基于盲数理论的液化等级风险评价模型
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摘要
影响评价潜在液化土层液化危害等级的因素,具有多种不确定性信息共存或交叉存在的特征,而传统液化指数计算方法求得的某点数值不能给出相应的应用可靠性信息,此对整个土层的地震液化风险决策分析不利。应用盲数理论,探讨了基于不确定信息下的、潜在液化土层液化等级的盲数风险评价模型,实现计算过程中实测数据保留原有信息直接参与风险运算,并确保累积误差最小,避免人为假设和最大限度的忠实于给定实测数据,同时给出结果应用的风险度。实例应用表明:将盲数理论应用于液化等级风险评价是有效可行的,且取得较好的结果。此对其它工程风险分析也具有一定参考价值。
The traditional method used to specify the liquefaction grade may not provide the reliability information of the evaluation value from any single site for seismic design and decision-makers,which is important for risk decision and risk analysis of liquefaction hazard.Based on the uncertainty characteristics of risk evaluation on liquefaction grade and unascertained mathematics theory,a novel unascertained risk evaluation model is proposed.On the basis of a concept of unascertained number,the parameters of geological environmental system such as groundwater table,buried depth and clay particle content of soil layer,value of site standard penetration tests(SPT) and etc.are specified as unascertained parameters in order to establish a risk evaluation model.The possible interval value and faith degree responding to the liquefaction grade can be obtained through this model.This proposed method carries out directly the analysis process with all actual information of parameters.It can ensure the accumulated error to be minimized,and avoid the artificial supposition,and simultaneously give the faith degree of evaluation results.The results from the practical example show that the method used to assess sand liquefaction grade is feasible and effective,and that the results are satisfactory.This proposed method is of certain reference value to the risk analysis of other projects.
The traditional method used to specify the liquefaction grade may not provide the reliability information of the evaluation value from any single site for seismic design and decision-makers,which is important for risk decision and risk analysis of liquefaction hazard.Based on the uncertainty characteristics of risk evaluation on liquefaction grade and unascertained mathematics theory,a novel unascertained risk evaluation model is proposed.On the basis of a concept of unascertained number,the parameters of geological environmental system such as groundwater table,buried depth and clay particle content of soil layer,value of site standard penetration tests(SPT) and etc.are specified as unascertained parameters in order to establish a risk evaluation model.The possible interval value and faith degree responding to the liquefaction grade can be obtained through this model.This proposed method carries out directly the analysis process with all actual information of parameters.It can ensure the accumulated error to be minimized,and avoid the artificial supposition,and simultaneously give the faith degree of evaluation results.The results from the practical example show that the method used to assess sand liquefaction grade is feasible and effective,and that the results are satisfactory.This proposed method is of certain reference value to the risk analysis of other projects.
引文
[1]GB 50011—2001建筑抗震设计规范[S].2002.(GB 50011—2001 Code for seismic design of buildings[S].2002.(in Chinese))
[2]陈新民.地震砂土液化可能性的非确定性灰色预测方法[J].南京建筑工程学院学报,1997,41(2):64–68.(CHEN Xin-min.Indeterminate gray prediction method of possibility of sand liquefaction during earthquake[J].Journal of Nanjing Architectural and Civil Engineering Institute,1997,41(2):64–68.(in Chinese))
[3]陈育民,刘汉龙,周云东.液化及液化后砂土的流动特性分析[J].岩土工程学报,2006,28(9):1139–1143.(CHEN Yu-min,LIU Han-long,ZHOU Yun-dong.Analysis on flow characteristics of liquefied and post-liquefied sand[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2006,28(9):1139–1143.(in Chinese))
[4]汪明武,罗国煜.最优化法在砂土液化势评价中的应用[J].岩土工程学报,1999,21(6):704–706.(WANG Ming-wu,LUO Guo-yu.Application of optimization method to assessment of sand liquefaction potential[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1999,21(6):704–706.(in Chinese))
[5]汪明武,罗国煜.可靠性分析在砂土液化势评价中的应用[J].岩土工程学报,2000,22(5):542–544.(WANG Ming-wu,LUO Guo-yu.Application of reliability analysis to assessment of sand liquefaction potential[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2000,22(5):542–544.(in Chinese))
[6]汪明武,金菊良,李丽.基于实码加速遗传算法的投影寻踪方法在砂土液化势评价中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(4):631–634.(WANG Ming-wu,JIN Ju-liang,LI Li.Application of PP method based on RAGA to assessment of sand liquefaction potential[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(4):631–634.(in Chinese))
[7]陈国兴,李方明.基于径向基函数神经网络模型的砂土液化概率判别方法[J].岩土工程学报,2006,28(3):301–305.(CHEN Guo-xing,LI Fang-ming.Probabilistic estimation of sand liquefaction based on neural network model of radial basis function[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2006,28(3):301–305.(in Chinese))
[8]周锡元,苏经宇,樊水荣.液化危害评价的模糊概率方法及其应用[J].地震工程与工程振动,1992,12(4):93–101.(ZHOU Xi-yuan,SU Jing-yu,FAN Shui-rong.Fuzzy-probability method for soil liquefaction hazard evaluation and its application[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,1992,12(4):93–101.(in Chinese))
[9]王光远.论未确知信息及其数学处理[J].哈尔滨建筑工程学院学报,1990,23(4):1–10.(WANG Gang-yuan.Unasceratined information and mathematic treating[J].Journal of Harbin University of Architecture and Engineering,1990,23(4):1–10.(in Chinese))
[10]刘开第,吴和琴,庞彦军,等.不确定性信息数学处理及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.(LIU Kai-di,WU He-qin,PANG Yan-jun,et al.Unascertained information mathematic treating and application[M].Beijing:Science Press,1999.(in Chinese))
[11]李如忠,王超,汪家权,等.不确定性信息下河道型水库纳污能力计算初探[J].环境科学研究,2003,16(3):23–26.(LI Ru-zhong,WANG Chao,WANG Jia-quan,et al.Prmary study on calculation of water environmental capacity of main stream reservoir under unascertained information[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2003,16(3):23–26.(in Chinese))
[12]汪明武.区域稳定性智能评价与控制的模型及方法研究[D].南京:南京大学,1999.(WANG Ming-wu.Research on intelligent model and method of assesment and control for regional stability[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University,1999.(in Chinese))
[2]陈新民.地震砂土液化可能性的非确定性灰色预测方法[J].南京建筑工程学院学报,1997,41(2):64–68.(CHEN Xin-min.Indeterminate gray prediction method of possibility of sand liquefaction during earthquake[J].Journal of Nanjing Architectural and Civil Engineering Institute,1997,41(2):64–68.(in Chinese))
[3]陈育民,刘汉龙,周云东.液化及液化后砂土的流动特性分析[J].岩土工程学报,2006,28(9):1139–1143.(CHEN Yu-min,LIU Han-long,ZHOU Yun-dong.Analysis on flow characteristics of liquefied and post-liquefied sand[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2006,28(9):1139–1143.(in Chinese))
[4]汪明武,罗国煜.最优化法在砂土液化势评价中的应用[J].岩土工程学报,1999,21(6):704–706.(WANG Ming-wu,LUO Guo-yu.Application of optimization method to assessment of sand liquefaction potential[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1999,21(6):704–706.(in Chinese))
[5]汪明武,罗国煜.可靠性分析在砂土液化势评价中的应用[J].岩土工程学报,2000,22(5):542–544.(WANG Ming-wu,LUO Guo-yu.Application of reliability analysis to assessment of sand liquefaction potential[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2000,22(5):542–544.(in Chinese))
[6]汪明武,金菊良,李丽.基于实码加速遗传算法的投影寻踪方法在砂土液化势评价中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(4):631–634.(WANG Ming-wu,JIN Ju-liang,LI Li.Application of PP method based on RAGA to assessment of sand liquefaction potential[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(4):631–634.(in Chinese))
[7]陈国兴,李方明.基于径向基函数神经网络模型的砂土液化概率判别方法[J].岩土工程学报,2006,28(3):301–305.(CHEN Guo-xing,LI Fang-ming.Probabilistic estimation of sand liquefaction based on neural network model of radial basis function[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2006,28(3):301–305.(in Chinese))
[8]周锡元,苏经宇,樊水荣.液化危害评价的模糊概率方法及其应用[J].地震工程与工程振动,1992,12(4):93–101.(ZHOU Xi-yuan,SU Jing-yu,FAN Shui-rong.Fuzzy-probability method for soil liquefaction hazard evaluation and its application[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,1992,12(4):93–101.(in Chinese))
[9]王光远.论未确知信息及其数学处理[J].哈尔滨建筑工程学院学报,1990,23(4):1–10.(WANG Gang-yuan.Unasceratined information and mathematic treating[J].Journal of Harbin University of Architecture and Engineering,1990,23(4):1–10.(in Chinese))
[10]刘开第,吴和琴,庞彦军,等.不确定性信息数学处理及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.(LIU Kai-di,WU He-qin,PANG Yan-jun,et al.Unascertained information mathematic treating and application[M].Beijing:Science Press,1999.(in Chinese))
[11]李如忠,王超,汪家权,等.不确定性信息下河道型水库纳污能力计算初探[J].环境科学研究,2003,16(3):23–26.(LI Ru-zhong,WANG Chao,WANG Jia-quan,et al.Prmary study on calculation of water environmental capacity of main stream reservoir under unascertained information[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2003,16(3):23–26.(in Chinese))
[12]汪明武.区域稳定性智能评价与控制的模型及方法研究[D].南京:南京大学,1999.(WANG Ming-wu.Research on intelligent model and method of assesment and control for regional stability[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University,1999.(in Chinese))
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