989-1999.Pure Appl.Geophys.,1991,135(2):169-259
[4]Beck S,Barrientos S,Kausel E,et al.Source characteristics of historic earthquakes along the centralChile subduction zone.J.South Am.Earth Sci.,1998,11(2):115-129
[5]Campos J,Hatzfeld D,Madariaga R,et al.A seismological study of the 1835seismic gap in south-central Chile.Phys.Earth Planet.Inter.,2002,132(1-3):177-195
[6]Ruegg J C,Rudloff A,Vigny C,et al.Interseismic strain accumulation measured by GPS in the seismicgap between Constitución and Concepción in Chile.Phys.Earth Planet.Inter.,2009,175(1-2):78-85
[7]Savage J C,Lisowski M,Prescott W H.Strain accumulation in the Shumagin and Yakataga seismicgaps,Alaska.Science,1986,231(4 738):585-587
[8]Bürgmann R,Kogan M G,Steblov G M,et al.Interseismic coupling and asperity distribution along theKamchatka subduction zone.J.Geophys.Res.,2005,110,B07405.doi:10.1029/2005JB003648
[9]Murray J,Langbein J.Slip on the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield,California,over two earthquakecycles,and the implications for seismic hazard.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,2006,96:282-303
[10]Perfettini H,Avouac J-P,Tavera H,et al.Seismic and aseismic slip on the Central Peru megathrust.Nature,2010,465:78-81
[11]Chlieh M,Avouac J P,Sieh K,et al.Heterogeneous coupling of the Sumatran megathrust constrainedby geodetic and paleogeodetic measurements.J.Geophys.Res.,2008,113,B05305.doi:10.1029/2007JB004981
[12]Konca O,Avouac J-P,Sladen A,et al.Partial rupture of a locked patch of the Sumatra megathrustduring the 2007earthquake sequence.Nature,2008,456:631-635
[13]Fedotov S A.Regularities of the distribution of strong earthquakes in Kamchatka,the Kurile Islands,and northeastern Japan.Trudy Inst.Phys.Earth.Acad.Sci.USSR,1965,36:66-93
[14]Mogi K.Some features of recent seismic activity in and near Japan(2).Activity before and after greatearthquakes.Bull.Earthq.Res.Inst.,Univ.Tokyo,1969,47:395-417
[15]Sykes L R.Aftershock zones of great earthquakes,seismicity gaps,and earthquake prediction for Alaskaand the Aleutians.J.Geophys.Res.,1971,76:8 021-8 041
[16]Kelleher J,Sykes L,Oliver J.Possible criteria for predicting earthquake locations and their application tomajor plate boundaries of the Pacific and the Caribbean.J.Geophys.Res.,1973,78:2 547-2 585
[17]McNally K C.Seismic gaps in space and time.Ann.Rev.Earth Planet.Sci.,1983,11:359-369
[18]Kanamori H.Mechanics of Earthquakes.Ann.Rev.Earth Planet.Sci.,1994,22:207-237
[19]Lomnitz C.Grandes terremotos y tsunamis en Chile durante el periodo 1535-1955.Geofis.Panam.,1971,1:151-178
[20]Kelleher J.Rupture zones of large South American earthquakes and some predictions.J.Geophys.Res.,1972,77:2 087-2 103
[21]Darwin C.Journal and Remarks 1832-1836:Narrative of the Surveying Voyages of His Majesty’s ShipsAdventure and Beagle between the Years 1826and 1836,Describing their Examination of the SouthernShores of South America,and the Beagle’s Circumnavigation.Vol.3,370-381(Henry Colburn,1839)
[22]Barrientos S E.Dual seismogenic behavior:the 1985Central Chile earthquake.Geophys.Res.Lett.,1995,22:3 541-3 544
[23]Plafker G,Savage J C.Mechanism of the Chilean earthquake of May 21and 22,1960.Geol.Soc.Am.Bull.,1970,81:1 001-1 030
[24]Cifuentes I L.The 1960Chilean earthquake.J.Geophys.Res.,1989,94(B1):665-680
[25]Tassara A,Goetze H-J,Schmidt S,et al.Three-dimensional density model of the Nazca plate and theAndean continental margin.J.Geophys.Res.,2006,111,B09404.doi:10.1029/2005JB003976
[26]Hayes G.Finite Fault Model.Updated Result of the Feb 27,2010 MW8.8Maule,Chile Earthquake.(http:∥earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2010/us2010tfan/finite_fault.php)(US GeologicalSurvey/NEIC,2010)
[27]Shao G,Li X,Liu Q,et al.Preliminary slip model of the Feb 27,2010 MW8.9Maule,Chile Earth-quake.(http:∥www.geol.ucsb.edu/faculty/ji/big_earthquakes/2010/02/27/chile_2_27.Html)(University of California Santa Barbara,2010)
[28]Sladen A,Owen S.Preliminary Model Combining Teleseismic and GPS Data 02/27/2010(MW8.8),Chile.(http:∥tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2010_chile/prelim-gps.html)(Caltech/JPL,2010)
[29]Hanka W.GEOFON Extended Virtual Network.(http:∥geofon.gfz-potsdam.de/geofon/)(GFZ,German Research Centre for Geosciences,2010)
[30]Moreno M S,Bolte J,Klotz J,et al.Impact of megathrust geometry on inversion of coseismic slip fromgeodetic data:Application to the 1960Chile earthquake.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2009,36,L16310.doi:10.1029/2009GL039276
[31]Cloos M.Thrust-type subduction-zone earthquakes and seamount asperities:A physical model forseismic rupture.Geology,1992,20:601-604
[32]Kaneko Y,Avouac J-P,Lapusta N.Towards inferring earthquake patterns from geodetic observations ofinterseismic coupling.Nature Geosci.,2010,3:363-396
[33]Moreno M S,Klotz J,Melnick D,et al.Active faulting and heterogeneous deformation across amegathrust segment boundary from GPS data,south central Chile(36°S-39°S).Geochem.Geophys.Geosyst.,2008,9,Q12024.doi:10.1029/2008GC002198
[34]Angermann D,Klotz J,Reigber C.Space-geodetic estimation of the Nazca-South America Euler vector.Earth Planet.Sci.Lett.,1999,171(3):329-334
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