华北地区强震时空相关性特征分析
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摘要
通过提出时空比例系数 fts,从而引入时空距离这一概念 ,并因此将地震事件的时空属性耦合在一起 .借助时空距离概念 ,对华北地区公元 1 5 0 0年以来的强震对进行了时空相关性分析 .结果表明 ,当 fts取 1 0 km/a时 ,强震对沿时空距离轴大致分为两类 :时空距离小于 1 40km的强震对彼此具有一定成因关系 ;而相距 2 80 km以上的强震则为互相独立的地震事件 .该特征可为华北地区强震迁移规律的总结以及趋势预测提供参考
In order to unify the time and the space attributes into temporal-spatial distance, the temporal-spatial proportional coefficient f ts is proposed in this paper. In accordance with the new distance concept, the temporal-spatial correlativity within temporal doublets of strong earthquakes in North China and its vicinity since AD 1500 has been analyzed. The computation results indicate that doublets of strong earthquake can be divided into two groups when f ts is endowed with 10 km/a in the new distance formula. The temporal-spatial distance between two points of doublet generally cannot exceed 140 km when two strong quakes in doublet have some causative relation. And those doublets whose temporal-spatial distance exceed 280 km are probably independent seismic events in doublets. This character can be the reference to the migration law summarization and trend prediction.
In order to unify the time and the space attributes into temporal-spatial distance, the temporal-spatial proportional coefficient f ts is proposed in this paper. In accordance with the new distance concept, the temporal-spatial correlativity within temporal doublets of strong earthquakes in North China and its vicinity since AD 1500 has been analyzed. The computation results indicate that doublets of strong earthquake can be divided into two groups when f ts is endowed with 10 km/a in the new distance formula. The temporal-spatial distance between two points of doublet generally cannot exceed 140 km when two strong quakes in doublet have some causative relation. And those doublets whose temporal-spatial distance exceed 280 km are probably independent seismic events in doublets. This character can be the reference to the migration law summarization and trend prediction.
引文
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张国民,傅征祥.1985.华北强震的时间分布特点及其物理解释[J].地球物理学报,28(6):569～578
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张诚.1990 a.中国震例(1966～1975)[M].北京:地震出版社,1～211
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KafkaA L,LevinSZ.2000.Does the spatial distribution of smaller earthquakes delineate areas where larger earthquakesare likely to occur?[J].BullSeismSocAmer,90(3):724～738
KaganY Y,KnopoffL.1980.Spatial distribution of earthquakes:the two-pointcorrelation function[J].GeophysJ R astrSoc.62:303～320
KaganY Y,JacksonD D.1999.Worldwide doubletsof large shallow earthquakes[J].BullSeismSocAmer,89(5):1147～1155
BethouxN,OuillonG,NicalasM.1998.The instrumentalseismicity of the westernAlps:Spatio-temporal pattern analysedwith the wavelettransform[J].GeophysJ Int,135:177～194
傅征祥,姜立新.1997.中国大陆及邻区大尺度浅源强震空间分布的不均匀性及其板块耦合机制[J].中国地震,13(1):1～10
傅征祥.1997.中国大陆地震活动性力学研究[M].北京:地震出版社,113～162
胡聿贤.1990.地震危险性分析中的综合概率法[M].北京:地震出版社,1～8
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.1994.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二[J].地震学报,16(4):423～432
陆远忠,郑兆,陈宇卫,等.1990.我国大陆强震活动的分期及趋势预测[A].见:国家地震局分析预报中心编.中国地震大形式预测研究[C].北京:地震出版社,34～49
马宗晋,傅征祥,张郢珍,等.1982.1966～1976年中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社,190～197
童远林.2000.一种可能的中强地震空间分布方式[J].地震,19(4):1～5
王炜.1987.华东地区五次中强震前地震危险度D值的异常变化[J].地震,(1):17～25
王炜,刘震华.1987.地震时间间隔的统计分布及其地震危险度D值在华北大震前的异常变化[J].地震学报,9(2):113～127
王炜,潘坚云,黄冰树.1989.地震空间集中度C值及其在地震预报中的应用[A].见:国家地震局科技司编.地震预报方法实用化研究文集(地震学专集)[C].北京:学术期刊出版社,127～143
闻学泽,AllenC R,罗灼礼,等.1989.鲜水河全新世断裂带的分段性、几何特征及其地震构造意义[J].地震学报,11(4):362～372
吴开统,焦远碧,吕培苓,等.1990.地震序列概论[M].北京:北京大学出版社,124～179
杨丽萍,夏玉胜,王小平,等.2000.中国大陆西部及邻区地震时空分布特征及其强震趋势预测[J].西北地震学报,22(4):429～435
赵根模,刁桂苓.1997.黄海和渤海域地震空间分布的集群分析[J].中国地震,13(1):27～35
张国民,傅征祥.1985.华北强震的时间分布特点及其物理解释[J].地球物理学报,28(6):569～578
张国民.1987.我国大陆强震活动的韵律特征[J].地震地质,9(2):27～37
张诚.1990 a.中国震例(1966～1975)[M].北京:地震出版社,1～211
张诚.1990 b.中国震例(1976～1980)[M].北京:地震出版社,59～105
AmoreseD,LagardeJ L,LavilleE.1999.A point pattern analysis of the distribution of earthquakes inNormandy(France)[J].BullSeismSocAmer,89(3):742～749
EnevaM,HamburgerM.1989.Spatial and tempralpatternsof earthquake distribution inBullSeismSocAmer sovietcentralAsia:Application of pair analysis statistics[J].BullSeismSocAmer,79:1457～1476
KafkaA L,LevinSZ.2000.Does the spatial distribution of smaller earthquakes delineate areas where larger earthquakesare likely to occur?[J].BullSeismSocAmer,90(3):724～738
KaganY Y,KnopoffL.1980.Spatial distribution of earthquakes:the two-pointcorrelation function[J].GeophysJ R astrSoc.62:303～320
KaganY Y,JacksonD D.1999.Worldwide doubletsof large shallow earthquakes[J].BullSeismSocAmer,89(5):1147～1155
BethouxN,OuillonG,NicalasM.1998.The instrumentalseismicity of the westernAlps:Spatio-temporal pattern analysedwith the wavelettransform[J].GeophysJ Int,135:177～194
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